Abstract
2009 has been a tough year for the shipping sector - container freight rates
have plunged with industry
observers issuing profit warnings for container
lines' full-year results. The liquid bulk sector has remained
afloat, as
tankers have been used for oil-storage purposes. Dry bulk shipping fortunes
have fluctuated -
from all-time lows, to showing a steady recovery, to
dipping once more - as the sector' s fortunes have
become increasingly tied
to China' s raw material needs.
For the Q409 Bulgaria Shipping Report we
have reviewed our forecast data for total tonnage throughput
and container
volumes for 2009, taking into account, where available, the most recent
monthly throughput
data for the port of Varna. BMI has revised its 2009
throughput forecasts for the port downwards. We
believe that for the whole
of 2009 the port' s total tonnage throughput will fall by 22.79%. This
tonnage
revision has also affected our container throughput prediction for
2009. We now estimate that container
volumes at the port will decline by
33.88%, y-o-y.
As 2009 draws to a close, BMI answers the question of what
is next for the Bulgarian shipping sector.
We predict that a gradual
recovery in the country' s ports throughput will begin in 2010. This is
based
upon the fact that our Country Risk desk is forecasting Bulgaria' s
total trade to increase by 2.37% in
2010. Using the port of Varna as an
example, BMI predicts that tonnage throughput at the port will grow
by
4.63% while container volumes will increase by 8.69% in 2010. This estimate
will see the port
handling a total of 6.2mn tonnes and 111,636TEUs in
2010.
We expect growth in throughput volumes to continue at the port for
the rest of the mid term (2011-2013).
We predict that total tonnage
throughput at the port of Varna will increase on average by 3.96% per year
during the forecast period, with container volumes increasing by a yearly
average of 6.9%. This growth
will not enable the port of Varna to reclaim
its pre-downturn levels of tonnage or container throughput in
our forecast
window.
Bulgaria' s port recovery is reliant on a revival in Bulgaria' s
trade volumes. For the whole of 2009 BMI
expects Bulgaria' s imports to
decline by 15.00%, and its exports to fall by 14.00%. A gradual recovery
is
forecast to begin in 2010, with total trade forecast to grow by 2.37%.
BMI predicts that over the rest of
the mid term (2011-2013) the country' s
total trade will increase by a yearly average of 3.6%.
This trade recovery
will see the country' s import and export worth increase to US$37.1bn and
US$26.7bn
respectively by 2013. BMI does not expect the country' s current
main trade partners of Germany, Russia,
Italy, Romania, Ukraine, Greece
and Turkey to change dramatically over the mid term.
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