Abstract
Bishop and Associates has just released a seven chapter, 197 page report
providing an in-depth analysis for the “Post-Recession Outlook of the
Electronics Industry and Connectors - Roadmap 2009-2019”.
This new report is a roadmap study of the electronics industry and connectors,
with 90 tables and many photos and illustrations. Taking off from work done on
the 2009 iNEMI Roadmap, this study analyzes major elements of the electronics
industry that parallel, intersect and influence connectors, and looks at the
connector industry' s markets, technology and forecasts major product roadmaps
from 2009-2019. Compiled during, and influenced by the 2008-2009 recession,
the report analyzes how the industry will move forward from the current point
in time, and forecasts markets from 2007-2013 and gives a long-range outlook
to 2019, including the impact of a slowing IC technology - a critical driver
for connector technology and demand.
Deep recessionary forces facing electronics were caused by forces external to
the industry - not by boom and bust cycles in the industry such as happened
in 2000. The 2008-2009 recession was caused by a crisis in the financial and
housing sectors, followed by a credit crunch and stock market plunge that shut
off demand for products and services.
This crisis had been building in the economy for some time, brought on by
cheap credit, speculation in the housing market, and a lack of conservative
financial management. As of this writing, the 2009 downturn is still
lingering, although it may have hit bottom in 1Q09. There are some signs of
improvement, the ‘connector confidence index' is up, but positive
changes are slow and painful for some. Employment tends to lag recovery, and
this recession is no different. We do not know for certain when and how fast
positive growth will resume. There remains a ‘big hole' to dig out of,
which may result in a 3 year period of recovery.
Many forecasters think the recession has or will soon end, and will be
followed by a slow recovery in 4Q09, picking up 2010. There is some
improvement as of Sept 2009, but 1H09 was down 35 percent from 2008. There
remains uncertainty due to the unprecedented situation we have faced:
- Unknown depth and breadth of the current credit crunch.
- Government response, which is exploding debt and will require tax
increases.
- Continuing impact of huge hit on personal savings and investment.
- Continuing impact on discretionary purchases, i.e. electronic equipment,
consumer electronics.
- The now greater exposure of the industry to consumer spending (> 60
percent of total semiconductor dollars).
- Specific industry issues: automotive, consumer, computers/peripherals, and
medical.
- Automotive, a most important connector market, is undergoing a massive
restructuring.
- Government stimulus is mostly non-electronic: Infrastructure, social
Programs.
The connector industry forecast 2009-2013 is conservative - based on depth of
current recession and issues in automotive market. Growth rate 2008-13 is just
1.5 percent, indicating a slow recovery similar to what occurred after 911.
But growth rate 2009-13 is 9.5 percent/year.
Possibility exists for a more robust recovery, with pent up demand. This seems
unlikely due to continued high levels of unemployment, slow recovery in
housing market, and other issues
This report will examine longer-term growth and opportunity in the electronics
industry and connectors, plus potential barriers to success.
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