Abstract
The new Egypt Power Report from BMI forecasts that the country will account
for 9.99% of Middle
East/Africa (MEA) regional power generation by 2013,
with a modest theoretical generation surplus.
BMI’s MEA power
generation estimate for 2008 is 1,200 terawatt hours (TWh), representing an
increase
of 6.1% over the previous year. We are forecasting an increase in
regional generation to 1,566TWh by
2013, representing a rise of 30.5%
between 2008 and the end of the period.
MEA thermal power generation in
2008 is estimated by BMI at 1,135TWh, accounting for 94.6% of the
total
electricity supplied in the region. Our forecast for 2013 is 1,460TWh,
implying 38.3% growth that
reduces slightly the market share of thermal
generation to 93.2% – thanks in part to environmental
concerns that
should be promoting renewables, hydro-electricity and nuclear generation.
Egypt’s thermal
generation in 2008 was an estimated 109TWh, or 9.60%
of the regional total. By 2013, the country is
expected to account for
9.16% of thermal generation.
For Egypt, gas was in 2008 the dominant fuel,
accounting for 49.5% of primary energy demand (PED),
followed by oil at
43.9% and hydro with a 5.3% share of PED. Regional energy demand is forecast
to
reach 871.0mn tonnes of oil equivalent (toe) by 2013, representing
18.5% growth over the period since
2008. Egypt’s 2008 market share
of 10.10% is set to rise to 10.13% by 2013. The country’s 18.9TWh of
hydro generation in 2008 is forecast to reach 22.6TWh by 2013, with its share
of the MEA hydro market
falling from 63.0% to 41.9% over the period.
Egypt is once again ranked second in BMI’s updated Power Business
Environment rating, reflecting its
market size and high proportion of
renewables (hydro-power) use. While the regulatory environment is
not
particularly attractive, the power sector is modestly competitive, with some
progress towards
privatisation. Egypt is just two points behind the UAE
and can be expected to mount a fresh challenge for
regional leadership
during the next few quarters.
BMI is now forecasting real GDP growth
averaging 4.37% per annum between 2008 and 2013, with the
2009 forecast
being 3.70%. Population is expected to expand from 76.3mn to 82.8mn over the
period,
with GDP per capita and electricity consumption per capita
forecast to increase by 78% and 10%,
respectively. The country’s
power consumption is expected to increase from an estimated 112TWh in
2008
to 134TWh by the end of the forecast period, while theoretical surplus
capacity is forecast to be
23TWh in 2013, assuming 4.7% annual growth in
electricity generation.
Between 2008 and 2018, we are forecasting an
increase in Egyptian electricity generation of 49.4%,
which is towards the
middle of the range for the MEA region. This equates to 22.2% in the
2013-2018
period, unchanged from 22.2% in 2008-2013. PED growth is set to
remain around 18.8% in 2013-2018,
unchanged from the 18.8% expected for
2008-2013, representing 41.0% for the entire forecast period. An
increase
of 52% in hydro-power use during 2008-2018 is one key element of generation
growth. Thermal
power generation is forecast to rise by 49% between 2008
and 2018. More details of the longer-term BMI
power forecasts can be found
later in this report.
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