Digital TV markets 2004: development of the Western European and US markets to 2008

Table of Contents

CHAPTER 1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

• Introduction
• Market context
  • Market development comparison
  • Platform overview: cable, satellite, DTT and IPTV
• Competitive dynamics

CHAPTER 2 INTRODUCTION

• What is this report about?
• How to use this report

CHAPTER 3 MARKET CONTEXT

• Introduction
• Key findings
• Strong growth ahead
• Market development comparison
  • Europe will surpass the US by the end of 2006
• Digital cable overview
  • Consolidation in Europe and the US
  • Focusing on broadband services
  • US market to remain large, but poorly penetrated
• Digital satellite overview
  • Recent mergers highlight importance of scale
  • US to remain the largest market
• Digital terrestrial overview
  • DTT gaining traction in certain markets
  • Learning the lessons of DTT launches
  • The success of Freeview
  • Exporting Freeview's success to other markets
• IPTV: The emergence of a fourth platform for digital TV?
  • A platform that faces significant challenges
  • Business model uncertainty and high costs hinder IPTV rollout
  • Can the market support four digital TV technologies?

CHAPTER 4 COMPETITIVE DYNAMICS

• Introduction
• Key findings
• Austria: digital satellite to dominate a slowly growing market
  • Cable: limited growth due to slow migration of basic subscribers
  • Satellite: the primary TV platform in Austria
  • DTT: trials test MHP interactivity and return path options
  • Fewer than half of Austrian households digital by 2008
• Belgium: digital development driven by the pay-TV sector
  • Digital and pay-TV services available through Canal+
  • Flanders: Telenet dominates
  • Wallonia: fragmented market hinders digital deployment
  • DTT: few signs of life
  • Differentiating basic digital cable services key to growth
• France: continued delays to DTT rollout hinder digital growth
  • Cable: slow growth of digital in 2003
  • Satellite: strong competition between Canal Satellite and TPS
  • DTT: still uncertainties given delayed launch
  • IPTV: France sees a flurry of DSL TV activity
  • Delayed DTT launch and slowing satellite growth restrict DTV
• Germany: growth dependent on basic cable and FTA satellite
  • Premiere dominates the market with almost 3 million subscribers
  • Cable: consolidation holds the key to growth
  • Satellite: development of FTA sector crucial to growth
  • DTT: a successful start to regional rollout
  • Europe's largest digital TV market by the end of 2008
• Italy: DTT to be the largest digital platform by 2007
  • Cable and fixed-line TV services
  • Satellite: positive impact felt following merger in Italy
  • DTT: 2004 launch provides optimism
  • DTT will become the largest digital platform by the end of 2007
• The Netherlands: digital cable to dominate in the long term
  • Cable: Essent Kabelcom seeks to lure basic subscribers to digital
  • Satellite: Canal Digitaal Satellite passes the 500,000 mark
  • DTT: Digitenne gets off to a slow start
  • DTV growth dependent on uptake of basic digital cable services
• The Nordics: cable and DTT set to drive digital penetration
  • Satellite: Canal Digital / Viasat duopoly
  • DTT: strong progress in Finland and Sweden
  • Cable: broad basic packages restrict digital growth
  • Denmark: cable to become the largest platform by 2007
  • Finland: DTT continues to dominate
  • Norway: digital cable set for strong growth
  • Sweden: cable to be the largest digital platform by 2006
• Portugal: delayed DTT deployment restricts growth
  • Cable: limited uptake of digital services to date
  • Satellite: minimal growth expected
  • DTT: further delays hinder switch-off plans
  • DTT to become the leading digital platform
• Spain: satellite to dominate despite strong DTT growth
  • Cable: digital set to grow, while consolidation continues
  • Satellite: renewed optimism following merger
  • DTT: market in a state of limbo
  • IPTV: Telefónica's TV over ADSL service nearing launch
  • Satellite dominance to continue
• Switzerland: continued slow development of digital cable
  • Cable: Cablecom dominates
  • DTT: focus on areas not covered by cable networks
  • DTT and satellite to remain niche in a cable-dominated market
• The UK: success of Freeview maintains the momentum
  • Cable: limited digital growth in 2003
  • Satellite: Sky experiences slowing growth but increasing ARPU
  • DTT: success of Freeview continues
  • Freeview growth drives digital penetration to 82% by 2008
• The US: close competition between cable and satellite
  • Strong digital mandate
  • High definition television (HDTV): the new frontier
  • PVRs: no longer a satellite-only proposition
  • Video-on-Demand: more successful as a subscription service
  • Cable: consolidation set to continue
  • Satellite: more cooperation between operators possible
  • DTT: limited opportunities
  • Over half of US households digital by the end of 2008
• Conclusion

CHAPTER 5 APPENDIX

• Definitions
• Research methodology
• Future readings
  • 2003 reports
  • 2004 reports
• SPP writing team
• How to contact experts in your industry

List of Tables

• Table 1: European digital TV uptake to 2008
• Table 2: Market development comparison, 2003-2008
• Table 3: Digital TV uptake comparison: Europe vs US
• Table 4: European digital cable overview
• Table 5: European digital satellite overview
• Table 6: European digital terrestrial overview
• Table 7: Austrian digital TV uptake to 2008
• Table 8: Belgian digital TV uptake to 2008
• Table 9: French digital TV uptake to 2008
• Table 10: German digital TV uptake to 2008
• Table 11: Italian digital TV uptake to 2008
• Table 12: Dutch digital TV uptake to 2008
• Table 13: Danish digital TV uptake to 2008
• Table 14: Finnish digital TV uptake to 2008
• Table 15: Norwegian digital TV uptake to 2008
• Table 16: Swedish digital TV uptake to 2008
• Table 17: Portuguese digital TV uptake to 2008
• Table 18: Spanish digital TV uptake to 2008
• Table 19: Swiss digital TV uptake to 2008
• Table 20: UK digital TV uptake to 2008
• Table 21: US digital TV uptake to 2008

List of Figures

• Figure 1: European digital TV uptake to 2008
• Figure 2: Market development comparison, 2003-2008
• Figure 3: European digital TV uptake to 2008
• Figure 4: Market development comparison, 2003-2008
• Figure 5: Digital TV uptake comparison: Europe vs US
• Figure 6: Austrian digital TV uptake to 2008
• Figure 7: Belgian digital TV uptake to 2008
• Figure 8: French digital TV uptake to 2008
• Figure 9: German digital TV uptake to 2008
• Figure 10: Italian digital TV uptake to 2008
• Figure 11: Dutch digital TV uptake to 2008
• Figure 12: Danish digital TV uptake to 2008
• Figure 13: Finnish digital TV uptake to 2008
• Figure 14: Norwegian digital TV uptake to 2008
• Figure 15: Swedish digital TV uptake to 2008
• Figure 16: Portuguese digital TV uptake to 2008
• Figure 17: Spanish digital TV uptake to 2008
• Figure 18: Swiss digital TV uptake to 2008
• Figure 19: UK digital TV uptake to 2008
• Figure 20: US digital TV uptake to 2008