Abstract
Our forecasts reveal a modest compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of around
9.7% in US dollar terms
for Mexico’s total drug market value, which
is forecast to reach US$15.7bn by 2013. Per-capita
pharmaceutical spending
will increase from US$92.60 in 2008 to US$141.60 by 2013. We believe that
the OTC segment will see a gradual decline in total drug market share by value
as generic medicines
experience an uptake in interest. This is contrast to
the more traditional preference for self-medication. As
the health
insurance policies become more widely implemented, people will be more likely
to consult a
physician and therefore our legal prescription market
expenditure will increase from 88% of the total drug
market in 2008 to 91%
by 2013.
The number of disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) lost to
communicable diseases in Mexico will fall
from 1.9mn in 2008 to 1.0mn by
2030. The DALYs lost to non-communicable diseases in Mexico will
rise from
9.4mn in 2008 to 10.7mn by 2030. We highlight that DALYs do not reflect the
prevalence of a
disease, or number of people affected by or dying from
one, but rather are a measure of the number of
years lost in productivity
as a result of having had, or still having a disease.
Since May 2009,
Mexico has been the centre of the swine flu (H1N1) outbreak as it was revealed
that the
virus jumped the species barrier in the country, and subsequent
human transmission has claimed the lives
of 103 people. While this remains
the highest death rate attributed to swine flu in the world, Mexican
drug
regulatory authorities have issued public health warnings and escalated their
activities to ensure
patient safety and control.
The pharmaceutical
supply chain has been highlighted by the Mexican consumer protection
agency
(PROFECO) and the Federal Commission for the Protection Against
Sanitary Risk (COFEPRIS) as a
possible point of weakness. The country has
increased its imports of Roche’s Tamiflu (oseltamivir) and
GlaxoSmithKline’s Relenza (zanamivir) to cope with the flu outbreak,
with the Ministry of Health
revealing that the country has adequate
supplies of antivirals. Both drugs are dispensed for free, through
prescription only, to suspected cases in Mexico.
The heightened activity
by the regulatory agencies in the country will have a positive effect on the
retail
practices for all prescription and controlled drugs. We emphasise
that this is of particular significance in
Mexico, where inconsistencies
in inspections and the lack of a unified approach by the regulatory bodies
has been exploited by criminals to supply fake drugs.
| 
View Cart
