Abstract
2009 has been a tough year for the shipping sector - container freight rates
have plunged with industry
observers issuing profit warnings for container
lines' full-year results. The liquid bulk sector has remained
afloat, as
tankers have been used for oil storage purposes. Dry bulk shipping fortunes
have fluctuated
from all-time lows, to showing a steady recovery, to
dipping once more, as the sector' s fortunes have
become increasingly tied
to China' s raw-material needs.
For the Q409 Turkey Shipping Report we have
reviewed our forecast data for General and Liquid Bulk
Cargo tonnage
throughput and container volumes at the country' s ports for 2009, taking into
account,
where available, the most recent monthly throughput data. Using
Turkey' s main port of Ambarli as an
example, BMI has revised its 2009
throughput forecasts for this port. We now believe that for the whole
of
2009 the port' s general and liquid bulk cargo tonnage throughput will fall by
30.76%, y-o-y, with
container throughput set to decline by 23.78%.
As
2009 draws to a close, BMI answers the question of what is next for the
Turkish shipping sector. We
predict that a gradual recovery in the
country' s ports throughput will begin in 2010. This is based upon the
fact
that our Country Risk Desk is forecasting Turkey' s total trade to increase by
3.27% in 2010. Using
the port of Ambarli as an example, BMI predicts that
tonnage throughput of general and liquid bulk
cargoes at the port will
grow by 5.62%, while container volumes will increase by 3.95% in 2010.
This
estimate will see the port handling a total of 2.96mn tonnes of
general and liquid bulk cargoes and
1.792mn TEUs in 2010.
We have also
calculated expected throughput volumes at the port for the rest of the mid
term (2011-
2013). For the country' s main port we have predicted average
yearly changes in the general and liquid
bulk cargo tonnage throughput and
container volumes, allowing us to predict whether or not the port will
reclaim its pre-downturn level of tonnage throughput and reverse the port' s
2009 container decline during
our forecast period.
Turkey' s port
recovery is reliant on a revival in Turkey' s trade volumes. For the whole of
2009 BMI
expects Turkey' s imports to decline by 9.5%, and its exports to
fall by 5%. A gradual recovery is forecast
to begin in 2010, with total
trade forecast to grow by 3.27%. BMI predicts average yearly change in the
country' s total trade over the rest of the mid term (2011-2013).
BMI does
not expect the country' s current main trade partners of Germany, Russia,
Italy, China, the US,
the UK, the United Arab Emirates and France to
change dramatically over the mid term.
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