Abstract
2009 has been a tough year for the shipping sector - container freight rates
have plunged with industry
observers issuing profit warnings for container
lines' full-year results. The liquid bulk sector has remained
afloat, as
tankers have been used for oil storage purposes. Dry bulk shipping fortunes
have fluctuated
from all-time lows, to showing a steady recovery, to
dipping once more, as the sector' s fortunes have
become increasingly tied
to China' s raw material needs.
For the Q409 Ukraine Shipping Report we
have reviewed our forecast data for total tonnage throughput
and container
volumes at the country' s ports for 2009, taking into account, where available,
the most
recent monthly throughput data. Using one of Ukraine' s main
ports, the port of Odessa, as an example,
BMI has revised its 2009
throughput forecasts for this port. We believe that for the whole of 2009
the
port' s total tonnage throughput will fall by 17.95% y-o-y, with
container throughput set to decline by
61.69%.
As 2009 draws to a
close, BMI answers the question of what is next for the Ukrainian shipping
sector.
We predict that a gradual recovery in the country' s ports
throughput will begin in 2010. This is based
upon the fact that our
Country Risk Desk is forecasting Ukraine' s total trade to increase by 7.38%
in
2010. Using the port of Odessa as an example, BMI predicts that tonnage
throughput at the port will grow
by 1.65%, while container volumes will
increase by 21.86% in 2010. This estimate will see the port to
handling a
total of 28.8mn tonnes and 267,125 TEUs in 2010.
We have also calculated
expected throughput volumes at the port for the rest of the mid term
(2011-
2013). For the country' s main ports we predict average yearly
changes in the total tonnage throughput and
container volumes for the
period, enabling us to predict whether or not the ports will be able to
reclaim
their pre-downturn levels of tonnage throughput and to reverse
port' s 2009 container decline during our
forecast period.
Ukraine' s
port recovery is reliant on a revival in Ukraine' s trade volumes. For the
whole of 2009 BMI
expects Ukraine' s imports to decline by 28.2% and its
exports to fall by 25%. A gradual recovery is
forecast to begin in 2010,
with total trade forecast to grow by 7.38%. Also in this report, BMI
predicts
average yearly change in the country' s total trade over the rest
of the mid term (2011-2013).
BMI does not expect the country' s current
main trade partners of Russia, Germany, China, Poland,
Turkey,
Turkmenistan, Italy, Bulgaria and the US to change dramatically over the mid
term.
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