Abstract
The new Taiwan Power Report from BMI forecasts that the country will account
for 3.20% of Asia
Pacific regional power generation by 2013, with a
generation surplus that provides a theoretical export
capability.
BMI’s Asia Pacific power generation assumption for 2008 is 7,093
terawatt hours (TWh),
representing an increase of 3.2% over the previous
year. We are forecasting an increase in regional
generation to 9,099TWh by
2013, representing a rise of 28.3%.
Asia Pacific thermal power generation
in 2008 totalled an estimated 5,570TWh, accounting for 78.5% of
the total
electricity supplied in the region. Our forecast for 2013 is 6,999TWh,
implying 25.7% growth
that reduces the market share of thermal generation
to 76.9% – thanks largely to environmental concerns
promoting
renewables, hydro-electricity and nuclear generation. Taiwan’s thermal
generation in 2008 was
an estimated 208TWh, or 3.74% of the regional
total. By 2013, the country is expected to account for
3.25% of thermal
generation.
For Taiwan, oil is the dominant fuel, accounting for an
estimated 45.6% of 2007 primary energy demand
(PED), followed by coal at
35.7%, natural gas at 9.2% and nuclear power with an 8.0% share of PED.
Regional energy demand is forecast to reach 4,859mn tonnes of oil equivalent
(toe) by 2013, representing
24.9% growth from the estimated 2008 level.
Taiwan’s estimated 2008 market share of 3.05% is set to
fall to
2.66% by 2013. The country’s estimated 42TWh of nuclear demand in 2008
is forecast to reach
54TWh by 2013, with its share of the Asia Pacific
nuclear market rising from 8.23% to 8.25% over the
period.
Taiwan is
ranked last, behind even Singapore, in BMI’s Power Business Environment
rating, thanks
largely to the reasonable size of the market, poor
competitive landscape, limited growth potential and
reasonable country
risk profile. The country may, over the longer term, to be able to challenge
Singapore
above it.
BMI is forecasting now Taiwanese real GDP growth
averaging 1.34% per annum between 2009 and
2013, with a decline of 4.50%
expected in 2009. Population is expected to expand from 23.0mn to
23.5mn
over the period, with GDP per capita and electricity consumption per capita
forecast to increase
by 12% and 9% respectively. The country’s power
consumption is expected to increase from an estimated
203TWh in 2008 to
225TWh by the end of the forecast period, leaving surplus generation rising
from
56TWh in 2008 to 66TWh in 2013, assuming 1.9% annual growth in
generating capacity.
Between 2008 and 2018, we are forecasting an increase
in Taiwanese electricity generation of 31.3%,
which is near the bottom of
the range for the Asia Pacific region. This equates to 16.7% in the
2013-2018
period, up from 12.5% in 2007-2012. PED growth is set to
increase from 8.8% in 2008-2013 to 13.9%,
representing 24.0% for the
entire forecast period. Nuclear generation is expected to rise by 69%
between
2008 and 2018, with hydro use up 46% over the same period. Thermal
power generation is forecast to rise
by 23% between 2008 and 2018. More
details of the long-term BMI power forecasts can be found later in
this
report.
| 
View Cart
