Abstract
The new Germany Power Report from BMI forecasts that the country will account
for 8.39% of
Developed Markets power generation by 2013, while retaining
an electricity export capability. BMI’s
Developed Markets power
generation estimate for 2008 is 7,443 terawatt hours (TWh), representing a
decrease of 0.6% over the previous year. We are forecasting a rise in regional
generation to 7,749TWh by
2013, representing an increase of 4.1%.
Thermal power generation in 2008 is estimated by BMI at 4,819TWh, accounting
for 64.7% of the total
electricity supplied in the region. Our forecast
for 2013 is 4,993TWh, implying 3.6% growth that leaves
the market share of
thermal generation only slightly lower at 64.4% – in spite of
environmental concerns
that should be promoting renewables,
hydro-electricity and nuclear generation. Germany’s thermal
generation in 2008 is estimated at 457TWh, or 9.48% of the regional total. By
2013, the country is
expected to account for 9.54% of thermal
generation.
For Germany, oil is the dominant fuel, accounting for 38% of
primary energy demand (PED), followed by
coal at 26%, gas at almost 24%,
nuclear energy at 11% and hydro-power with a 1.4% share of PED.
Developed
markets energy demand is forecast to reach 4,028mn tonnes of oil equivalent
(toe) by 2013,
representing 3.8% growth over the period. Germany’s
2008 market share of 8.01% is set to rise slightly to
8.09% by 2013.
Germany’s 149TWh of 2008 nuclear demand is forecast to decline to 130TWh
by 2013,
with its share of the Developed Markets nuclear market falling
from 8.81% to 7.45% over the period.
BMI is now forecasting German real
GDP growth averaging 0.20% per annum between 2008 and 2013,
although the
2009 forecast is a decline of 5.80%. Population is expected to expand from
82.2mn to
82.9mn over the period, and GDP per capita and electricity
consumption per capita are forecast to fall by
9% and 4% respectively. The
country’s power consumption is expected to decrease from an
estimated
553TWh in 2008 to 534TWh by the end of the forecast period,
providing exports rising from an estimated
86TWh in 2008 to 115TWh in
2013, assuming just 0.3% annual growth in generation.
Between 2008 and
2018, we are forecasting an increase in German electricity generation of
10.3%, which
is close to the bottom of the range for the developed
markets. This equates to 8.7% in the 2013-2018
period, up from 1.5% in
2008-2013. PED growth is set to fall from 4.7% in 2008-2013 to a contraction
of
2.0% during 2013-2018, representing 2.7% for the entire forecast
period. An increase of 94% in hydropower
use during 2008-2018 is one key
element of generation growth. Thermal power generation is
forecast to rise
by 16% between 2008 and 2018, with nuclear demand falling by 16%. More details
of the
longer-term BMI power forecasts can be found later in this
report.
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