Abstract
The new Iran Power Report from BMI forecasts that the country will account for
16.26% of Middle East
and Africa (MEA) regional power generation by 2013.
BMI’s Middle East/Africa power generation
estimate for 2008 is 1,200
terawatt hours (TWh), representing an increase of 6.1% over the previous
year.
We are forecasting an increase in regional generation to 1,566TWh by
2013, representing a rise of 30.5%
between 2008 and the end of the
period.
MEA thermal power generation in 2008 is estimated by BMI at
1,135TWh, accounting for 94.6% of the
total electricity supplied in the
region. Our forecast for 2013 is 1,460TWh, implying 38.3% growth that
reduces slightly the market share of thermal generation to 93.2% –
thanks in part to environmental
concerns that should be promoting
renewables, hydro-electricity and nuclear generation. Iran’s thermal
generation in 2008 was an estimated 198TWh, or 17.45% of the regional total.
By 2013, the country is
expected to account for 15.66% of regional thermal
generation.
For Iran, gas was the dominant fuel in 2008, accounting for
55.1% of primary energy demand (PED),
followed by oil at 43.3% and hydro
with a 0.9% share of PED. Regional energy demand is forecast to
reach
871.0mn tonnes of oil equivalent (toe) by 2013, representing 18.5% growth over
the period since
2008. Iran’s 2008 market share of 26.10% is set to
ease to 19.38% by 2013. Iran’s nuclear demand is
forecast to reach
8TWh by 2013, with its share of the MEA nuclear market rising to 32.0%.
Iran is ranked sixth in BMI’s updated Power Business Environment rating.
This reflects its market size
and relatively high proportion of renewables
(hydro-power) use. The power sector is not competitive,
with no
appreciable progress towards privatisation. The regulatory environment is
unattractive and the
risk outlook is suffering thanks to the controversy
over the country’s nuclear energy programme. We see
little scope for
improvement during the next few quarters.
BMI is now forecasting real GDP
growth for Iran averaging 3.80% per annum between 2008-2013, with
the 2009
estimate being 2.40%. The population is expected to expand from 72.2mn to
77.2mn over the
period, with GDP per capita and electricity consumption
per capita forecast to increase by 26% and 9%,
respectively. The
country’s power consumption is expected to increase from an estimated
182TWh in
2008 to 212TWh by the end of the forecast period, providing
export potential rising from an estimated
27TWh in 2008 to 43TWh in 2013,
assuming 4.5% annual growth in electricity generation. Losses during
power
transmission and distribution mean that the actual level of Iranian power
exports is well below the
theoretical surplus, but is set to rise.
Between 2008 and 2018, we are forecasting an increase in Iranian electricity
generation of 47.3%, which
is near the middle of the range for the MEA
region. This equates to 19.3% in the 2013-2018 period, down
from 23.4% in
2008-2013. PED growth is set to decrease from 19.4% in 2008-2013 to 16.7%,
representing 39.3% for the entire forecast period. The availability from 2010
of nuclear power is one key
element of generation growth. Thermal power
generation is forecast to rise by 37.3% between 2008 and
2018. More
details of the longer-term BMI power forecasts can be found later in this
report.
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