Ukrainian Power Engineering

Table of Contents

TABLE OF CONTENTS

1. Investment case
Mid caps:
Small caps:

2. Stock Market Monitor

3. Introduction

4. Power engineering: Broad-based demand
Leaders' share of the global market is on the decline
Energy consumption favors Ukrainian equipment producers
Ukraine: Newly adopted CapEx programs will boost domestic demand
Russian energy sector raises orders

5. Russian energy companies need Ukraine
Acquisition of Ukrainian competitors

6. Power engineering holding?
Alternatives to a holding

7. MID CAPS - companies profiles

7.1 Zaporizhtransformator
INVESTMENT CASE
SHARE PRICE PSRFORMANCE - chart
MARKET INFORMATION - table
STOCK OWNERSHIP - table
MARKET MULTIPLES - table
KEY RATIO - table
Transformer Output, units - chart
Demand
Global transformer market set to balloon
Ukraine: 3x increase in demand expected
Competition
Capacity and CapEx
Sales and order book
2007 order book
Financial notes
Low liquidity...
Another alternative: Transformer holding
Valuation
DCF
Peer valuation
Valuation summary

7.2 Sumy Frunze
INVESTMENT CASE
SHARE PRICE PSRFORMANCE - chart
MARKET INFORMATION - table
STOCK OWNERSHIP - table
MARKET MULTIPLES - table
KEY RATIO - table
Pumps Output, units - chart
Demand
Sales and market breakdown
Key markets
Risks related to Iran' s nuclear program
Competition
Sales and order book
Sales growth by type of products
Enough capacity to meet demand
2007 order book
Getting into the state' s zirconium pipe business?
Financial notes
Valuation
DCF
Peer valuation
Valuation summary

7.3 Turboatom
INVESTMENT CASE
SHARE PRICE PSRFORMANCE - chart
MARKET INFORMATION - table
STOCK OWNERSHIP - table
MARKET MULTIPLES - table
KEY RATIO - table
Output Dynamics - chart
Demand
Key markets
Competition
CIS monopoly in low speed turbines
After-market business
2007 order book
Sales forecasts
Financial notes
Privatization?
Valuation
DCF
Peer valuation
Valuation summary

8. Small caps - companies profiles

8.1 Poltava Turbomechanical Plant
Peer valuation

8.2 Constar
Peer valuation

8.3 Sumy Nasosenergomash
Peer valuation

8.4 Rivne High-Voltage Insulator Plant
Peer valuation


CHARTS
Sector performance, YTD
Market
SMASH: Valuation results, USD
TATM: Valuation results, USD
ZATR: Valuation results, USD
ROVA: Valuation results
SNEM: Valuation results
KNST: Valuation results
PTMZ: Valuation results
Sumy Frunze - Stock performance
Sumy Frunze - Spread, %
Sumy Frunze - Monthly trading volumes, mln
Zaporizhtransformator - Stock performance
Zaporizhtransformator - Spread, %
Zaporizhtransformator - Monthly trading volumes, mln
Turboatom - Stock performance
Turboatom - Spread, %
Turboatom - Monthly trading volumes, mln
Rivne High-Voltage Equipment - Stock performance
Rivne High-Voltage Equipment - Spread, %
Rivne High-Voltage Equipment - Monthly trading volumes, mln
Sumy Nasosenergomash - Stock performance
Sumy Nasosenergomash - Spread, %
Sumy Nasosenergomash - Monthly trading volumes, mln
Poltava Turbomechanical -Stock performance
Poltava Turbomechanical -Spread, %
Poltava Turbomechanical -Monthly trading volumes, mln
Ukrainian power engineering in the energy consumption chain
Sales destinations, 2006 - Sumy Frunze
Sales destinations, 2006 - Zaporizhtransformator
Sales destinations, 2006 - Turboatom
Sales destinations, 2006 - Rivne High-Voltage Equipment plant
Sales destinations, 2006 - Sumy Nasosenergomash
Sales destinations, 2006 - Poltava Turbomechanical
Sales destinations, 2006 - Kryviy Rih Turbine Plant Constar
Suppliers of energy machinery, by group of origin
Global market share
Growth in energy delivered to end users, % 2004-2030
Electricity companies, Naftogaz and Energoatom investments, USD bln
Incremental electrical capacity in Ukraine, MW
RAO UES, Gazprom and RosEnergoAtom investments, USD bln
Russia turbine needs and suppliers
Global investments into electricity transmission & distribution, USD mln
Annual investments for upgrading distribution networks
CIS transformer producers by installed capacity, GVA
Zaporizhtransformator' s capacity, GVA
Sales destinations, USD mln
Financial performance
Operating profit breakdown by peer, 2006
Return on Invested Capital
Operating model summary, USD mln
Valuation results, USD
Sales structure in 2006, %
Global natural gas primary demand, bcm
World proven reserves of natural gas in 2004, tcm
Sumy Frunze' s estimated production growth for different types of products
Common size financials, 2006
SG&A/Sales, 2006
Return on invested capital, % 2006
Operating model summary, USD mln
Valuation results, USD
Sales structure in 2006, %
Russian electricity production forecasts, GWh
Electricity production forecasts, GWh
Main NPP turbine producers (by installed capacity), %
Map of Turboatom' s supplied turbines
Common size financials, 2006
EBITDA margins, 2006
Return on invested capital, % 2006
Shareholder structure, 2006
Operating model summary, USD mln
Valuation results, USD


TABLES

Market multiples
Snapshot of key data
Grigorishyn' s (Energy Standard) assets structure
Possible Energy Standard holding
DCF output, UAH mln, as of October 9
Sensitivity analysis
Peer summary, USD mln
Peer multiples
Summary: Competitors by type of product
Sumy Frunze capacity and utilization, 2006
DCF output, UAH mln, as of October 9
Sensitivity analysis
Peer summary, USD mln
Peer multiples
Turboatom' s revenues from projects, USD mln
DCF output, UAH mln, as of October 9
Sensitivity analysis
Peer summary, USD mln
Peer multiples
Poltava Turbomechanical Plant - Peer summary, USD mln
Poltava Turbomechanical Plant - Peer multiples
Constar - Peer summary, USD mln
Constar - Peer multiples
Sumy Nasosenergomash - Peer summary, USD mln
Sumy Nasosenergomash - Peer multiples
Rivne High-Voltage Insulator Plant - Peer summary, USD mln
Rivne High-Voltage Insulator Plant - Peer multiples