Abstract
The new Hong Kong Power Report from BMI forecasts that the country will
account for just 0.49% of
Asia Pacific regional power generation by 2013,
with a continuing requirement to import electricity from
the Chinese
mainland. BMI’s Asia Pacific power generation assumption for 2008 is
7,093 terawatt hours
(TWh), representing an increase of 3.2% over the
previous year. We are forecasting an increase in
regional generation to
9,099TWh by 2013, representing a rise of 28.3%.
Asia Pacific thermal power
generation in 2008 totalled an estimated 5,570TWh, accounting for 78.5% of
the total electricity supplied in the region. Our forecast for 2013 is
6,999TWh, implying 25.7% growth
that reduces the market share of thermal
generation to 76.9% – thanks largely to environmental concerns
promoting renewables, hydro-electricity and nuclear generation. Hong
Kong’s thermal generation in 2008
is estimated at 39.0TWh, or 0.70%
of the regional total. By 2013, the country is expected to account for
0.64% of thermal generation.
For Hong Kong, oil is the dominant fuel,
accounting for 63.7% of 2007 primary energy demand (PED),
followed by coal
at 26.3%, and gas at 10.1%. Indirectly, Hong Kong is a significant nuclear
energy
consumer, in that imported electricity is generated by nuclear
sites on the Chinese mainland. Regional
energy demand is forecast to reach
4,859mn toe by 2013, representing 24.9% growth from the estimated
2008
level. Hong Kong’s estimated 2008 market share of 0.83% is set to ease
to 0.80% by 2013.
Hong Kong is ranked eighth in BMI’s Power Business
Environment rating, thanks to its modest market
size and average growth
prospects. Certain country risk factors offset some of the industry weakness,
but
the country seems destined to vie with the Philippines and South Korea
near the foot of the table for the
foreseeable future.
BMI is now
forecasting Hong Kong real GDP growth averaging 2.18% per annum between 2009
and
2013, with the 2009 forecast being a decline of 5.70%. Population is
expected to expand from 7.0mn to
7.3mn over the period, with GDP per
capita and electricity consumption per capita forecast to increase by
17%
and 3% respectively. The country’s power consumption is expected to
increase from an estimated
48.5TWh in 2008 to 51.9TWh by the end of the
forecast period, requiring electricity imports easing from
9.5TWh in 2008
to at least 7.4TWh in 2013, assuming 2.3% annual growth in generating
capacity.
Mainland China will be the provider of imported power, largely
from nuclear facilities.
Between 2008 and 2018, we are forecasting an
increase in Hong Kong electricity generation of 34.2%,
which is towards
the lower end of the range for the Asia Pacific region. This equates to 17.6%
in the
2013-2018 period, up from 14.1% in 2008-2013. PED growth is set to
fall from 21.5% in 2008-2013 to
12.0%, representing 36.1% for the entire
forecast period. Thermal power generation is forecast to rise by
34.2%
between 2008 and 2018. More detail of the long-term BMI power forecasts can be
found later in
this report.
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