Abstract
2009 has been a tough year for the shipping sector - container freight rates
have plunged with industry
observers issuing profit warnings for container
lines' full-year results. The liquid bulk sector has remained
afloat, as
tankers have been used for oil-storage purposes. Dry bulk shipping fortunes
have fluctuated -
from all-time lows, to showing a steady recovery, to
dipping once more - as the sector' s fortunes have
become increasingly tied
to China' s raw-material needs.
For BMI' s Q409 Croatia Shipping Report we
have reviewed our forecast data for total tonnage
throughput and container
volumes for 2009, taking into account, where available, the most recent
monthly
throughput data for the port of Ploce. BMI has revised its 2009
throughput forecasts for the port down.
We believe that for the whole of
2009 the port' s total tonnage throughput will fall by 30.68%, y-o-y.
As
2009 draws to a close, BMI answers the question of what is next for the
Croatian shipping sector. We
predict that a gradual recovery in the
country' s ports throughput will begin in 2010. This is based upon the
fact
that our Country Risk desk is forecasting Croatia' s total trade to increase by
3.27% in 2010. At one of
country' s main ports, the port of Ploce, BMI
predicts that tonnage throughput at the port will grow by
4.78% while
container volumes will increase by 6.54% in 2010. This estimate will see the
port to
handling a total of 3.7mn tonnes and 24,035 TEUs in 2010.
We
expect growth in throughput volumes to continue at the port for the rest of
the mid term (2011-2013).
According to BMI' s shipping desk forecasts for
the port of Ploce, we predict that total tonnage throughput
will increase
on average by 13.3% per year, with container volumes increasing by a yearly
average of
17.2%. This growth will enable the port of Ploce to reclaim its
pre-downturn levels of both tonnage and
container throughput in 2013.
Croatia' s port recovery is reliant on a revival in Croatia' s trade volumes.
For the whole of 2009 BMI
expects Croatia' s imports and exports both to
decline by 10%. A gradual recovery is forecast to begin in
2010, with
total trade forecast to grow by 3.27%. BMI predicts that over the rest of the
mid term (2011-
2013) the country' s total trade will increase by a yearly
average of 4.73%.
This trade recovery will see the country' s import and
export worth increase to US$34.3bn and US$31.2bn
respectively by 2013. BMI
does not expect the country' s current main trade partners of Italy,
Germany,
Russia, Slovenia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, China and Austria to
change dramatically over the mid term.
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