Abstract
BMI expects the drug market in Morocco to increase in value from US$1.38bn in
2008 to US$1.88bn in
2013, representing a compound annual growth rate
(CAGR) of 5.5% in US dollar terms. The strong
development of the sector is
linked to an expanding economy and a growing middle class, both of which
will underpin increased drug spending. The global financial crisis has not hit
Morocco with the same
force experienced in other countries in the world,
which bodes well for pharmaceutical sector, while
stable levels of
inflation mean that real growth rates will be over 7% in both 2008 and 2009.
The main
risk to this scenario revolves around whether current levels of
health expenditure are sustainable. With
life expectancy growing in
Morocco, the number of elderly people dependent on social security is
increasing and could reach 5.8mn by 2030. Meanwhile, high drug prices and a
lack of generic penetration
are having an inflationary impact on health
spending. However, BMI believes that while the economy
continues to expand
rapidly, many of these problems will remain in the background. Despite the
global
economic downturn, Morocco’s High Planning Commission (HCP)
has said that the country is likely to
register economic growth of 5.3% in
2009. Although we feel these figures for economic growth are quite
optimistic, BMI maintains a positive forecast of 2.4% real GDP growth in
Morocco in 2009.
The main health concern in Morocco in Q409, as in much of
the world at the moment, is the threat of the
swine flu pandemic. As a
result, the government has been aggressively investing in its bio-defence
capabilities. As reported by MAP, Morocco has allocated MAD852mn (US$107.5mn)
to combat the
threat of swine flu. Out of this total MAD582mn (US$73.4mn)
has been put aside to purchase 4mn doses
of Swiss drugmaker Roche’s
anti-flu medicne Tamiflu (oseltamivir), which is used to treated the
H1N1virus. Meanwhile, MAD20mn (US$2.52mn) is to be used to purchase protective
masks. According
to latest estimates, there have been 35 cases of swine
flu in Morocco, of which 28 people have been
released. Governments in the
Maghreb region have responded in differing ways to the threat of the
pandemic. Algeria has created a special crisis unit comprising of experts from
the health, defence, interior
and transport ministries in order to monitor
cases of swine flu. All passengers arriving from countries
where the
condition has been reported are receiving special treatment in order to
prevent the pathogen
spreading. In addition millions of respiratory masks
have been distributed to doctors and border agents.
Meanwhile, in Morocco
the emphasis has been placed on undertaking clinical and biological checks at
all
entry points, which has included fever detection kits at international
airports. According to Health
Minister Yasmina Baddou, sufficient
quantities of vaccine are at hand while ambulances have been
placed
on-call to treat any breakouts.
In BMI’s Business Environment
Rankings for the Middle East and North Africa Region, Morocco
remains in
12th place as despite the strong growth potential in its drug market,
per-capita spending
remains low at just US$43.7 in 2008.
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