Abstract
The new UK Power Report from BMI forecasts that the country will account for
5.37% of Developed
Markets power generation by 2013, and to retain a
modest electricity export capability. BMI’s Developed
Markets power
generation estimate for 2008 is 7,443 terawatt hours (TWh), representing a
decrease of
0.6% over the previous year. We are forecasting a rise in
regional generation to 7,749TWh by 2013,
representing an increase of
4.1%.
Thermal power generation in 2008 is estimated by BMI at 4,819TWh,
accounting for 64.7% of the total
electricity supplied in the region. Our
forecast for 2013 is 4,993TWh, implying 3.6% growth that leaves
the market
share of thermal generation only slightly lower at 64.4% – in spite of
environmental concerns
that should be promoting renewables,
hydro-electricity and nuclear generation. The UK’s thermal
generation in 2008 is estimated at 333TWh, or 6.90% of the regional total. By
2013, the country is
expected to account for 6.77% of thermal
generation.
For the UK, gas is the leading fuel, accounting for 40% of
PED, followed by oil at 37%, coal at 17% and
nuclear with a 6% share of
PED. Developed markets energy demand is forecast to reach 4,028mn toe by
2013, representing 3.8% growth over the period. The UK’s 2008 market
share of 5.45% is set to fall to
5.34% by 2013. The UK’s 52.5TWh of
nuclear demand in 2008 is forecast to reach 72.0TWh by 2013,
with its
share of the Developed Markets nuclear market rising from 3.11% to 4.13% over
the period.
BMI are now forecasting UK real GDP growth averaging 1.03% per
annum between 2008 and 2013, with
the 2009 forecast being a decline of
4.2%. Population is expected to expand from 61.4mn to 63.1mn over
the
period, with GDP per capita remaining broadly flat and electricity consumption
per capita decreasing
5%. The country’s power consumption is
expected to decrease from an estimated 345TWh in 2008 to
338TWh by the end
of the forecast period, providing surplus capacity rising from an estimated
45TWh in
2008 to 79TWh in 2013, assuming 0.9% annual growth in power
production.
Between 2008 and 2018, we are forecasting an increase in UK
electricity generation of 14.1%, which is
middle of the range for the
developed markets. This equates to 7% in the 2013-2018 period, up from
6.7% in 2008-13. PED growth is set to rise from 1.6% in 2008-13 to 12.6%
during 2013-18, representing
14.4% for the entire forecast period. An
increase of 110% in nuclear power use during 2008-18 is one key
element of
generation growth. Thermal power generation is forecast to fall by 2.9%
between 2008 and
2018, with hydro use up 139% (from a very low base). More
details of the longer-term BMI power
forecasts can be found near the end
of this report.
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