Abstract
The new UAE Power Report from BMI forecasts that the country will account for
6.32% of Middle East
and Africa (MEA) power generation by 2013.
BMI’s Middle East/Africa power generation estimate for
2008 is 1,200
terawatt hours (TWh), representing an increase of 6.1% over the previous year.
We are
forecasting an increase in regional generation to 1,566TWh by 2013,
representing a rise of 30.5%
between 2008 and the end of the period.
MEA thermal power generation in 2008 is estimated by BMI at 1,135TWh,
accounting for 94.6% of the
total electricity supplied in the region. Our
forecast for 2013 is 1,460TWh, implying 38.3% growth that
reduces slightly
the market share of thermal generation to 93.2% – thanks in part to
environmental
concerns that should be promoting renewables,
hydro-electricity and nuclear generation. The UAE’s
thermal
generation in 2008 was an estimated 77.2TWh, or 6.80% of the regional total.
By 2013, the
country is expected to account for 6.77% of thermal
generation.
For the UAE, in 2008 gas was the dominant fuel, accounting for
69.5% of primary energy demand (PED),
followed by oil at 30.5%. Regional
energy demand is forecast to reach 871mn toe by 2013, representing
18.5%
growth over the period since 2008. The UAE’s 2008 market share of 10.23%
is set to climb to
10.69% by 2013.
The UAE is still ranked first in
BMI’s updated Power Business Environment rating, having remained
ahead of Egypt thanks to its developed competitive landscape, privatisation
progress, population and
power consumption growth. The size of the power
market is relatively small and there remains a
relatively high level of
regulation. The UAE is just two points ahead of Egypt, so could face a
challenge
for the top slot. However, its stiffest long-term competition is
likely to come from Qatar.
BMI is now forecasting real GDP growth
averaging 3.87% per annum between 2008 and 2013, with the
2009 forecast
being a decline of 2.90%. Population is expected to expand from 4.70mn to
5.40mn over
the period to 2013, with GDP per capita and power consumption
per capita forecast to increase by 19%
and 4% respectively. The
country’s power consumption is expected to increase from an estimated
69TWh
in 2008 to 83TWh by the end of the forecast period, representing a
broadly balanced market if the country
delivers the assumed 5.5% annual
growth in electricity generation.
Between 2008 and 2018, we are
forecasting an increase in UAE electricity generation of 72.2%, which is
near the top of the range for the MEA region. This equates to 34.4% in the
2013-2018 period, up from
28.1% in 2008-2013. PED growth is set to
increase from 23.8% in 2008-2013 to 33.2%, representing
64.9% for the
entire forecast period. Thermal power generation is forecast to rise by 72.2%
between 2008
and 2018. More details of the longer-term BMI power forecasts
can be found later in this report.
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