Abstract
2009 has been a tough year for the shipping sector - container freight rates
have plunged with industry
observers issuing profit warnings for container
lines' full-year results. The liquid bulk sector has remained
afloat, as
tankers have been used for oil storage purposes. Dry bulk shipping fortunes
have fluctuated
from all-time lows, to showing a steady recovery, to
dipping once more, as the sector' s fortunes have
become increasingly tied
to China' s raw material needs.
For the Q409 Russia Shipping Report we have
reviewed our forecast data for total tonnage throughput
and container
volumes at the country' s ports for 2009, taking into account, where available,
the most
recent monthly throughput data. Although the total amount of
cargo handled by Russian ports was on the
rise in the first half of the
year (+6%, y-o-y), both tonnage and container throughput at the country' s
main
container port, the Port of St. Petersburg, demonstrated steep
declines. Unsurprisingly, the launch of
container facilities at the nearby
port of Ust-Luga was indefinitely delayed. BMI has revised its 2009
throughput forecasts for the port of St. Petersburg down. We believe that for
the whole of 2009 the port' s
total tonnage throughput will fall by 24.58%,
y-o-y, with container throughput set to decline by 39.72%.
As 2009 draws
to a close, BMI answers the question of what is next for the Russian shipping
sector. We
predict that a gradual recovery in the country' s ports
throughput will begin in 2010. This is based upon the
fact that our
Country Risk Desk is forecasting Russia' s total trade to increase by 5.96% in
2010. Using the
port of St. Petersburg as an example, BMI predicts that
tonnage throughput at the port will grow by
2.04%, while container volumes
will increase by 3.6% in 2010. This estimate will see the port handling a
total of 46.1mn tonnes and 1.238mn TEUs in 2010.
We expect growth in
throughput volumes to continue at the port for the rest of the mid term
(2011-2013).
According to BMI' s Shipping Desk forecasts for the port of
St. Petersburg, we predict that total tonnage
throughput will increase on
average by 3.5% per year, with container volumes increasing by a yearly
average of 7.1%. This growth, however, will not enable the port of St.
Petersburg to reclaim its predownturn
levels of both tonnage and container
throughputs during our forecast period.
Russia' s port recovery is reliant
on a revival in Russia' s trade volumes. For the whole of 2009 BMI
expects
Russia' s imports to decline by 33.75%, and its exports to fall by 37.46%. A
gradual recovery is
forecast to begin in 2010, with total trade forecast
to grow by 5.96%. BMI predicts that over the rest of
the mid term
(2011-2013) the country' s total trade will increase by a yearly average of
5.4%.
This trade recovery will see the country' s import and export worth
increase to US$355.8bn and
US$501bn, respectively, by 2013. BMI does not
expect the country' s current main trade partners of
Germany, the
Netherlands, Ukraine, Italy, China, Turkey, Japan, and the US to change
dramatically over
the mid term.
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