Abstract
The new Algeria Power Report from BMI forecasts that Algeria will by 2013
account for 3.21% of
Middle East/Africa (MEA) regional power generation.
BMI’s MEA power generation estimate for 2008
is 1,200 terawatt hours
(TWh), representing an increase of 6.1% over the previous year. We are
forecasting an increase in regional generation to 1,566TWh by 2013,
representing a rise of 30.5%
between 2008 and the end of the period.
Thermal power generation in 2008 is estimated by BMI at 1,135TWh, accounting
for 94.6% of the total
electricity supplied in the region. Our forecast
for 2013 is 1,460TWh, implying 38.3% growth that
reduces slightly the
market share of thermal generation to 93.2% – thanks in part to
environmental
concerns that should be promoting renewables,
hydro-electricity and nuclear generation. Algeria’s
thermal
generation in 2008 was an estimated 39.6TWh, or 3.49% of the regional total.
By 2013, the
country is expected to account for 3.39% of thermal
generation.
The regional energy preference is for oil, which accounted for
45.6% of 2008 primary energy demand
(PED). Next in line is gas, with a
39.2% market share. Coal takes a 12.3% share of the regional energy
pie,
with nuclear accounting for 0.3% and hydro-electric energy representing 2.6%
of regional demand.
For Algeria, gas was the dominant fuel in 2008,
accounting for 60.6% of PED, followed by oil at 37.2%,
and coal with a
2.0% share of PED. Regional energy demand is forecast to reach 871.0mn tonnes
of oil
equivalent (toe) by 2013, representing 18.5% growth over the period
since 2008. Algeria’s 2008 market
share of 5.11% is set to climb to
5.22% by 2013.
Algeria is now shares last place with Kuwait in BMI’s
updated Power Business Environment rating, in
spite of its low energy
import dependency and healthy energy demand growth prospects. Regulatory
issues and privatisation progress lag the regional average and, although
certain country risk factors are
more favourable than the regional norm,
the country seems destined to vie with Kuwait for the bottom
slot of the
league table.
BMI is now forecasting Algerian real GDP growth averaging
3.77% per annum between 2008 and 2013,
with the 2009 forecast being 2.50%.
Population is expected to expand from 34.4mn to 37.1mn over the
period,
with GDP per capita and electricity consumption per capita forecast to
increase by 8% and 16%
respectively. Power consumption amounted to an
estimated 29.9TWh in 2008 and is forecast to reach
37.2TWh by the end of
the forecast period, providing a broadly balanced market, assuming 5.3%
annual
growth in electricity generation.
Between 2008 and 2018, we are
forecasting an increase in Algerian electricity generation of 56.7%,
which
is mid-range for the MEA region. This equates to 24.6% in the 2013-2018
period, down from
25.8% in 2008-2013. PED growth is set to increase from
21.0% in 2008-2013 to 23.4%, representing
49.4% for the entire forecast
period. An increase of 367% in hydro-power use during 2008-2018 is one
key
element of generation growth. Thermal power generation is forecast to rise by
54% between 2008
and 2018. More details of the longer-term BMI power
forecasts can be found at the end of this report.
| 
View Cart
