Report: Commercial Insight: ADHD - Strattera Reigns Supreme as Branded Stimulants Slump TOC

ABOUT DATAMONITOR HEALTHCARE

About the CNS pharmaceutical analysis team

CHAPTER 1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Objective of the analysis
Datamonitor insight into the ADHD market
Key metrics

CHAPTER 2 MARKET DEFINITION AND OVERVIEW

Market definition for this report
The current ADHD market: The major ADHD market players and franchises; J&Js Concerta; Shires Adderall franchise; Novartiss methylphenidate franchises; UCBs Metadate franchise; Lillys Strattera; Summary of major players and their vital statistics
Strategic scoping and focus

CHAPTER 3 COUNTRY MARKET ASSESSMENTS

Current and future opportunities and threats in the ADHD market: Global opportunities and threats; Opportunities; Threats; US; Market overview; Opportunities; Threats; Japan; Market overview; Opportunities; Threats; France; Market overview; Opportunities; Threats; Germany; Market overview; Opportunities; Threats; Italy; Market overview; Opportunities; Threats; Spain; Market overview; Opportunities; Threats; UK; Market overview; Opportunities; Threats

CHAPTER 4 FORECAST ANALYSIS

Assumptions and events: 2004-05; Revised AACAP guidelines recommend Strattera for first-line ADHD; US approval of new 72mg Concerta dosage regimen; FDA approval of Adderall XR for the treatment of adult ADHD; Adderall XR sNDA submitted for adolescent ADHD; Ongoing patent challenge to Adderall XR; Launch of Concerta in France and Spain; UK launch of Strattera; Strattera labeled with bold product warning; Adderall XR withdrawn from Canadian market; Concerta become the US market leader; Lilly predicts decline in Strattera revenues; Launch of Strattera across the remaining EU countries; Launch of Metadate CD across the remaining EU countries under the brand name Equasym XL; Label changes for methylphenidate drugs; US launch of Focalin XR; Genericization of Concerta; 2006; US launch of SPD-503; US launch of MTS; US launch of Attenace; Launch of generic Adderall XR; 2007; Launch of NRP-104; Launch of SPD-465: Adderall XR2; 2010; Strattera launch in Japan; SPD-503 will have little time to maximize revenues before genericization; 2015; Strattera patent expiry; Focalin and Ritalin LA US patent expiries

CHAPTER 5 COMMERCIAL IMPACT AND LIFECYCLE MANAGEMENT: CASE STUDIES

Adderall XR - damage limitation
The future of J&Js ADHD franchise?: J&Js CNS franchise on top, but set for decline; J&Js ADHD franchise - where to next?; A future without ADHD?
Focus on cognition
Strattera will become market leader in 2007 despite recent setbacks: Stratteras product warning, significantly impacts revenues; All-day reduction in symptomology, may help Strattera to bounce back; Lilly - pushing the boundaries; Stratteras revenues bounce back with the drug becoming market leader in 2007
Licensed indications have driven growth in the adult ADHD market: Promotion of adult ADHD by drug websites; Ideal time to gain approval of adult ADHD in the US; Adult ADHD - a no go in Europe at present time
Seasonal factors should be considered at drug launch: Implications for drug launch

APPENDIX A

Bibliography: Websites; Journals and abstracts

APPENDIXB

Report methodology: Datamonitor forecast methodology; Sales calculations; About Datamonitor

List of Tables

Table 1: Revenue forecast of ADHD drugs across the seven major markets, 2005-15
Table 2: Revenues of ADHD drugs across the seven major markets, 2002-04
Table 3: Revenues of ADHD drugs in the US, 2002-04
Table 4: Revenues of ADHD drugs in Japan, 2002-04
Table 5: Revenues of ADHD drugs in France, 2002-04
Table 6: Revenues of ADHD drugs in Germany, 2002-04
Table 7: Revenues of ADHD drugs in Spain, 2002-04
Table 8: Revenues of ADHD drugs in the UK, 2002-04
Table 9: J&Js US marketed CNS portfolio
Table 10: J&Js CNS R&D pipeline, 2005
Table 11: Child and adult revenues ($m) of ADHD drugs in the US market, 2001-04
Table 12: Child and adult revenues ($m) of ADHD drugs in the EU and Japan, 2001-04
Table 13: Strattera key facts
Table 14: Key Strattera events, 2004-2005
Table 15: Adderall and Adderall XR key facts
Table 16: Key Adderall and Adderall XR events, 2004-2005
Table 17: Concerta key facts
Table 18: Key Concerta events, 2004-2005
Table 19: Ritalin franchise key facts
Table 20: Dexedrine and Dexedrine SR key facts
Table 21: Dextrostat key facts
Table 22: Focalin key facts
Table 23: Key Focalin franchise events, 2004-2005
Table 24: Metadate franchise key facts
Table 25: Key Metadate franchise events, 2003-2005

List of Figures

Figure 1: Revenues of currently branded stimulants, atomoxetine, generics and pipeline ADHD drugs, 2001-15
Figure 2: Revenue market share of the leading branded ADHD drugs, 1999-2004
Figure 3: Seven major market revenue forecast of J&Js ADHD franchise to 2015
Figure 4: Seven major market revenue forecast of Shires ADHD franchise to 2015
Figure 5: Seven major market revenue forecast of Novartis ADHD franchise to 2015
Figure 6: Seven major market revenue forecast of UCBs ADHD franchise to 2015
Figure 7: Seven major market revenue forecast of Lillys ADHD franchise to 2015.
Figure 8: Revenue growth, market share and revenues of leading ADHD drugs across the seven major markets, 2003-04
Figure 9: ADHD drug revenue market share of leading manufacturers, 2001-15
Figure 10: ADHD drug revenues of leading manufacturers, 2001-15
Figure 11: Key players in the ADHD market
Figure 12: NICE method for measuring cost-effectiveness of drug treatment for ADHD
Figure 13: Most cost-effective treatment of ADHD in the UK
Figure 14: Shires damage limitation strategy for Adderall XR
Figure 15: Shires on-line Adderall XR patient questionnaire
Figure 16: Global quarterly revenues of Strattera since launch and key lifecycle events
Figure 17: US revenues of the market-leading ADHD drugs, 2002-05
Figure 18: Adult revenues ($m) of ADHD drugs in the US market, 2001-04
Figure 19: Comparison of ADHD promotion of Strattera and Adderall XR home pages
Figure 20: US drug revenues, 2001-04
Figure 21: Monthly growth and decline of US drug revenues over time, 2001-04
Figure 22: Revenue growth of ADHD drug form launch