Abstract
The new Italy Power Report from BMI forecasts that the country will account
for 4.32% of Developed
Markets power generation by 2012. BMI’s
Developed Markets power generation estimate for 2008 is
7,443 terawatt
hours (TWh), representing a decrease of 0.6% over the previous year. We are
forecasting a
rise in regional generation to 7,749TWh by 2013,
representing an increase of 4.1%.
Thermal power generation in 2008 is
estimated by BMI at 4,819TWh, accounting for 64.7% of the total
electricity supplied in the region. Our forecast for 2013 is 4,993TWh,
implying 3.6% growth that leaves
the market share of thermal generation
only slightly lower at 64.4% – in spite of environmental concerns
that should be promoting renewables, hydro-electricity and nuclear generation.
Italy’s thermal generation
in 2008 is estimated at 275TWh, or 5.70%
of the regional total. By 2013, the country is expected to
account for
5.75% of thermal generation.
For Italy, oil is the dominant fuel,
accounting for 46% of primary energy demand (PED), followed by gas
at 40%,
coal at 10% and hydro-power with a 5% share of PED. Developed markets energy
demand is
forecast to reach 4,028mn tonnes of oil equivalent (toe) by
2013, representing 3.8% growth over the
period. Italy’s 2008 market
share of 4.55% is set to rise to 4.64% by 2013. Italy’s 39TWh of
hydro
demand in 2008 is forecast to reach 45TWh by 2013, with its share of
the Developed Markets hydro
market rising from 4.30% to 4.58% over the
period.
BMI is now forecasting zero Italian real GDP growth between 2008
and 2013, although the 2009 forecast
is a decline of 4.5%. Population is
expected to expand slightly from 59.0mn to 60.5mn over the period,
but GDP
per capita and electricity consumption per capita are forecast to decline by
9% and 2%
respectively. The country’s power consumption is expected
to increase from an estimated 318TWh in
2008 to 321TWh by the end of the
forecast period. We are assuming 1.1% annual growth in power
generation.
Between 2008 and 2018, we are forecasting an increase in
Italian electricity generation of 13.7%, which
is towards the middle of
the range for the developed markets. This equates to 8.0% in the 2013-2018
period, up from 5.4% in 2008-2013. PED growth is set to fall from 5.9% in
2008-2013 to 5.4% during
2013-2018, representing 11.6% for the entire
forecast period. An increase of 41% in hydro-power use
during 2008-2018 is
one key element of generation growth. Thermal power generation is forecast to
rise
by 10% between 2008 and 2018. More details of the longer-term BMI
power forecasts can be found later
in this report.
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