Abstract
2009 has been a tough year for the shipping sector - container freight rates
have plunged with industry
observers issuing profit warnings for container
lines' full-year results. The liquid bulk sector has remained
afloat, as
tankers have been used for oil storage purposes. Dry bulk shipping fortunes
have fluctuated
from all-time lows, to showing a steady recovery, to
dipping once more, as the sector' s fortunes have
become increasingly tied
to China' s raw material needs.
For the Q409 Romania Shipping Report we
have reviewed our forecast data for total tonnage throughput
and container
volumes at the country' s ports for 2009, taking into account, where available,
the most
recent monthly throughput data. As a result, BMI is sticking with
its predictions for the throughput of
Romania' s main port of Constantza.
We believe that for the whole of 2009 the port' s total tonnage
throughput
will fall by 8.87%, y-o-y, with container throughput set to decline by
20.07%.
As 2009 draws to a close, BMI answers the question of what is next
for the Romanian shipping sector.
We predict that a gradual recovery in
the country' s ports throughput will begin in 2010. This is based
upon the
fact that our Country Risk Desk is forecasting Romania' s total trade to
increase by 2.73% in
2010. Using the port of Constantza as an example, BMI
predicts that tonnage throughput at the port will
grow by 2.31%, while
container volumes will increase by 7.12% in 2010. This estimate will see the
port
handling a total of 57.7mn tonnes and 1.182mn TEUs in 2010.
We
expect growth in throughput volumes to continue at the port for the rest of
the mid term (2011-2013).
According to BMI' s Shipping Desk forecasts for
the port of Constantza, we predict that total tonnage
throughput will
increase on average by 3.4% per year, with container volumes increasing by a
yearly
average of 9.5%. This growth will enable the port of Constantza to
reclaim its pre-downturn levels of
tonnage throughput in 2013, while the
port' s 2009 container decline will be fully reversed by 2012.
Romania' s
port recovery is reliant on a revival in Romania' s trade volumes. For the
whole of 2009 BMI
expects Romania' s imports to decline by 11% and its
exports to fall by 13.5%. A gradual recovery is
forecast to begin in 2010,
with total trade forecast to grow by 2.7%. BMI predicts that over the rest of
the
mid term (2011-2013) the country' s total trade will increase by a
yearly average of 4%.
This trade recovery will see the country' s import
and export worth increase to US$80.9bn and US$61.2bn
respectively by 2013.
BMI does not expect the country' s current main trade partners of Germany,
Italy,
Hungary, France, Russia and Turkey to change dramatically over the
mid term.
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