Commercial Insight: Transplantation

Table of Contents

• About Datamonitor Healthcare
• About the Respiratory and Infectious Disease team
• CHAPTER 1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
  • Scope
  • Datamonitor insight into the disease market
• CHAPTER 2 MARKET OVERVIEW
  • Transplantation market valued at $3.3 billion
  • History of immunosuppression therapy
• CHAPTER 3 MARKET ENVIRONMENT
  • Modest growth in the number of transplants
  • Uptake of novel maintenance therapies limited to de novo transplants
  • Low percentage of patients continue original regimens
  • The cost of non-adherence
  • Impact of pricing controls
• CHAPTER 4 FORECAST ANALYSIS
  • Calcineurin inhibitors
    • No difference in long-term efficacy between Neoral and Prograf
    • Limited generic erosion of Prograf sales
    • Primary use of once-daily Prograf reformulation in de novo transplants
    • Slow uptake of generic cyclosporine maintains Neoral's sales
  • mTOR inhibitors
    • Rapamune use expands in US
    • Certican US launch in early 2008
  • Adjunctive therapy
    • CellCept to remain dominant until patent expiry
    • Myfortic not sufficiently differentiated from CellCept
    • FK-778 demonstrates antiviral activity against polyoma virus
  • Induction therapy
    • Belatacept holds promise as alternative to calcineurin inhibitors
• CHAPTER 5 SALES FORECASTS
  • Global forecasts
  • US forecasts
  • Japan forecasts
  • France forecasts
  • Germany forecasts
  • Italy forecasts
  • Spain forecasts
  • UK forecasts
• CHAPTER 6 APPENDIX
  • Market definition
  • Forecasting assumptions and estimates
  • References
  • About Datamonitor
  • Disclaimer
  • List of Tables
    • Table 1: Global brand performance ($m), 2005-15
    • Table 2: Percentage of retail sales of tacrolimus, MMF, and cyclosporine in transplantation (%)
    • Table 3: Number of transplants by organ, seven major markets, 2000-05
    • Table 4: Transplants by organ, by country, 2005-15
    • Table 5: Continuation of original immunosuppressive discharge regimen in kidney patients transplanted in 2002, US
    • Table 6: Prograf generic erosion and pricing assumptions (%)
    • Table 7: Relative pricing of reformulations launched in the US
    • Table 8: Belatacept patient model
    • Table 9: Forecast sales, Global, 2005-15 ($m)
    • Table 10: Forecast sales, US, 2005-15 ($m)
    • Table 11: Forecast sales, Japan, 2005-15 ($m)
    • Table 12: Forecast sales, France, 2005-15 ($m)
    • Table 13: Forecast sales, Germany, 2005-15 ($m)
    • Table 14: Forecast sales, Italy, 2005-15 ($m)
    • Table 15: Forecast sales, Spain, 2005-15 ($m)
    • Table 16: Forecast sales, UK, 2005-15 ($m)
    • Table 17: Percentage of retail sales of tacrolimus, MMF, and cyclosporine in transplantation
  • List of Figures
    • Figure 1: Global sales performance by class ($m), 2005-15
    • Figure 2: Global brand performance ($m), 2005-15
    • Figure 3: Use of CellCept and Prograf, % kidney transplant patients prior to discharge, 1995 to 2004, US
    • Figure 4: Neoral and generic cyclosporine volume, 2001-2005, US
    • Figure 5: Continuation of original immunosuppressive discharge regimen in kidney patients transplanted in 2002, US
    • Figure 6: Generic erosion of Prograf and Neoral, US
    • Figure 7: Prograf and modified-release tacrolimus (FK-506MR4) sales ($m), 2005-15, global