Abstract
The new Saudi Arabia Power Report from BMI forecasts that the country will
account for 16.84% of
Middle East and Africa (MEA) regional power
generation by 2013. BMI’s Middle East/Africa power
generation
estimate for 2008 is 1,200 terawatt hours (TWh), representing an increase of
6.1% over the
previous year. We are forecasting an increase in regional
generation to 1,566TWh by 2013, representing a
rise of 30.5% between 2008
and the end of the period.
MEA thermal power generation in 2008 is
estimated by BMI at 1,135TWh, accounting for 94.6% of the
total
electricity supplied in the region. Our forecast for 2013 is 1,460TWh,
implying 38.3% growth that
reduces slightly the market share of thermal
generation to 93.2% – thanks in part to environmental
concerns that
should be promoting renewables, hydro-electricity and nuclear generation.
Saudi Arabia’s
thermal generation in 2008 was an estimated 194TWh,
or 17.07% of the regional total. By 2013, the
country is expected to
account for 18.06% of thermal generation.
For Saudi Arabia, in 2008 oil
was the dominant fuel, accounting for 59.7% of primary energy demand
(PED), followed by gas at 40.3%. Regional energy demand is forecast to reach
871.0mn tonnes of oil
equivalent (toe) by 2013, representing 18.5% growth
over the period since 2008. Saudi Arabia’s 2008
market share of
23.73% is set to rise to 24.42% by 2013.
Saudi Arabia now shares fourth
place with South Africa in BMI’s updated Power Business Environment
rating, thanks largely to its considerable market size, low level of energy
import dependency and
particularly low proportion of renewables use. The
power sector is not competitive, with little progress
towards
privatisation. The regulatory environment remains relatively unattractive.
Saudi Arabia has
already been left behind by Qatar, and is only a point
ahead of Iran, although there should be little nearterm
risk from
below.
BMI is now forecasting real GDP growth averaging 3.48% per annum
between 2008 and 2013, with the
2009 estimate being 0.90%. The population
is expected to expand from 24.4mn to 26.5mn over the
period, with GDP per
capita and electricity consumption per capita forecast to rise by 3% and
28%
respectively. The country’s power consumption is expected to
increase from an estimated 183TWh in
2008 to 255TWh by the end of the
forecast period, with a broadly balanced market, assuming 6.0%
annual
growth in electricity generation.
Between 2008 and 2018, we are
forecasting an increase in Saudi electricity generation of 91.8%, which is
near the top of the range for the MEA region. This equates to 40.9% in the
2013-2018 period, up from
36.1% in 2008-2013. PED growth is set to
decrease from 21.9% in 2008-2013 to 15.1%, representing
40.3/% for the
entire forecast period. Thermal power generation is forecast to rise by 91.8%
between
2008 and 2018. More details of the longer-term BMI power forecasts
can be found later in this report
| 
View Cart
