Abstract
The new US Power Report from BMI forecasts the country will account for 57.43%
of Developed
Markets power generation by 2013, and will retain an
electricity export capability. BMI’s Developed
Markets power
generation estimate for 2008 is 7,443 terawatt hours (TWh), representing a
decrease of
0.6% over the previous year. We are forecasting a rise in
regional generation to 7,749TWh by 2013,
representing an increase of
4.1%.
Thermal power generation in 2008 is estimated by BMI at 4,819TWh,
accounting for 64.7% of the total
electricity supplied in the region. Our
forecast for 2013 is 4,993TWh, a 3.6% growth that leaves the
market share
of thermal generation only slightly lower at 64.4% – in spite of
environmental concerns that
should be promoting renewables,
hydro-electricity and nuclear generation. US thermal generation in 2008
is
estimated at 3,214TWh, or 66.71% of the regional total. By 2013, the country
is expected to account for
66.21% of thermal generation.
For the US,
oil is the leading fuel, accounting for 38.5% of primary energy demand (PED),
followed by
gas at 26.1%, coal at 24.6% and nuclear with an 8.4% share of
PED. Developed markets energy demand
is forecast to reach 4,028mn toe by
2013, representing 3.8% growth over the period. The US 2008 market
share
of 59.22% is set to fall to 58.88% by 2013. The 849TWh of US nuclear demand in
2008 is forecast
to reach 874TWh by 2013, with its share of the Developed
Markets nuclear market easing from 50.3% to
50.1% over the period.
BMI
are now forecasting US real GDP growth averaging 1.38% per annum between 2008
and 2013, with
the 2009 forecast being a decline of 3.3%. Population is
expected to expand from 304mn to 319mn over
the period with GDP per capita
rising 16%, but electricity consumption per capita forecast decreasing by
3%. The country’s power consumption is expected to increase from an
estimated 3,855TWh in 2008 to
3,923TWh by the end of the forecast period,
providing surplus capacity rising from an estimated 461TWh
in 2008 to
527TWh in 2013, assuming 0.3% annual growth in power production.
The
volume of power generated by individual US states varies dramatically, from
almost 406TWh in
Texas (9.7% of the US total), to less than 6TWh (0.14%)
in Vermont. The top 10 US power producers
account for almost 48% of the
country’s total generation. The lowest level of fossil fuel use in the
top 10
is registered by Illinois and New York. Both derive less than half
of their power generation from coal, gas
and oil. Nuclear is the dominant
fuel in both cases, with Illinois relying on reactors for 47.8% of its
power, while New York has 29.1% nuclear dependency. In the top 10 states,
Indiana is the most fossil
fuel-intensive, deriving 94% of its electricity
from coal-burning facilities and a further 5% from gas-fired
power
stations.
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