Abstract
In 2009 BMI believes that the throughput trends at Turkey' s ports will follow
the pattern of the country' s
trade sector. We predict that both imports
and exports will fall in 2009, by 9.5 and 5 percent respectively.
A
recovery is set to begin in 2010 with total trade growth forecast to increase
by 3.3%. An average yearly
growth of 8% between 2011 and 2013 is predicted
after that.
In 2009, we expect the total throughput of general and liquid
bulk cargoes at the port of Ambarli to
decrease to 2.8mn tonnes,
representing 30.69% fall on 2008, when the port handled 4.1mn tonnes of
same
types of cargo. We anticipate the recovery of throughput volumes to
start in 2010. In the mid-term (2011-
2013) we expect handling to increase
by 18.35% per year on average, with the 2008 figure to be exceeded
in
2012. According to our forecasts, in 2013, port' s throughput will amount to
4.9mn tonnes of general
and liquid bulk cargoes.
The container
handling, according to our estimates, will fall by 23.73% to 1.725mn TEUs in
2009. The
recovery will start in 2010, and in 2012 the port will surpass
its 2008 handling figure of 2.262mn TEUs.
In the mid-term, between 2011
and 2013, the growth will continue by 13.67% per year on average. In
2013,
we expect the port to handle 2.630mn TEUs.
As well as an in-depth analysis
of Turkey' s shipping sector, the Q309 Turkey Shipping Report also offers
a
global overview of the dry bulk, liquid bulk and container sectors and
overviews of the 11 largest
shipping lines and their strategies over the
quarter to weather the downturn in trade volumes.
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