Abstract
This report was written in early August 2009. Relative to the Q309 report, the
main changes have been a
review of the company profiles – both local
and multinational. We have also included a large quantity of
new data. In
virtually all cases the regulator or the trade association have published
final premium figures
for 2008, which was not necessarily the case in May,
when we prepared the Q309 reports. In many
instances, we have revised our
projections of non-life penetration and life density. This is because it
has
become clear that the linear progressions that we had been expecting
for most countries are not an
accurate reflection of what has been
happening in recent months. As a consequence, we have much
greater
confidence in our forecasts of premium income for 2009.
Early 2009 was in
many ways a challenging but far from disastrous period for the major
protagonists in
most insurance markets. Notwithstanding the fact that
particular non-life markets suffered as a result of a
slump in the number
of cars registered, and correspondingly lower demand for compulsory third
party
motor (CTPM) insurance and voluntary motor insurance, global
non-life premiums generally held up well
in spite of the global economic
downturn. In contrast, life premiums were, in most markets, lower in
Q109
than they had been in Q108. This was largely the result of the past volatility
in global equity
markets, although there were also other problems.
Conditions remain fair in the global reinsurance
market.
In terms of
the major regions whose insurance markets are covered by BMI’s reports,
Latin America and
the Middle East and North Africa stood out in terms of
growth in premiums (in non-life insurance in
particular, but also in life
insurance). Conditions were far more mixed in Central and Eastern Europe
(particularly in non-life insurance, where the downturn in car registrations
hit hard) and Asia Pacific,
where various factors caused slippage in life
premiums in many markets.
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