Commercial Insight: Antidepressants - Sliding SSRI Revenues Inevitable

Table of Contents

CHAPTER 1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Scope of the analysis

Datamonitor insight into the antidepressant market

The antidepressant market is set to undergo a period of rapid change as seven out of the eight leading brands suffer US patent expiries by 2008. With only a handful of new products anticipated to replace these blockbuster products, the market is expected to decrease by -21.5% to $13.5 billion by 2011, as physicians are encouraged to utilize cheaper generics. Brand players must look towards maximizing revenues through product differentiation and innovative lifecycle strategies.

Forest' s Lexapro is the only marketed antidepressant expected to achieve a positive CAGR over the full forecast period, 2003–11. Nonetheless, success is reliant on the company' s ability to switch patients from Lexapro' s predecessor, Celexa by convincing physicians of the resulting clinical benefits. The key drivers to initiating this switch are to clearly differentiate the two products and to present Lexapro as a more complete compound.

Wyeth' s noradrenergic, Effexor has positioned itself as a relatively unique product in the antidepressant market. However, with Lilly' s Cymbalta demonstrating a similar mode of action and anticipated to launch in mid 2004, Effexor is expected to undergo its first major challenge to its market position. Effexor must consolidate its position by gaining new indications in areas such as neuropathic pain and moving the focus to primary care.

Summary

Key metrics

Key market events during 2002/2003

Regulators warn about use of antidepressants in pediatrics

Paxil generics launched in the US

Lilly announces expected launch of Cymbalta

CHAPTER 2 MARKET SEGMENTATION & DEFINITION

Strategic scoping and focus

Poor diagnosis and treatment

Concerns over safety

Limited improvements and new chemical entities

Lifecycle strategies

Market definition

The gold standard in major depressive disorder

Associated pharmaceutical markets and indications

Depression and anxiety

Depression and novel non-anxiety indications

CHAPTER 3 GLOBAL MARKET OVERVIEW

Key findings

Global antidepressant market analysis

Global market forecast

Serotonergic class analysis

Serotonergic market performance

Serotonergic value and volume analysis

Serotonergic market forecast

R&D drugs in the serotonergic class

Prozac analysis

Paxil analysis

Zoloft analysis

Celexa analysis

Lexapro analysis

Other recent events in the serotonergic market

Noradrenergic class analysis

Noradrenergic market performance

Noradrenergic market forecast

R&D drugs in the noradrenergic class

Effexor analysis

Remeron analysis

Novel compound class analysis

Novel compound market performance

Novel compound market forecast

R&D drugs in the novel compound class

Wellbutrin analysis

CHAPTER 4 PORTFOLIO AND LIFECYCLE MANAGEMENT

Key findings

Portfolio management

Market attractiveness

Positioning of the major antidepressant players

Portfolio analysis

Lifecycle management of antidepressants

The antidepressant product lifecycle

Launch strategy and market penetration

Optimizing peak sales

Revenue protection strategies

CHAPTER 5 STRATEGIC PRODUCT POSITIONING

Key findings

Physician-focused product positioning

Brand positioning for key products in the major markets

Benchmarks and case studies

Pharmacist role

Patient targeting and influence

Patient sub-group positioning analysis

DTC advertising

Brand imaging

Product specific websites

Company health information websites

Company activity with patient advocacy groups

Patient education initiatives

Pricing and reimbursement

US

EU

Health economic considerations

Pricing strategies

Global antidepressant market data

Serotonergic market data

Noradrenergic market data

Novel compound market data

List of tables

List of figures

Bibliography

Market segmentation and definition

Global market overview

Strategic product positioning

National Formularies

Websites

Report methodology

Date of research completion

About Datamonitor

About Datamonitor Healthcare

Datamonitor Healthcare' s research and analysis methodologies

Datamonitor Healthcare' s therapy area capabilities

About the CNS analysis team

Datamonitor Healthcare' s Consulting expertise

Key therapy team members

Disclaimer

List of Tables

Table 1: Key parameters of the antidepressant market to 2011

Table 2: Forecast for key currently marketed antidepressant products, 2003–11

Table 3: Defining the gold standard: key clinical trial results for fluoxetine

Figure 3: Comparative class contribution to antidepressant market growth by quarter, 2001–02

Figure 4: Global antidepressant market forecast, 2003–11

Table 4: Global antidepressant market forecast, 2003–11

Table 5: Global sales of leading serotonergics ($m), 1997–2002

Figure 5: Relative sales performance of top four serotonergics ($m), 2001–02

Figure 6: Serotonergic value/volume analysis, 2001–02

Figure 7: Serotonergic market concentration, 2003–11

Table 6: Global serotonergic forecast by leading brand, 2003–11

Table 7: R&D included in the serotonergic class forecast, 2003–11

Table 8: Prozac: key facts

Table 9: Key fluoxetine events, 2002–03

Table 10: Paxil: key facts

Table 11: Key paroxetine events, 2003

Table 12: Key paroxetine events, 2002

Table 13: Zoloft: key facts

Table 14: Key sertraline events, 2002–03

Table 15: Celexa: key facts

Table 16: Key citalopram events, 2002–03

Table 17: Lexapro: key facts

Table 18: Key escitalopram events, 2003

Table 19: Key escitalopram events, 2002

Table 20: Serzone: key facts

Table 21: Key nefazodone events, 2002–03

Table 22: Luvox: key facts

Table 23: Key fluvoxamine events, 2002–03

Table 24: Global sales of leading noradrenergics ($m), 1997–2002

Figure 18: Noradrenergic contribution to market growth by quarter, 2001–02

Figure 19: Noradrenergic market concentration, 2003–11

Table 25: Global noradrenergic forecast by leading brand, 2003–11

Table 26: R&D included in the noradrenergic class forecast, 2003–11

Table 27: Effexor: key facts

Table 28: Effexor events, 2002–03

Table 29: Remeron: key facts

Table 30: Mirtazapine events, 2002–03

Table 31: Global sales of leading novel compounds ($m), 1997–2002

Figure 24: Novel compound market concentration, 2003–11

Table 32: Global novel compound forecast by leading brand, 2003–11

Table 33: R&D included in the noradrenergic class forecast, 2003–11

Table 34: Wellbutrin: key facts

Table 35: Key bupropion events, 2002–03

Table 36: Total, CNS and antidepressant performance of the antidepressant market leaders, 2002

Table 37: Growth in total ethical, CNS and antidepressant revenues for the antidepressant market leaders, 2001–02

Table 38: Antidepressant market leader key drug group portfolio composition, 2002

Table 39: Overview of antidepressant pipeline and marketed drugs of key players

Table 40: GSK marketed antidepressant products, 2001–2002

Table 41: Pfizer marketed antidepressant product, 2001–2002

Table 42: Wyeth marketed antidepressant product, 2001–2002

Table 43: Forest marketed antidepressant products, 2001–2002

Table 44: Lundbeck' s marketed antidepressant products, 2001–2002

Table 45: Organon' s marketed antidepressant product, 2001–2002

Table 46: Lilly marketed antidepressant product, 2001–2002

Table 47: BMS' s marketed antidepressant products, 2001–2002

Table 48: Solvay' s marketed antidepressant products, 2001–2002

Table 49: Key themes pursued by major antidepressant companies at main psychiatric conferences, 2003

Table 50: Selected market pricing data for antidepressants, 2003

Table 51: Global sales in the antidepressant market by drug class, 2001–02

Table 52: Serotonergic fact file

Table 53: Global sales of the leading branded serotonergic drugs, 2001–02

Table 54: Noradrenergic fact file

Table 55: Global sales of the leading branded noradrenergic drugs, 2001–02

Table 56: Novel compound fact file

Table 57: Global sales of the leading branded novel compound drugs, 2001–02

List of Figures

Figure 1: Key drivers of the antidepressant market to 2011

Figure 2: Development of the antidepressant drug classes and leading drugs within each class , 1950–2003.

Figure 8: SWOT analysis for Prozac

Figure 9: Global sales forecasts for Prozac, 2003–11

Figure 10: SWOT analysis for Paxil

Figure 11: Global sales forecasts for Paxil, 2003–11

Figure 12: SWOT analysis for Zoloft

Figure 13: Global sales forecasts for Zoloft, 2003–11

Figure 14: SWOT analysis for Celexa

Figure 15: Global sales forecasts for Celexa, 2003–11

Figure 16: SWOT analysis for Lexapro

Figure 17: Global sales forecasts for Lexapro, 2003–11

Figure 20: SWOT analysis for Effexor

Figure 21: Global sales forecasts for Effexor, 2003–11

Figure 22: SWOT analysis for Remeron

Figure 23: Global sales forecasts for Remeron, 2003–11

Figure 25: SWOT analysis for Wellbutrin

Figure 26: Global sales forecasts for Wellbutrin, 2003–11

Figure 27: Competitive attractiveness of the antidepressant market, 2002–11

Figure 28: Comparative attractiveness of the serotonergic class versus noradrenergic class, 2002–11

Figure 29: Positioning of the antidepressant market leader portfolios, 2001–02

Figure 30: Global sales of Prozac, 1992–2002

Figure 31: MDD diagnosing medical professional, 2002

Figure 32: Effexor website information for health care professionals

Figure 33: Prozac patient product positioning

Figure 34: Paxil website

Figure 35: Pfizer' s health information website

Figure 36: National Phobics Society website, sponsored by GSK

Figure 37: Datamonitor' s Healthcare Consultancy

Figure 38: Datamonitor Healthcare' s Therapeutic Consulting capabilities