Abstract
The new Vietnam Power Report from BMI forecasts that the country will account
for 1.29% of Asia
Pacific regional power generation by 2013, with the risk
of power shortages if generation expansion falls
below the required level.
BMI’s Asia Pacific power generation assumption for 2008 is 7,093
terawatt
hours (twh), representing an increase of 3.2% over the previous
year. We are forecasting an increase in
regional generation to 9,099twh by
2013, representing a rise of 28.3%.
Asia Pacific thermal power generation
in 2008 totalled an estimated 5,570twh, accounting for 78.5% of
the total
electricity supplied in the region. Our forecast for 2013 is 6,999twh,
implying 25.7% growth that
reduces the market share of thermal generation
to 76.9% – thanks largely to environmental concerns
promoting
renewables, hydro-electricity and nuclear generation. Vietnam’s thermal
generation in 2008
was an estimated 38.9twh, or 0.7% of the regional
total. By 2013, the country is expected to account for
1.01% of thermal
generation in the region.
For Vietnam, oil is the dominant fuel,
accounting for around 50% of primary energy demand (PED),
followed by
hydro-power at 20%, coal at 18% and gas with a 12% share of PED. Regional
energy
demand is forecast to reach 4,859mn toe by 2013, representing 24.9%
growth from the estimated 2008
level. Vietnam’s estimated 2008
market share of 0.5% is set to rise to 0.6% by 2013. Vietnam’s
estimated
28.6twh of hydro-electric demand in 2008 is forecast to reach
42.0twh by 2013, with its share of the Asia
Pacific hydro market falling
from 3.19% to 3.16% over the period.
Vietnam is ranked equal fourth with
Malaysia in BMI’s Power Business Environment Rating, thanks
largely
to the growth potential of power consumption and energy demand, plus healthy
scores in several
other categories. The country is at little risk from
Indonesia below it, and may have the long-term
potential to pull away from
Malaysia.
BMI is now forecasting Vietnamese real GDP growth averaging
6.10% per annum (pa) between 2009
and 2013, with a 2009 estimate of 2.9%.
Population is expected to expand from 86.8mn to 92.8mn over
the period,
with GDP per capita and electricity consumption per capita forecast to
increase significantly
(by 63% and 60% respectively). The country’s
power consumption is expected to increase from an
estimated 69twh in 2008
to 118twh by the end of the forecast period, providing a broadly balanced
market if generation grows at no less than our assumed annual rate of 11.3%.
There is, however, a real
risk of electricity shortages if the power
industry cannot deliver adequate new capacity as demand soars.
Between
2008 and 2018, we are forecasting an increase in Vietnamese electricity
generation of 141.4%,
which is top of the range for the Asia Pacific
region. This equates to 45.4% in the 2013-2018 period,
down from 66% in
2008-2013. PED growth is set to decrease from 50.3% in 2008-2013 to 39.5%,
representing 109.7% for the entire forecast period. Hydro generation is
expected to rise by 138% between
2008 and 2018, with thermal power
generation forecast to increase by 144% over the same period. More
detailed long-term BMI power forecasts can be found later in this report.
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