Abstract
Tourism Overview
Based on new data series, and following annual declines
in foreign tourist arrivals (defined as nonresidents
staying at least one
night) in the period 2004 to 2007, BMI estimates that there was a recovery
in tourist arrivals last year, edging up a modest 2% year-on-year (y-o-y) to
about 9.5mn arrivals. The
most recent data are for Q109 and show a
moderate increase in foreign visitor arrivals (including sameday
visitors), although the number of foreign tourist arrivals has changed little,
compared with the
corresponding period in 2008. More comprehensive data
from the hospitality sector for the first five
months of 2009, however,
show a sharp downturn in tourism.
Hospitality
After a disappointing
year in the hospitality sector in 2008, latest data for the period January-May
2009
confirm a major slowdown. The number of nights spent in all
accommodation establishments declined by
over 12% y-o-y, with tourist
nights accounted for by international visitors falling more than 14%
compared with the same period in 2008. Nights by domestic residents also fell
by nearly 10% y-o-y. Of
the major source markets, the picture is broadly
one of negative growth. Tourist nights by German
arrivals were down about
14% y-o-y, while nights by Austrian tourists rose by 1.6% y-o-y. The decline
in
tourist nights by UK visitors continued to be very large, down 33%
y-o-y (after major declines at the end
of 2008), while nights by Italian
tourists fell 3% compared with the corresponding period a year earlier.
French tourist nights, meanwhile, were down just 1% y-o-y but nights by
visitors from the US declined
34% y-o-y. Unsurprisingly, the average
occupancy rate of hotel rooms in the five-month period was also
down
sharply y-o-y to 37.8%.
Forecast Scenario
BMI forecasts a sizeable
fall in foreign tourist arrivals this year. Clearly, recession in
Hungary’s main
source markets, Romania, Poland, Slovakia and the
eurozone (which accounted for around 80% of tourist
arrivals in 2008),
will have a negative impact on the number foreign tourists in the short term.
Moreover,
the economic downturn in key markets is also likely to outweigh
any benefits to Hungary (for the tourism
sector) from further forecast
short-term falls in the Hungarian forint against the euro. BMI expects
that
the number of foreign tourist arrivals will broadly stabilise in
2010, although further weakness is
anticipated over the longer term. This
is partly due to the forecast strength of the forint (from 2011
onwards)
undermining the competitiveness of the tourism sector. In line with our
forecast of a deep
recession in Hungary in 2009 and economic recovery only
in 2011, we foresee negative growth in
outbound Hungarian traveller
numbers this year, with tourism numbers little changed in 2010 but picking
up thereafter.
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