Abstract
Brazil, Chile and Bolivia have set a deadline for the creation of an
intra-oceanic trade corridor linking
Brazil' s Atlantic port of Santos with
Chile' s Pacific coast ports of Iquique and Arica, it was reported in
July.
The throughway, which was agreed by the country' s respective presidents in
December 2007, is
expected to create 3,800km of paved roads, with 1,800km
passing through Bolivia and 1,500km and
400km to be created in Brazil and
Chile respectively. According to BBC World, Brazil will provide
US$132.8mn
for the venture while Chile will contribute US$93.2mn and Bolivia US$373mn.
The first
stage of the corridor – linking Santos to the North
Chilean port of Iquique – is expected to be completed
in 2010, while
the second phase will connect the neighbouring port of Arica by 2011. BMI
believes the
corridor is primarily designed to facilitate bilateral trade
links between Bolivia, Brazil and Asian markets.
The Chilean ports of
Iquique and Arica have adequate infrastructure and the capacity to handle the
added
throughput from both Brazil and Bolivia, although expansions are
likely to be needed in future years to
meet rising demand. The Port of
Iquique handled about 3mn tonnes of cargo in 2008, including dry bulk
cargo, such as copper, soya and wood, as well as containerised cargo and
vehicles. We expect volumes to
rise significantly once the road comes
online.
In our latest Chile Freight Transport Report, we project that the
country’s combined freight traffic across
all modes will grow at an
annual average of 2.7% in the 2009-2013 forecast period. Various factors
support this prediction. Chile remains one of the most open economies in the
Americas, which exposes it
to downturns in the world economy as well as
upturns. That said, the country’s economy will be resilient.
We
project that freight carried will rise at an annual average of 2.7%, a little
faster than the economy as a
whole (2.3%). Within that total, airfreight
will lead (3.1% per annum), followed by road (2.9%) with
maritime freight
a little behind (2.7% average annual growth), reflecting the downturn in
international
trade, particularly with Pacific Rim countries. Rail freight
will achieve annual traffic growth of 2.5%.
Chile is at the top end of our
Latin American Freight Transport Business Environment Rating, with a
composite score of 67.9. It scores particularly well on long-term political
and economic risk and on the
regulatory and competitive environment.
Freight and transport infrastructure growth is comparable to that
of
countries in the peer group such as Brazil and Argentina.
According to our
latest estimates, transport and communications GDP rose by 3.9% in 2008, ahead
of
GDP expansion at 3.2%. For the 2009-2013 forecast period we expect the
transport and communications
sector to continue outpacing the economy as a
whole. It will achieve average annual growth of 2.8%,
versus 2.3% for
overall GDP. The total value of transport and communications GDP will rise
to
US$20.6bn in nominal terms by 2013, representing 8.2% of Chile’s
GDP. The transport and
communications sector employed an estimated 522,200
people, or 8.6% of the labour force, in 2008. We
see this rising to
561,000, 8.7% of the total, by 2013.
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