Table of Contents
ABOUT DATAMONITOR 2
CHAPTER 1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 3
- Australian and European Mortgage Markets Compared 3
- Interest rates are low in Australia and across Europe 3
- The level of owner occupation in Australia is equal to the European average 5
- European mortgage market gross advances amounted to EUR 773.4 billion at the end of 2002 7
- Australian house price increases have matched those in the European hot spots 8
- Developments in the European mortgage bond market 10
- Country specific chapters 10
- The amendment of the Mortgage Bank Act, 2002 11
- Accounting for the Spanish house price boom 12
- Competitor profile: Rabobank 13
- A brief history of Rabobank 13
- Rabobank has a 24 per cent share of the Dutch mortgage market 16
- A SWOT analysis of Rabobank 17
- Forecast of gross advances in the Swedish mortgage market, 2003-2007 19
- Market entry opportunities 21
- Future Opportunities in European Mortgage Markets 22
- The fastest growing markets will remain so over the next five years although growth rates will be lower across the board 22
- Competitive intensity has increased confirming optimism about the future of mortgage markets in the transition economies 24
CHAPTER 2 INTRODUCTION 29
- What is this report about? 29
- Who is the target reader? 29
- How to use this report 30
- Scope 31
- Related reports 31
CHAPTER 3 AUSTRALIAN AND EUROPEAN MORTGAGE MARKETS COMPARED 33
- Macroeconomic conditions 33
- Unemployment has fallen in most countries 33
- Interest rates are low in Australia and across Europe 38
- Australia is enjoying faster GDP growth than many European countries 42
- The composition of housing stock 44
- Australia has a higher number of persons per dwelling than countries in Europe 44
- The level of owner occupation in Australia is equal to the European average 47
- Lending figures 51
- Total lending commitments have risen rapidly 52
- European mortgage market gross advances amounted to EUR 773.4 billion during 2002 55
- European mortgage market balances outstanding stood at EUR 3,702 billion at the end of 2002 58
- Mortgage balances outstanding as a percentage of GDP vary widely within Europe 60
- The number of residential mortgage loans advanced in Europe surpassed 3.1 million in 2002 63
- House prices 65
- Australian house price increases have matched those in the European hot spots 66
- Product availability 71
- A wide array of products is available in the Australian mortgage market 72
- Product availability is generally poorer in Europecalthough the UK is an exception 73
- Conclusion 76
- The Australian economic environment is now more uncertain 76
- Expertise gained domestically will be an asset overseas 77
CHAPTER 4 KEY ISSUES IN EUROPEAN MORTGAGE MARKETS 78
- Mortgage product trends within Europe 78
- Variable and fixed rate mortgage products vary in popularity within Europe 78
- The changing face of mortgage funding in Europe 84
- Explaining the ways that mortgage lending is funded 84
- Developments in the mortgage bond market 88
- Regulation of European mortgage markets 89
- Basel II: big changes on the horizon in 2006 89
- European Code of Conduct on Home Loans 93
- Mortgage distribution channels 95
- Branches remain the most important mortgage distribution channel 95
- Conclusion 99
CHAPTER 5 THE FRENCH MORTGAGE MARKET 101
- Summary of key issues 101
- State involvement is significant in the French property market 104
- Competitor profile: Crédit Agricole 105
- A brief history of Crédit Agricole 105
- A leader in the French mortgage market 108
- La Poste: a new competitive threat to Crédit Agricole 112
- A SWOT analysis of Crédit Agricole 113
- Forecast of gross advances in the French mortgage market, 2003-2007 115
- Economic difficulties will harm the mortgage market 115
- Market entry opportunities 118
CHAPTER 6 THE GERMAN MORTGAGE MARKET 119
- Summary of key issues 119
- The low level of homeownership: a restriction on the German mortgage market 122
- Regulation 124
- The amendment of the Mortgage Bank Act, 2002 125
- Competitive profile: BHW 126
- The Bauspar system explained 126
- A brief history of BHW 130
- Although Bauspar is still its primary product, BHW has undertaken a major shift in focus over the last few years 133
- A SWOT analysis of BHW 135
- Forecast of gross advances in the German mortgage market, 2003-2007 137
- A higher level of homeownership will boost the mortgage market but only over the long-term 137
- Market entry opportunities 140
CHAPTER 7 THE IRISH MORTGAGE MARKET 141
- Summary of key issues 141
- Irish house prices have rocketed 144
- Regulation 147
- The introduction of the Pfandbrief concept into Ireland 147
- Recent developments in Irish housing policy 147
- Competitor profile: First Active 149
- A brief history of First Active 149
- First Active is the fourth largest mortgage lender in Ireland 153
- First Active brings the current account mortgage comes to Ireland 156
- A SWOT analysis of First Active 158
- Forecast of gross advances in the Irish mortgage market, 2003-2007 160
- Affordability constraints will hinder the market's growth 160
- Market entry opportunities 163
CHAPTER 8 THE ITALIAN MORTGAGE MARKET 164
- Summary of key issues 164
- The ever-growing Italian owner occupied sector 167
- Regulation 169
- Competitor profile: Banca Woolwich 169
- A brief history of Banca Woolwich 169
- Banca Woolwich has become a significant force in the Italian mortgage market 170
- A SWOT analysis of Banca Woolwich 176
- Forecast of gross advances in the Italian mortgage market, 2003-2007 178
- The increasing propensity for Italians to borrow will fuel a growing mortgage market 178
- Market entry opportunities 181
CHAPTER 9 THE DUTCH MORTGAGE MARKET 182
- Summary of key issues 182
- Following several ehotf years Dutch price increases have now slowed 185
- Creating a favorable environment for Dutch home buyers 187
- Regulation 188
- The 2001 income tax reforms: affecting second home owners 189
- Competitor profile: Rabobank 189
- A brief history of Rabobank 189
- Rabobank has a 24 per cent share of the Dutch mortgage market 193
- A SWOT analysis of Rabobank 195
- Forecast of gross advances in the Dutch mortgage market, 2003-2007 197
- The increasing level of owner occupation and steadily increasing house prices will account for rising gross advances 197
- Market entry opportunities 200
CHAPTER 10 THE SPANISH MORTGAGE MARKET 201
- Summary of key issues 201
- Accounting for the Spanish house price boom 204
- Regulation 207
- Improving the position of the cajas 207
- Competitor profile: Banco Popular 209
- A brief history of Banco Popular 209
- Banco Popular has increased its presence in Spain 209
- Banco Popular is relatively well positioned across its product portfolio 211
- Banco Popular's expansion into Portugal: examining the motives and the likely outcomes 215
- A SWOT analysis of Banco Popular 217
- Forecast of gross advances in the Spanish mortgage market, 2003-2007 218
- Growth will remain strong in the Spanish market 218
- Market entry opportunities 221
CHAPTER 11 THE SWEDISH MORTGAGE MARKET 222
- Summary of key issues 222
- A low level of construction is constraining the Swedish mortgage market 225
- Regulation 227
- Bringing the Swedish covered bond market into line with those elsewhere in Europe 227
- Competitor profile: Spintab 228
- A brief history of Spintab 228
- Maintaining operating profits despite falling staff numbers 230
- A diversified distribution network 231
- Taking top spot in the mortgage market 232
- A SWOT analysis of Spintab 235
- Forecast of gross advances in the Swedish mortgage market, 2003-2007 237
- The economy's reaction to the rejection of the euro is key 237
- Market entry opportunities 240
CHAPTER 12 THE UK MORTGAGE MARKET 241
- Summary of key issues 241
- UK house prices have exploded 245
- Regulation 251
- The FSA has a new regulatory remit 251
- Competitor profile: Northern Rock 253
- A brief history of Northern Rock 253
- Northern Rock: a small but successful mortgage lender 255
- Accounting for Northern Rock's success 259
- A SWOT analysis of Northern Rock 264
- Forecast of gross advances in the UK mortgage market, 2003-2007 266
- Higher interest rates will make it a different environment over the next five years 266
- Market entry opportunities 269
CHAPTER 13 FUTURE OPPORTUNITIES IN EUROPEAN MORTGAGE MARKETS 271
- Conclusions from the market forecasts 271
- The changing dynamics of the forecast markets 271
- Slower growth will result in a new business environment over the next five years 275
- Newly emerging European mortgage markets 276]
- Market conditions are now improving 277
- Mortgage markets have benefited as countries have prepared for EU membership 279
CHAPTER 14 APPENDIX 283
- Supplementary data 283
- Underlying drivers of European Mortgage Markets 283
- Key Issues in European Mortgage Markets 286
- Country specific chapters 287
- Definitions 291
- Research methodology 294
- Forecasting methodology 294
- Bibliography 295
- Relevant Datamonitor publications 295
- Reports 295
- Briefings 296
- Future Datamonitor Publications 297
- Relevant links 297
- Europe wide associations and organizations 298
- Country specific associations and organizations 298
- Lenders 300
- Datamonitor custom research capabilities 303
- SPP writing team 305
- How to contact experts in your industry 305
List of Tables
- Table 1: The proportion of the dwelling stock in owner occupation in Australia 5
- Table 2: Countries and competitors covered in chapters five to twelve 11
- Table 3: Key measures of Rabobank's membership and branch infrastructure 15
- Table 4: Countries and competitors covered in chapters five to twelve 31
- Table 5: Unemployment as a percentage of the economically active population in Europe, 1993-1997 37
- Table 6: Unemployment as a percentage of the economically active population in Europe, 1998-2002 38
- Table 7: Eurozone interest rates since the introduction of the single currency on January 1st 1999 40
- Table 8: Real GDP growth rate in European countries, 2000-2002 43
- Table 9: Average number of persons per dwelling in Australia, 2001 46
- Table 10: The average number of persons per dwelling in Europe, 2001 46
- Table 11: The proportion of the dwelling stock in owner occupation in Australia 47
- Table 12: Percentage of dwelling stock that is in owner occupation within Europe 50
- Table 13: Lending commitments in the Australian mortgage market, 1998-2003 H1 53
- Table 14: European mortgage market gross advances, 1998-2002 57
- Table 15: Total lending commitments in the Australian mortgage market, 2002 58
- Table 16: European mortgage market balances outstanding, 1998-2002 60
- Table 17: Residential mortgage balances outstanding as a percentage of GDP in Europe 63
- Table 18: The number of mortgage loans advanced against residential property, 1998-2002 65
- Table 19: Indexed European house price trends, 1998-2002 69
- Table 20: The varying popularity of variable, short-term fixed and long-term fixed rate mortgage products within selected countries in Europe 81
- Table 21: The timescale for the introduction of Basel II within the European Union 91
- Table 22: Countries that had achieved 100 per cent implementation of the European Code of Conduct on Home Loans by the end of 2002 94
- Table 23: Number of branches in Europe, 2002-2005f 99
- Table 24: French mortgage market fact sheet 103
- Table 25: French mortgage market fact sheet continued 104
- Table 26: Balances outstanding for the five largest lenders in the French mortgage market, 2002 110
- Table 27: Forecast gross advances in the French mortgage market, 2003e-2007f 117
- Table 28: German mortgage market fact sheet 121
- Table 29: German mortgage market fact sheet continued 122
- Table 30: Private Bausparkassen in Germany 128
- Table 31: Public Bausparkassen in Germany 129
- Table 32: Value of new Bauspar savings deposits by private Bausparkasse, 2002 132
- Table 33: Forecast of gross advances in the German mortgage market, 2003e-2007f
- 139
- Table 34: Irish mortgage market fact sheet 143
- Table 35: Irish mortgage market fact sheet continued 144
- Table 36: The percentage of houses priced at more than EUR 200,000 in Dublin and
- Ireland 146
- Table 37: The demutualization of First National Building Society in 1998 was one of a number of demutualizations that have occurred in Ireland since the early 1990s 150
- Table 38: Balances outstanding for the five largest lenders in the Irish mortgage market, 2002 155
- Table 39: Forecast of gross advances in the Irish mortgage market, 2003e-2007f 162
- Table 40: Italian mortgage market fact sheet 166
- Table 41: Italian mortgage market fact sheet continued 167
- Table 42: Balances outstanding for the six largest lenders in the Italian mortgage market, 2002 174
- Table 43: Forecast of gross advances in the Italian mortgage market, 2003e-2007f 180
- Table 44: Dutch mortgage market fact sheet 184
- Table 45: Dutch mortgage market fact sheet continued 185
- Table 46: Average property prices in the Netherlands, 1998-2002 186
- Table 47: Key measures of Rabobank's membership and branch infrastructure, 1998- 2003 H1 192
- Table 48: Balances outstanding for the largest five lenders in the Dutch mortgage market, 2002 193
- Table 49: Forecast of gross advances in the Dutch mortgage market, 2003e-2007f 199
- Table 50: Spanish mortgage market fact sheet 203
- Table 51: Spanish mortgage market fact sheet continued 204
- Table 52: Nominal and real mortgage rates in Europe, Q3 2002 207
- Table 53: The five largest lenders in the Spanish mortgage market, 2002 213
- Table 54: Forecast gross advances in the Spanish mortgage market, 2003e-2007f 220
- Table 55: Swedish mortgage market fact sheet 224
- Table 56: Swedish mortgage market fact sheet 225
- Table 57: FöreningsSparbanken, Spintab's parent, is one of the major banking groups in Sweden 229
- Table 58: Mortgage credit institutions in Sweden and their ownership 230
- Table 59: Spintab's distribution network 232
- Table 60: Balances outstanding for the five largest mortgage credit institutions in Sweden, 2002 234
- Table 61: Forecast of gross advances in the Swedish mortgage market, 2003e-2007f 239
- Table 62: UK mortgage market fact sheet 244
- Table 63: UK mortgage market fact sheet continued 245
- Table 64: UK monthly house price increases according to Halifax, 2000-2003 248
- Table 65: Housing transactions and the transaction costs associated with moving home in Europe 251
- Table 66: Northern Rock's branch network, 1998-2002 255
- Table 67: Balances outstanding for the seven largest lenders in the UK mortgage market, 2002 257
- Table 68: Market share of Northern Rock and the five largest UK mortgage lenders, 1998-2002 258
- Table 69: Forecast of gross advances in the UK mortgage market, 2003e-2007f 268
- Table 70: Forecasts of gross advances in eight European mortgage markets, 2003e-2007f 274
- Table 71: Share of gross advances in the eight forecast mortgage markets, 2003e-2007f 274
- Table 72: New member states and applicant countries to join the European Union 280
- Table 73: Changes in the Swedish base rate since January 1999 283
- Table 74: Changes in the Danish base rate since January 1999 284
- Table 75: Changes in the UK base rate since January 1999 285
- Table 76: Percentage share of total European gross advances by country, 1998-2002 286
- Table 77: Percentage share of total European balances outstanding by country, 1998-2002 287
- Table 78: Exchange rates applied in the UK and Sweden country specific chapters 287
- Table 79: Balances outstanding and market share for the 30 largest lenders in the UK mortgage market, 2002 288
- Table 80: Indexed mortgage balances outstanding by competitor in the UK mortgage market, 1998-2002 289
- Table 81: Additional competitor balances outstanding data not presented in chapter eight and eleven 289
- Table 82: Competitor information for markets not covered in chapters five to twelve 290
List of Figures
- Figure 1: The Australian cash rate has fallen significantly over the last decade 4
- Figure 2: Three countries in Europe have 80 per cent or more of their dwelling stock in owner occupation while a further five have less than 60 per cent of dwellings in this form of tenure 7
- Figure 3: In 2002 mortgage market gross advances in the UK accounted for more than 40 per cent of the European total 8
- Figure 4: At the end of the second quarter of 2003 the Australian house price index for an established house surpassed 224 index points 9
- Figure 5: At the end of the first half of 2003 Rabobank's total assets stood at more than EUR 400 billion 14
- Figure 6: Rabobank has decreased its number of member banks despite a more than 100 per cent increase in its number of members 15
- Figure 8: Gross advances in the Swedish mortgage market will increase at a compound annual growth of 3.3 per cent between 2003 and 2007 and amount to EUR 28.1 billion by the end of the period 21
- Figure 9: Over the next five years the UK will remain the largest mortgage market in Europe judged in terms of gross advances. However, it will no longer be the fastest growing 23
- Figure 10: Unemployment in Australia has been on a downward trend since 1993 34
- Figure 11: With the exception of Germany, unemployment as a percentage of the economically active population in the five major European economies has fallen over the last decade 36
- Figure 12: The Australian cash rate has fallen significantly over the last decade 39
- Figure 13: The eurozone rate and the Bank of England base rate remain low. However, at times since 1999 there has been a large differential between them 41
- Figure 14: The average number of persons per dwelling in Australia is higher than in Europe 45
- Figure 15: Three countries in Europe have 80 per cent or more of their dwelling stock in owner occupation while a further five have less than 60 per cent of dwellings in this form of tenure 49
- Figure 16: Total lending commitments in Australia have increased rapidly due to the number of investors purchasing property and the popularity of making home improvements 53
- Figure 17: Buy-to-let gross advances and balances outstanding have increased dramatically since 1999 with the latter reaching £24.2 billion in 2002 55
- Figure 18: In 2002 mortgage market gross advances in the UK accounted for more than 40 per cent of the European total 56
- Figure 19: Balances outstanding in Germany at the end of 2002 were EUR 1068.7 billion, 28.9 per cent of total balances outstanding in Europe 59
- Figure 20: In more than ten European countries mortgage balances outstanding are equivalent to less than 50 per cent of GDP 62
- Figure 21: In the seven EU counties for which data is available more than 3.1 million mortgage loans were advanced in 2002 64
- Figure 22: At the end of the second quarter of 2003 the Australian house price index for an established house surpassed 224 index points 66
- Figure 23: The European house price ehot spotsf in recent years have been the Netherlands, Ireland, Spain and the UK 68
- Figure 24: The median price of an Australian first home has increased by more than 59 per cent since 2001 70
- Figure 25: Variable rate mortgage products are more popular in the UK than anywhere else in Europe. In contrast, in Germany long-term fixed rate products are the most common type of mortgage product 80
- Figure 26: In contrast to most other economies in Europe, the UK has both a high penetration of variable rate mortgage loans and high mortgage balances outstanding relative to GDP 84
- Figure 27: Using retail deposits is the most common way to fund mortgage lending in Europe 86
- Figure 28: Explanation of the risk associated with the use of retail deposits to fund fixed rate mortgage lending 87
- Figure 29: Germany accounts for more than 40 per cent of balances outstanding on mortgage bonds in Europe 88
- Figure 30: According to the CML's Annual Housing Finance Survey 2002, 79 per cent of mortgage holders in the UK arranged their current mortgage in a branch 97
- Figure 31: Bank branch networks will continue to contract in the years to 2005 albeit not by as much as previously thought 98
- Figure 32: Retail banking in France accounts for only 13 per cent of Crédit Agricole's total number of employees 107
- Figure 33: Crédit Agricole and the other four largest lenders in France hold more than 77 per cent of the French mortgage market 109
- Figure 34: Mortgage lending is by far the most important type of lending engaged in by Crédit Agricole 111
- Figure 35: A SWOT analysis of Crédit Agricole 115
- Figure 36: Gross advances in the French mortgage market will increase at a compound annual growth rate of 2.9 per cent between 2003 and 2007 and amount to EUR 52.9 billion by the end of the period 117
- Figure 37: BHW is the second largest Bausparkasse in Germany in 2002 based on new Bauspar savings deposits. However, it is some way behind BSH 131
- Figure 38: Almost half of BHW's residential lending book is now in the form of mortgage loans rather than in Bauspar loans 135
- Figure 39: A SWOT analysis of BHW 137
- Figure 40: Gross advances in the German mortgage market will increase at a compound annual growth rate of 1.1 per cent between 2003 and 2007 and amount to EUR 76.0 billion by the end of the period 139
- Figure 41: The rapid increase in Irish house prices is reflected in the increasing percentage of Irish housing that is valued at more than EUR 200,000 145
- Figure 42: The history of First Active in Ireland and the UK 152
- Figure 43: First Active and the other four largest mortgage lenders in Ireland have a combined 77.1 per cent share of the Irish mortgage market 154
- Figure 44: The contribution of residential lending to First Active's loan book increased slightly between 2001 and 2002 156
- Figure 45: A SWOT analysis of First Active 160
- Figure 46: Gross advances in the Irish mortgage market will increase at a compound annual growth rate of 8.1 per cent between 2003 and 2007 and amount to EUR 18.2 billion by the end of the period 162
- Figure 47: The size of the Italian owner occupied sector has increased by six per cent in under ten years to account for 80 per cent of dwellings in 2002 168
- Figure 48: Banca Woolwich's branch network is dwarfed by networks belonging to its larger competitors 170
- Figure 49: With the exception of a slight dip in new business in 2002, Banca Woolwich has grown impressively over the last five years, 1998-2002 171
- Figure 50: The top five lenders have a combined 42.7 per cent share of the Italian mortgage market. Banca Woolwich holds an additional 3.1 per cent share 173
- Figure 51: 80 per cent of Banca Woolwich's mortgage customers are introduced by its partners and intermediaries. Of these, Gabetti is by far the most significant 176
- Figure 52: A SWOT analysis of Banca Woolwich 178
- Figure 53: Gross advances in the Italian mortgage market will increase at a compound annual growth rate of 8.3 per cent between 2003 and 2007 and amount to EUR 78.6 billion by the end of the period 180
- Figure 54: Dutch property price increases have slowed over the last two years 186
- Figure 55: At the end of the first half of 2003 Rabobank's total assets stood at more than EUR 400 billion 190
- Figure 56: Rabobank has decreased its number of member banks despite a more than 100 per cent increase in its number of members 192
- Figure 57: A SWOT analysis of Rabobank 197
- Figure 58: Gross advances in the Dutch mortgage market will increase at a compound annual growth rate of 5.0 per cent between 2003 and 2007 and amount to EUR 127.9 billion by the end of the period 199
- Figure 59: A low nominal mortgage rate and a relatively high rate of inflation combine to produce a low real mortgage rate in Spain 206
- Figure 60: Banco Popular has grown its distribution network and increased its headcount over the last five years 210
- Figure 61: Banco Popular and the other four largest lenders in Spain hold a combined 32.9 per cent share of the Spanish mortgage market 212
- Figure 62: Boosted by the acquisition of the remaining share of Banco Popular Hipotecario (BPH), Banco Popular's total loans and discounts during 2002 surpassed EUR 34 billion 214
- Figure 63: Banco Popular has spread its lending across Spain thus minimizing its vulnerability to any regional fluctuation in the property market 215
- Figure 64: A SWOT analysis of Banco Popular 218
- Figure 65: Gross advances in the Spanish mortgage market will increase at a compound annual growth rate of 9.6 per cent between 2003 and 2007 and amount to EUR 112.1 billion by the end of the period 220
- Figure 66: Though increasing the number of dwellings built per year in Sweden remains low 226
- Figure 67: Significantly decreased staffing costs have contributed to stronger operating profit at Spintab 231
- Figure 68: Spintab has a 30.1 per cent share of total lending by mortgage credit institutions in 2002 233
- Figure 69: A SWOT analysis of Spintab 236
- Figure 70: Gross advances in the Swedish mortgage market will increase at a compound annual growth of 3.3 per cent between 2003 and 2007 and amount to EUR 28.1 billion by the end of the period 239
- Figure 71: UK house price increases have stabilized in 2003 although they remain fairly strong 247
- Figure 72: Northern Rock is a great deal smaller than the big UK high street banks in terms of consolidated total assets, 2002 254
- Figure 73: The top five lenders in the UK mortgage market have a combined 60.4 per cent market share. Northern Rock has a 4.5 per cent share 256
- Figure 74: Northern Rock has grown faster than larger lenders in the UK mortgage market 258
- Figure 75: Compared to the top five competitors in the UK mortgage market, Northern Rock's cost to income ratio is exceptionally low, 2001-2002 262
- Figure 76: In 2003 Northern Rock is fifth most commonly recommended mortgage lender by intermediaries having been third most commonly recommended in 2002 263
- Figure 77: A SWOT analysis of Northern Rock 266 vFigure 78: Gross advances in the UK mortgage market will increase at a compound annual growth rate of 6.0 per cent between 2003 and 2007 and will amount to EUR 527.2 billion in 2007 268
- Figure 79: Over the next five years the UK will remain the largest mortgage market in Europe judged in terms of gross advances. However, it will no longer be the fastest growing 273
- Figure 80: The research methodology used to produce European Mortgages 2003 294
- Figure 81: Datamonitor's core consulting capabilities 304
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