Abstract
Since our last report, we have cut back our GDP growth forecasts. Following
the sharp 6.2% y-o-y
contraction in Romanian real GDP in the first quarter
of 2009, we now project a 5.7% economic
contraction. Moreover, we caution
that trend growth over the next five years will be ‘L-shaped’ as
lower
global growth will translate into weaker demand for Romanian goods
while reduced capital inflows, in
the form of loans and investment, will
weigh on demand. The overall effect on our freight traffic forecasts
is
therefore substantially negative. We are now predicting average annual growth
in freight carried across
all modes, measured in mntkm, of 2.1% in
2009-2013, ahead of GDP growth. Anti-crisis measures by the
government for
the transport sector could take the form of a relaxation of taxes for Romanian
carriers,
although nothing has been agreed yet. This is partly because
public funds are already being pressured, and
there is little room for tax
cuts. Another measure could be the halving of road tolls in 2009, which
would
have a great impact on overheads for road haulage firms, which are
suffering greatly in the current
recession.
In June 2009, the Deputy
Speaker in the Russian parliament, Valeri Yazev, urged Romania to join the
South Stream pipeline that will transport natural gas from Russia to Western
Europe. At the Black Sea
Economic Conference, Yazev called for Romania to
become a transit country for the pipeline, which is to
be completed in
2015. The 900km South Stream pipeline is planned to transport 31bcm from the
Russian
Black Sea port of Beregovaya under the Black Sea to Bulgaria, with
plans to expand capacity to 47bcm at
a later stage. From Bulgaria, the
pipeline will split into one north-western section to Austria and one
south-western section to Italy. Overall, the entire pipeline could be 3,200km
in length. It will bypass
traditional transit states Belarus and Ukraine,
with Russia arguing that the project is aimed at providing
greater
security of supply for European customers through diversification of transit
routes. However, in
order to reach Austria, Romania could prove a vital
transit country (currently the pipeline is set to go
through Bulgaria and
Serbia). Yet with Romania a key partner in the rival Nabucco pipeline, it is
unlikely
that the country will join South Stream. The European Union
Energy Commissioner was keen to stress in
June 2009 that although Romania
is providing some technical support for Russia’s Gazprom, which is
building South Stream, it will in no way imperil the Nabucco project.
In
March 2009, the National Union of Road Transporters in Romania warned that
1/5th of road freight
companies in Romania could go out of business by the
end of the year. The global financial meltdown has
resulted in a severe
liquidity crisis for freight transporters, while there has been a decline in
core markets
such as the automobile manufacturing sector. This has
resulted in a slump in orders, while other problems
include delayed
payments – as clients struggle for cash –and the extension of
invoice payments from 45
days to 90 days.
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