Table of Contents
- CHAPTER 1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
- Scope
- Big Pharma peer set
- Biologics to drive Big Pharma sales growth
- mAbs act as key growth component
- The technology lifecycle
- Small molecules
- Therapeutic proteins
- mAbs
- Vaccines
- Competitive forces
- Generic competition
- Pricing leverage - addressing unmet patient need
- Access to drug technology supply chain
- CHAPTER 2 OVERVIEW OF BIG PHARMA PEER SET
- Key findings
- The Big Pharma peer set
- Product type definitions
- Small molecules
- Biologics
- Monoclonal antibodies
- Therapeutic proteins
- Generic competition vs. bio-similars
- The marriage of Big Pharma and biotech
- Amgen - 'The one that got away from Big Pharma'
- Report overview
- CHAPTER 3 SEGMENTATION ANALYSIS OF BIG PHARMA BY DRUG TYPE
- Key findings
- Structure of Chapter 3
- Overview of Big Pharma peer set
- Sales by company
- Sales by therapy area
- Sales by drug type
- Small molecules
- The blockbuster growth model
- Biologics
- Vaccines
- Biologics to drive peer set growth
- Sub-segmentation of the biologics market
- Therapeutic proteins overview
- Monoclonal antibodies overview
- Therapeutic protein sales by therapy area
- Product analysis
- Company analysis
- mAb sales by therapy area
- Product analysis
- Company analysis
- Conclusions
- CHAPTER 4 THE COMPETITIVE FORCES ACTING ON DIFFERENT DRUG TYPES
- Key findings
- Introduction
- Growth rate trajectories by product type
- Relative positioning of product types in technology lifecycle
- Exposure to generic competition
- Other competitive forces
- Adressing unmet patient need & pricing leverage with healthcare
providers
- Access to technology supply chain
- CHAPTER 5 ROCHE AND NOVARTIS - GROWTH BY BIOLOGICS VERSUS SMALL MOLECULES
- Key findings
- Case Study: Roche and Genentech
- Roche leads in drug type diversification...
- ...sharpest focus on mAbs
- Roche ahead of the game...
- ...will drive strongest peer set growth 2004-10
- Roche - best in (mAb) class
- Genentech partnership
- Unprecedented success in mAb therapies
- The key products
- Roche's long-term strategy rewarded
- Roche/Genentech licensing agreement
- mAb growth underplays Roche's revival
- Case study: Novartis - the non biologics growth strategy
- Novartis' generics strategy
- Bio-similars market beckons
- Shift into vaccines
- Small molecule success stories
- List of Tables
- Table 1: Overview of Big Pharma peer set
- Table 2: General characteristics of small molecule drugs vs. biologics
- Table 3: Big Pharma revenues by company, 2001-10f ($m)
- Table 4: Big Pharma ethical drug revenues CAGR by company (%), 2001-10f
- Table 5: Change in annual big pharma ethical drug sales ($m), 2001-04,
2004-07 and 2007-10
- Table 6: Big Pharma revenues by therapy area ($m), 2001-10f
- Table 7: Big Pharma ethical drug revenues CAGR by therapy area ($),
2001-10f
- Table 8: Change in annual Big Pharma ethical drug sales by therapy
area ($m), 2001-04, 2004-07 and 2007-10
- Table 9: Big Pharma revenues by drug type ($m), 2001-10f
- Table 10: Big Pharma revenue CAGR by drug type (%), 2001-10f
- Table 11: Change in annual Big Pharma ethical drug sales ($m),
2001-04, 2004-07 and 2007-10
- Table 12: Big Pharma biologics revenue by product type ($m), 2001-10f
- Table 13: Big Pharma revenue CAGR by biologic product type (%),
2001-10f
- Table 14: Change in annual Big Pharma sales by biologic product type
($m), 2001-04, 2004-07 and 2007-10)
- Table 15: Big Pharma therapeutic protein revenues by therapy area
($m), 2001-10f
- Table 16: Big Pharma therapeutic protein revenue CAGR by therapy area
(%), 2001-10f
- Table 17: Change in annual Big Pharma therapeutic protein revenues
($m), 2001-04, 2004-07 and 2007-10
- Table 18: Leading Big Pharma therapeutic protein drugs revenues ($m),
2004-10
- Table 19: Big Pharma mAb revenues by therapy area ($m), 2001-10f
- Table 20: Big Pharma mAb revenue CAGR by therapy area, 2001-2010f (US$
m)
- Table 21: Change in annual Big Pharma mAb revenues by therapy area
($m), 2001-04, 2004-07 and 2007-10
- Table 22: Leading mAb products by 2010 revenues ($m), 2004-10
- Table 23: CAGR by drug type (%), 2001-10f
- List of Figures
- Figure 1: Pfizer will retain its market leading position, but Roche
and Novartis will record the strongest sales growth out to 2010
- Figure 2: CAGR by product type (%), 2001-04, 2004-07 and 2007-10
- Figure 3: Biologics are expected to act as the primary growth driver
for the Big Pharma peer set, accounting for c60% of absolute annual sales
growth over 2004-10
- Figure 4: mAbs - the 'second wave' of product technology to emerge
from the biotech sector - will overtake therapeutic protein sales (within
the Big Pharma peer set) by 2008 ($bn)
- Figure 5: Respective positioning of drug types in the technology
lifecycle during 2001-10 - mAbs positioned just after inflection point,
small molecules significantly more mature (Ymax = Year of inflection point
(maximum growth rate)
- Figure 6: Respective Technology Lifecycles for each product type based
on real (company-reported and Datamonitor forecast) data
- Figure 7: Overview of competitive forces driving drug type revenue
performance
- Figure 8: A breakdown of small molecule absolute annual sales growth
by lifecycle phase indicated considerable drag from patent expiries -
causing small molecule sales growth to treadmill
- Figure 9: Big Pharma ethical drug sales split by Biologics and
Non-Biologics revenues illustrates the dominant position expected to be
held by Roche in 2010 (%)
- Figure 10: The business strategies of Roche and Novartis are clearly
different but share a similarity in so far that they have shifted a
notable focus away from the branded small molecule market
- Figure 11: Big Pharma ethical drug revenues by company ($bn), 2001-10f
- Figure 12: Change in annual big pharma ethical drug sales ($bn),
2004-10
- Figure 13: Big Pharma ethical drug revenues by therapy area ($m),
2001-10f
- Figure 14: Change in annual Big Pharma ethical drug sales by therapy
area ($bn), 2004-10
- Figure 15: Big Pharma Ethical Drug Revenues by Product Type ($bn),
2001-10f
- Figure 16: Change in annual Big Pharma ethical drug sales by product
type ($bn), 2004-10f
- Figure 17: Big Pharma Biologics Revenue by Product Type ($bn), 2001-10f
- Figure 18: Change in annual Big Pharma sales by biologic product type
($bn), 2004-10
- Figure 19: Big Pharma therapeutic protein revenues by therapy area
($bn), 2001-10f
- Figure 20: Change in annual Big Pharma therapeutic protein revenues
($bn), 2004-10
- Figure 21: Big Pharma therapeutic protein revenues by company ($bn),
2001-10f
- Figure 22: Big Pharma mAb revenues by therapy area ($bn), 2001-10f
- Figure 23: Annual Change in Big Pharma mAb Revenues by Therapeutic
Area ($bn), 2004-10f
- Figure 24: Big Pharma mAb revenues by company ($bn), 2001-10f
- Figure 25: Big Pharma Ethical Drug Revenues by Company and
Biologic/Non Biologic Split 2001 and 2010
- Figure 26: Annual Increase in Big Pharma Sales by Product Type,
2004-2010 ($ bn)
- Figure 27: CAGR by product type (%), 2001-04, 2004-07 and 2007-10
- Figure 28: Position of drug types in Big Pharma technology lifecycle
during time period, 2001-10
- Figure 29: Technology lifecycle/sales growth curve by product type
based on reported and forecast data ($m), 2001-10
- Figure 30: Idealized growth curve by product type for 2001-10 time
window
- Figure 31: Evolution of mAb technology lifecycle by growth phase
- Figure 32: Evolution of statin class technology lifecycle
- Figure 33: Intensity of generic erosion in relation to position of
product type in technology lifecycle
- Figure 34: Breakdown of small molecule absolute annual sales growth by
launch, core and expiry ($bn), 2004-10
- Figure 35: Breakdown of therapeutic protein absolute annual sales
growth by launch, core and expiry ($bn), 2004-10
- Figure 36: Breakdown of mAb absolute annual sales growth by launch,
core and expiry ($bn), 2004-10
- Figure 37: Intensity of generic competition by product type
- Figure 38: Key competitive forces determining respective CAGR for
small molecules, TPs, mAbs and vaccines
- Figure 39: Absolute annual mAb sales growth by company ($bn), 2004-10
- Figure 40: Annual change in Roche sales by product type ($bn), 2004-10
- Figure 41: Roche absolute annual growth tree by technology and leading
product ($m), 2004-10
- Figure 42: Roche absolute annual mAb sales growth by product ($m),
2004-10
- Figure 43: Differing Growth Strategies for Roche and Novartis
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