Abstract
This report will also only look at the original equipment manufacturer (OEM)
market, and will not include the battery replacement market. The market
figures presented in the following sections will be based on the cost of power
packs to OEMs, not to the end users. In addition, the cost of a smart power
pack is assumed to decline over time, and this decline will include battery
cells, fuel cells and electronics. Price declines will vary from chemistry to
chemistry and between various types of applications. The following sections of
this report will present forecasts in units, dollars and pricing trends. They
will be are broken down by chemistry and by end-use application. Before
introducing the detailed forecasts, a section detailing some of the
forecasting assumptions will be presented.
Forecasting Assumptions
With the addition of several new application categories, this years report
will more accurately reflect recent changes in consumer preferences,
technological advancements and migration among battery chemistries. Despite
these changes, the projected growth in the portable power pack market through
2013 should be consistent with the numbers forecasted in the 2005 Power Pack
report. The abundance of available data sources and the ability to quantify
economic growth have allowed us to present a traditional forecasting model. As
in our last report, with established products such as Li-ion, NiCd and NiMH
batteries, it is relatively simple to quantify the current and past market
sizes, and then make reasonable projections about their future growth and
dynamics. However, for newer chemistries that are still in their growth phase,
like Li-polymer, the forecasting techniques used will be different than those
used for the established markets.
Fuel Cells will also be covered in this report. Fuel cells are an
electrochemical technology still under commercial development, and their
involvement in the portable electronics market is still in its infancy. There
are several main hurdles to overcome before fuel cells become a replacement or
alternative for traditional batteries, primarily; cell power management and
the ability to scale down to a practical size and safety. In addition,
government regulations are another factor that may slow down the introduction
and commercialization of this technology. Therefore, although unit penetration
of fuel cells is forecasted, pricing and dollar market values are not.
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