Abstract
The converging bandwidth and form-factor demands of data center, PC
interconnect, and consumer electronics has led to an industry-wide drive to
re-package parallel optics in an easy-to-use cable bundle; the active optical
cable (AOC). Cynics may point out that there have been efforts like this
before, but better lasers and improvements in both fiber media and the
optoelectronics inside transceiver modules suggest that this time around AOCs
will generate significant new business revenues for the optical networking
business.
As a result, AOC technology is attracting interest from some of the biggest
name in fiber optic networking components and modules including Finisar,
Intel, and Tyco, as well as more specialist companies such as Lightwire,
Luxtera, Reflex Photonics, Tyco and Zarlink. Meanwhile, the AOC "movement" has
achieved added credibility through the decision of the Small Form Factor group
within the T11 Technical Committee, to standardize a common module for Fibre
Channel, InfiniBand, SAS, and Ethernet, called SFF-8436. By attaching such a
physical device to an optical fiber during manufacturing, the developer of an
AOC allows a customer to remove a copper-based pluggable transceiver and plug
in an optical replacement. For the unsophisticated owner of a PC or server,
clustering a device with AOC can be as simple as connecting an Ethernet cable.
And while the initial markets for AOCs will all be very-short reach, several
firms are already developing AOCs with reaches capable of supporting campus
networks.
All this sounds very exciting; a new opportunity at a time when the optical
networking business is going through hard times again. However, optical
networking has overreached in the marketplace in the past and with disastrous
results.
With this in mind, this report provides a realistic assessment of the
prospects for AOCs in all the markets to which it is being targeted; data
centers and enterprise networks, home theater and consumer electronics,
signage, instrumentation, and personal electronics. As part of its goal to
analyze and quantify the market for AOCs in this sector, CIR also compares AOC
to other low-cost optical interfaces (including the simplified serial optics
embodied in the new USB 3.0.) and also the latest in copper connectivity.
The report contains a granular five-year forecast of the AOC market with a
consideration of multiple scenarios in new - but potentially large - markets
such as personal computing and home video. It also considers supply chain
issues and how firms that have traditionally supplied products for high-end
data center or telecom applications can break into mass markets of this kind.
Although this report covers a new area, it draws on CIR' s decades-long
experience on covering opportunities in the transceiver/transponder and laser
business and we believe that it will be essential reading for strategic
planners and marketing managers at manufacturers of cabling, components,
transceiver/transponders, equipment and consumer electronics.
Methodology and Information Sources for Report
The information and analysis contained in this report is based on an extensive
interview program conducted over several months starting in Q2 2009, extending
into late Q3 2009. Firms covered in this program included many of the
networking equipment and components firms active in the standardization
process for next-generation networks and some firms that have products that
seem destined for this space as it emerges. We also talked with some large
service providers.
While no claim is made that our selection of firms for interviewing is
“scientific” in any obvious sense, we did try to include companies
- and interviewees - that were either influential in the segments of the
markets that they serve or could potentially be so. In our interviews, we did
not use a structured questionnaire, but instead focused our discussions with
the firms interviewed on their particular special area of activity. Thus, for
example, the focus of our discussions with transceiver module manufacturers
was on the characteristics of modules used in AOC assemblies. This approach,
CIR believes, leads to the deepest insight into what is really driving
markets, since it is based on an insider' s perspective. In addition to the
primary research carried out for this report, CIR also conducted an extensive
search of secondary sources including research publications, white papers,
corporate Web sites, SEC information, standards information and previous CIR
reports. Lastly, CIR has been actively researching and analyzing the optical
market for over twenty years. This market is not new territory for us.
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