Abstract
2009 has been a tough year for the shipping sector. Container freight rates
have plunged, with industry
observers issuing profit warnings for
container lines' full-year results. The liquid bulk sector has remained
afloat as tankers have been used for oil storage purposes. Dry bulk shipping
fortunes have fluctuated from
all-time lows, to showing a steady recovery,
to dipping once more as the sector' s fortunes have become
increasingly
tied to China' s raw material needs.
For the Q409 Bahrain Shipping Report
we have reviewed our forecast data for total tonnage throughput
and
container volumes for 2009 in light of the developments in Bahrain' s maritime
sector in 2009, which
have seen the opening of the new Khalifa bin Salman
port (KBSP) and the gradual phasing out of the port
of Mina Salman (MSP).
The majority of Bahrain' s maritime operations have now been moved to KBSP
and BMI has contacted Yousif Bin Sanad, the commercial director at APM
Terminals, the operator of
the KBSP and MSP, about the different transfer
stages to enable us to offer the most up-to-date estimates
on each port' s
projected throughput volume.
As 2009 draws to a close BMI answers the
question of what is next for Bahrain' s shipping sector. We
predict that a
gradual recovery in the country' s ports throughput will begin in 2010. This is
based upon the
fact that our Country Risk Desk is forecasting Bahrain' s
total trade to increase by 1.87% in 2010. In the
case of KBSP, BMI
predicts that total tonnage at the port will increase by 0.33%, while
container
volumes will increase by 1.65%. This estimate will see the port
handling a total of 975,000 tonnes and
270,807TEUs in 2010.
We expect
growth in throughput volumes to continue at the port for the rest of the mid
term (2010-2013).
According to BMI' s Shipping Desk forecasts for KBSP, we
predict that total tonnage will increase on
average by 0.33% per year with
container volumes increasing by a yearly average of 1.7% over this
period.
Bahrain' s port recovery is reliant on a revival in Bahrain' s trade
volumes. For the whole of 2009 BMI
expects Bahrain' s imports to decline by
2% and its exports to fall by 1.18%. A gradual recovery is
forecast for
2010 with total trade forecast to grow by 1.87%. BMI predicts that over the
rest of the mid
term (2011-2013) the country' s total will increase by a
yearly average of 1.88%.
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