Abstract
2009 has been a tough year for the shipping sector - container freight rates
have plunged with industry
observers issuing profit warnings for container
lines' full-year results. The liquid bulk sector has remained
afloat, as
tankers have been used for oil storage purposes. Dry bulk shipping fortunes
have fluctuated
from all-time lows, to showing a steady recovery, to
dipping once more, as the sector' s fortunes have
become increasingly tied
to China' s raw-material needs.
For the Q409 Estonia Shipping Report we
have reviewed our forecast data for total tonnage throughput
and container
volumes for 2009, taking into account, where available, the most recent
monthly throughput
data for the port of Tallinn. BMI has revised its 2009
throughput forecasts for the port up. We believe that
for the whole of
2009 the port' s total tonnage throughput will increase by 2.63%, y-o-y.
As
2009 draws to a close, BMI answers the question of what is next for the
Estonian shipping sector. We
forecast that 2010 will be a difficult year
for Estonia' s port of Tallinn, as its throughput volumes could be
hit hard
when the new fuel terminal becomes operational at the Russian port of
Ust-Luga. BMI predicts
that tonnage throughput at the port will decrease
by 22.86% to 23.0mn tonnes in 2010. At the same time,
we forecast a
gradual recovery in the port' s container throughput to begin in 2010. This is
based upon the
fact that our Country Risk desk is forecasting Estonia' s
total trade to increase by 0.99% in 2010. BMI
predicts that container
volumes at the port of Tallinn will increase by 2.76% in 2010, and this
estimate
will see the port handling a total 140,842TEUs.
We expect
growth in throughput volumes to take place at the port for the rest of the mid
term (2011-
2013). According to BMI' s Shipping Desk forecasts for the port
of Tallinn, we predict that total tonnage
throughput will increase on
average by 6.3% per year, with container volumes increasing by a yearly
average of 6.7%. This growth will not, however, enable the port of Tallinn to
reclaim its current levels of
tonnage throughput, or fully reverse the
port' s 2009 container decline during our forecast period.
A recovery at
the port of Tallinn is reliant on a revival in Estonia' s trade volumes,
especially as the port
looks set to lose Russian oil shipments. For the
whole of 2009 BMI expects Estonia' s imports to decline
by 10.0%, and its
exports to fall by 8.30%. A gradual recovery is forecast to begin in 2010,
with total
trade forecast to grow by 0.99%. BMI predicts that over the
rest of the mid term (2011-2013) the
country' s total trade will increase
by a yearly average of 3.7%.
This trade recovery will see the country' s
import and export worth increase to US$13.3bn and US$13.4bn,
respectively,
by 2013. BMI does not expect the country' s current main trade partners of
Finland, Sweden,
Latvia, Germany, Lithuania and Russia to change
dramatically over the mid term.
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