Abstract
The new Spain Power Report from BMI forecasts the country will account for
4.45% of Developed
Markets power generation by 2013, and have the ability
to export small volumes of electricity to
neighbouring states. BMI’s
Developed Markets power generation estimate for 2008 is 7,443 terawatt
hours (TWh), representing a decrease of 0.6% over the previous year. We are
forecasting a rise in
regional generation to 7,749TWh by 2013,
representing an increase of 4.1%.
Thermal power generation in 2008 is
estimated by BMI at 4,819TWh, accounting for 64.7% of the total
electricity supplied in the region. Our forecast for 2013 is 4,993TWh,
implying 3.6% growth that leaves
the market share of thermal generation
only slightly lower at 64.4% – in spite of environmental concerns
that should be promoting renewables, hydro-electricity and nuclear generation.
Spain’s thermal
generation in 2008 is estimated at 234TWh, or 4.85%
of the regional total. By 2013, the country is
expected to account for
5.15% of thermal generation.
For Spain, oil is the dominant fuel,
accounting for 54% of primary energy demand (PED), followed by
gas at 24%,
coal at 10%, nuclear energy at 9% and hydro-power with a 3% share of PED.
Developed
markets energy demand is forecast to reach 4,028mn toe by 2013,
representing 3.8% growth over the
period. Spain’s 2008 market share
of 3.71% is set to rise to 4.06% by 2013. Spain’s 59TWh of nuclear
demand in 2008 is forecast to reach 60TWh by 2013, with its share of Developed
Markets nuclear power
easing from 3.49% to 3.44% over the period.
BMI
is now forecasting Spanish real GDP growth averaging 0.75% per annum between
2008 and 2013,
with a 2009 decline forecast at 3.5%. Population is
expected to decrease from 45.6mn to 45mn over the
period, with GDP per
capita and electricity consumption per capita forecast to increase steadily by
8%
and 4% respectively. The country’s power consumption is expected
to increase from an estimated
264TWh in 2008 to 272TWh by the end of the
forecast period, providing export potential rising from an
estimated 46TWh
in 2008 to 73TWh in 2013, assuming 2% annual growth in generating
capacity.
Between 2008 and 2018, we are forecasting an increase in Spanish
electricity generation of 29.0%, which
is top of the range for the
developed markets. This equates to 15.9% in the 2013-2018 period, up from
11.3% in 2008-13. PED growth is set to fall from 13.7% in 2008-13 to 12.6%
during 2013-18,
representing 28% for the entire forecast period. An
increase of 98% in hydro-power use during 2008-18 is
one key element of
generation growth. Thermal power generation is forecast to rise 31% between
2008
and 2018, with nuclear use up 2%. More details of the longer-term BMI
power forecasts can be found at
the end of this report.
| 
View Cart
