Abstract
The new France Power Report from BMI forecasts that the country will account
for 7.74% of Developed
Markets power generation by 2013, and to remain a
net exporter of electricity to neighbouring states.
BMI’s Developed
Markets power generation estimate for 2008 is 7,443 terawatt hours (TWh),
representing a decrease of 0.6% over the previous year. We are forecasting a
rise in regional generation to
7,749TWh by 2013, representing an increase
of 4.1%.
Thermal power generation in 2008 is estimated by BMI at 4,819TWh,
accounting for 64.7% of the total
electricity supplied in the region. Our
forecast for 2013 is 4,993TWh, implying 3.6% growth that leaves
the market
share of thermal generation only slightly lower at 64.4% – in spite of
environmental concerns
that should be promoting renewables,
hydro-electricity and nuclear generation. France’s thermal
generation in 2008 was an estimated 70TWh, or 1.45% of the regional total. By
2013, the country is
expected to account for 1.41% of thermal
generation.
For France, nuclear energy is the dominant fuel, accounting
for 38.6% of primary energy demand (PED),
followed by oil at 35.7%, gas at
15.4%, coal with a 4.6% share of PED and hydro-electric power with
5.6%.
Developed markets energy demand is forecast to reach 4,028mn tonnes of oil
equivalent (toe) by
2013, representing 3.8% growth over the period.
France’s 2008 market share of 6.64% is set to fall to
6.59% by 2013.
France’s 440TWh of nuclear demand in 2008 is forecast to reach 460TWh by
2013, with
its share of the Developed Markets nuclear market rising from
26.08% to 26.37% over the period.
BMI is now forecasting French real GDP
growth averaging 0.62% per annum between 2008 and 2013,
with the 2009
forecast being a decline of 3.00%. Population is expected to expand from
63.9mn to
64.9mn over the period, but GDP per capita and electricity
consumption per capita are forecast to be little
changed by 2013. The
country’s power consumption is expected to increase from an estimated
455TWh
in 2008 to 467TWh by the end of the forecast period, providing
export capability of around 130TWh,
assuming 0.9% annual growth in
generating capacity.
Between 2008 and 2018, we are forecasting an increase
in French electricity generation of 12.3%, which
is in the middle of the
range for the developed markets. This equates to 7.5% in the 2013-2018 period,
up
from 4.5% in 2008-2013. PED growth is set to fall from 2.9% in
2008-2013 to 1.8%, representing 4.7%
for the entire forecast period. An
increase of 26% in hydro-power use during 2008-2018 is one key
element of
generation growth. Thermal power generation is forecast to rise by just 6%
between 2008 and
2018, with nuclear demand rising by 11%. More details of
the longer-term BMI power forecasts can be
found at the end of this
report.
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