Abstract
In this report, BMI forecasts that Qatar will account for 1.79% of Middle East
and Africa (MEA) regional
power generation by 2013, having a broadly
balanced market throughout the period. BMI’s Middle
East/Africa
power generation estimate for 2008 is 1,200 terawatt hours (TWh), representing
an increase
of 6.1% over the previous year. We are forecasting an increase
in regional generation to 1,566TWh by
2013, representing a rise of 30.5%
between 2008 and the end of the period.
MEA thermal power generation in
2008 is estimated by BMI at 1,135TWh, accounting for 94.6% of the
total
electricity supplied in the region. Our forecast for 2013 is 1,460TWh,
implying 38.3% growth that
reduces slightly the market share of thermal
generation to 93.2% – thanks in part to environmental
concerns that
should be promoting renewables, hydro-electricity and nuclear generation.
Qatar’s thermal
generation in 2008 was 19.7TWh, or 1.74% of the
regional total. By 2013, the country is expected to
account for 19%1 of
thermal generation.
For Qatar, gas was the dominant fuel in 2008,
accounting for 79.4% of primary energy demand (PED),
followed by oil at
20.6%. Regional energy demand is forecast to reach 871.0mn tonnes of oil
equivalent
(toe) by 2013, representing 18.5% growth over the period since
2008. Qatar’s estimated 2008 market
share of 3.06% is set to rise to
3.08% by 2013.
Qatar is now ranked third behind Egypt in BMI’s
updated Power Business Environment rating, thanks
largely to its market
size, low level of energy import dependency and a particularly low proportion
of
renewables use. The power sector is competitive, with good progress
towards privatisation. The
regulatory environment remains relatively
unattractive. Qatar has the longer-term potential to challenge
Egypt for
second place.
BMI is now forecasting real GDP growth averaging 8.08% per
annum between 2008-2013, with the 2009
estimate being 6.70%. The
population is expected to expand from 1.45mn to 1.86mn over the period,
with
GDP per capita is forecast to decline by almost 9%, but electricity
consumption per capita is expected to
increase by 15% to 2013. The
country’s power consumption is expected to increase from an
estimated
18.0TWh in 2008 to 26.6TWh by the end of the forecast period,
providing a reasonably balanced market
that may require occasional import
top-ups to meet peak demand – assuming 8.1% annual growth in
electricity generation.
Between 2008 and 2018, we are forecasting an
increase in Qatari electricity generation of 115.3%, which
is the highest
in the range for the MEA region. This equates to 51.7% in the 2013-2018
period, up from
41.9% in 2008-2013. PED growth is set to increase from
19.1% in 2008-2013 to 22.0%, representing
45.3% for the entire forecast
period. Thermal power generation is forecast to rise by 115.3% between
2008 and 2018. More details of the longer-term BMI power forecasts can be
found towards the end of
this report.
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