Abstract
The latest Vietnam Oil & Gas Report from BMI forecasts that the country will
account for 1.52% of Asia
Pacific regional oil demand by 2013, while
providing 4.40% of supply. Asia Pacific regional oil use of
21.40mn
barrels per day (b/d) in 2001 reached 25.67mn b/d in 2008. It should average
24.83mn b/d in
2009, then rise to around 28.51mn b/d by 2013. Regional oil
production was just under 8.41mn b/d in
2001, and averaged 8.45mn b/d in
2008. It is set to increase to 8.75mn b/d by 2013. In 2001 the region
was
importing an average 12.99mn b/d. This total had risen to an estimated 17.22mn
b/d in 2008, and is
forecast to reach 19.76mn b/d by 2013.
In terms of
natural gas, in 2008 the region consumed 459bn cubic metres (bcm) and demand
of 562bcm is
targeted for 2013. Production of 356bcm in 2008 should reach
488bcm in 2013, but implies net imports
easing from an estimated 102bcm
per annum in 2008 to 74bcm in 2013. This is in spite of many Asian
gas
producers being major exporters. Vietnam’s share of gas consumption in
2008 was 1.72%, while its
share of production is put at 2.22%. By 2013,
its share of gas consumption is forecast to be 3.74%, with
the country
accounting for 4.30% of supply.
For 2009 as a whole, we are now assuming
an average OPEC basket price of US$55.00 per barrel (bbl), a
41.5% decline
year-on-year (y-o-y). This represents an upgrade from the US$52 forecast we
have stuck
with during the past three quarters. Our OPEC basket assumption
delivers likely Brent, WTI, Urals and
Dubai prices of US$56.30, US$57.50,
US$55.60 and US$55.60/bbl respectively. For 2010, we expect to
see a
recovery to US$60.00/bbl for the OPEC price (up from our previous forecast of
US$58), gaining
further ground to US$65.00 in 2011 and to US$70.00/bbl in
2012. Our post-2010 forecasts are unchanged
and we are continuing to use a
long-term price assumption of US$70.00 for 2013-2018.
In 2009, BMI is now
assuming a global average gasoline price of US$62.12/bbl, with the fuel
having
peaked in June. The overall y-o-y fall in 2009 gasoline prices is
put at 40.0%. The BMI gasoil forecast is
for an average price of
US$68.62/bbl, assuming a monthly high of US$92.49/bbl in December. The
fullyear
outturn represents a 43.4% fall from the 2008 level. The annual
jet price level for 2009 is forecast to
be US$65.17/bbl. This compares
with US$124.95/bbl in 2008. The 2009 average naphtha price is put by
BMI
at US$49.06/bbl, down 43.9% from the previous year’s level.
Vietnamese real GDP growth is now forecast by BMI at 2.9% for 2009, down from
the 2008 level of
6.2%. We are assuming 5.0% growth in 2010, followed by
7.0% in 2011, 7.7% in 2012 and 7.9% in 2013.
Exploration success is on the
rise in Vietnam, with a growing number of international oil companies
(IOCs) partnering PetroVietnam in finding and developing hydrocarbon resources
– particularly gas. We
are assuming oil and gas liquids production
peaking at 400,000b/d in 2010, before easing back to
385,000b/d by 2013.
Beyond 2009, consumption is forecast to increase by around 7% per annum to
2013,
implying demand of 434,000b/d by the end of the forecast period. Gas
supply and demand is forecast to
increase from the 2008 figure of 8bcm to
21bcm by 2013.
Between 2008 and 2018, we are forecasting an increase in
Vietnamese oil production of 4.1%, with crude
volumes peaking at
400,000b/d in 2010, before slipping to 330,000b/d by 2018. Oil consumption
between
2008 and 2018 is set to increase by 76.5%, with growth beyond 2009
slowing to an assumed 6.0-7.0% per
annum towards the end of the period and
the country using 589,000 b/d by 2018. Gas production is
expected to rise
from 8bcm in 2008 to 27bcm in 2018. With identical demand growth, we see no
potential
for imports or exports during the period. Details of BMI’s
10-year forecasts can be found at the end of
this report, which provides
regional and country-specific projections.
Vietnam still ranks second
ahead of India in BMI’s updated Upstream Business Environment
rating,
reflecting a reasonable resource position, better-than-average
growth outlook, attractive licensing terms
and an IOC-friendly competitive
environment. The country sits well behind Australia. Vietnam now ranks
equal seventh with the Philippines in BMI’s updated Downstream Business
Environment rating,
reflecting its lack of 2008 refining capacity, but
above-average oil and gas demand growth outlook, plus a
low level of
retail site intensity.
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