Abstract
This report analyses supply and demand in Poland' s changing dairy, grain,
rice, sugar and livestock
sectors. It considers recent developments and
looks at how production levels and consumption are likely
to play out to
the end of the forecast period in 2013.
Poland is one of the EU' s most
important agricultural product providers. It is a significant producer of
wheat, sugar beet, pork, poultry and milk, and, although only touched upon by
this report, it is one of the
leading EU suppliers of rye, triticale,
oats, rape, potatoes, carrots, onions, apples and cherries. It is
generally a net exporter of meat and dairy products. About 77% of the
agricultural land is arable, 2% is
covered by orchards and about 20% is
permanent pasture.
Agri-food exports have increased considerably in recent
years, in 2008 the value of foreign sales reached
EUR11.3bn, up 12.1%
compared to the year before (Ministry of Agriculture). Most of the exports,
worth
EUR8.5bn, went to the EU-27, Germany being the biggest market. The
value of imported agri-food
products in 2008 was EUR9.8bn, up 21.7% on
2007.
Since joining the EU Poland' s agriculture industry has been, and is
still being, forced into significant
change in order to be competitive. In
an effort to encourage consolidation of the fragmented farming
system; to
help bring farms and processing units up to EU production, health and safety
standards, and to
help give impetus to the food industry, the EU, in
conjunction with the national government, has handed
over billions of
euros in subsidies and other types of financial support. Additional support is
provided by
the World Bank.
Slowly this seems to be working and
despite inevitable fluctuations in market conditions for certain
products
(the pig industry has suffered in the recent EU pig crisis), farms are
generally becoming more
productive, farmers are generally becoming richer
and the food industry is developing well.
All this has helped expand the
larger Polish economy, which in recent years has seen a significant
improvement in GDP and consumer spending power (although the recession is now
taking a toll - in May
2009 the IMF approved a one year US$20.58bn
arrangement for Poland under the Flexible Credit Line).
The westernisation
of consumer food preferences is providing further opportunities for
agricultural
producers and processors and the winners will be those who
can adapt best. Poland' s encouragement of
foreign investment in the food
industry is helping to meet shifting consumer demands and drive the
industry forward.
Significant opportunities still remain in some sectors
such as organic production, which could particularly
suit many of Poland' s
small farms. Conversely, a greater acceptance of genetically modified (GM)
organisms could help crop and livestock producers.
In response to the EU
Renewable Energy Directive which stipulates that by 2020 at least 10% of
fuel
used in transport will be from biofuel or electric power, there is
some excitement about the possible
benefits of domestic biofuel production
for crop and sugar beet growers. However, it remains to be seen
how this
plays out. According to a Reuters report Poland is the fourth biggest EU
producer of bio-ethanol,
though a long way behind France, Germany and
Spain.
The current economic downturn is of course a threat to Poland' s
agricultural sector, as it is to most others
around the world.
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