Abstract
Tourism Overview
After a marked weakening in the growth of foreign tourist
arrivals in 2008, the most recent data show a
decline in foreign visitors
of 4% year-on-year (y-o-y) in the first four months of 2009. Domestic
tourism,
meanwhile, was down 9% y-o-y, while overall tourism (domestic and
foreign) fell 6% to 1.0mn tourists.
Over the same period, arrivals from
Austria and Slovenia recorded positive growth, albeit modest, while
the
number of visitors from Germany and Italy declined, compared with the same
period a year earlier. A
number of Eastern European countries, however,
recorded strong positive growth in visitors, such as
Bulgaria and
Macedonia, although from a low base. In an attempt to help shore up tourism
demand, the
government is suspending visa requirements for some
nationalities.
Hospitality
Latest data for the period January to April
2009 show the number of tourist nights totalled nearly 2.7mn
(for domestic
and foreign tourists), down 4% y-o-y. The number of foreign tourist nights,
however, held
up reasonably well, declining just 1% y-o-y to around 1.8mn
(67% of the total), with the average number
of nights per tourist
increasing marginally to 2.8mn from 2.7mn in the same period of 2008. By
comparison, domestic tourist nights were hit much harder, falling 11% annually
to about 0.9mn.
Interestingly, of the key source markets, only Italy
recorded a fall in tourist nights, although the decline
was sharp, down 9%
y-o-y.
Industry Forecast Scenario
BMI maintains a poor outlook for the
Croatian tourism sector this year. We have revised down the
forecast this
quarter for foreign visitor arrivals to -6% y-o-y. Moreover, we also now
expect slight
negative growth of 1% y-o-y in arrivals in 2010 (adjusted
down from a forecast of modest growth in our
previous quarterly report).
Underlying the forecasts are the deteriorating economic conditions in
major
source markets – particularly the eurozone. In addition, along
with expected weakness of the Croatian
currency, the kuna, against the
euro in the latter part of 2009, we believe that much of the medium-term
appreciatory pressure on the kuna has been alleviated. This will help support
the competitiveness of the
tourism sector for foreign visitors from the
eurozone over the forecast period.
Air Passenger Traffic
As expected,
Croatian international passenger air traffic in 2009 is feeling the effects as
the tourism sector
contracts. According to official figures, during Q109,
international passenger numbers (on Croatian
carriers) declined a sizeable
7% y-o-y.
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