Table of Contents
- DATAMONITOR VIEW
- CATALYST
- SUMMARY
- METHODOLOGY
- ANALYSIS
- Central and Eastern Europe is increasingly taking the lead in terms of
changing European market fundamentals
- Energy demand growth in Central and Eastern Europe has outpaced that
in more mature markets such as the US and Western Europe, though remains
largely below the global average
- Recent power demand growth rates in Central and Eastern European have
been up to four times those seen in the UK and the US
- Recent gas demand growth rates in Central and Eastern Europe have been
in stark contrast to demand declines in more mature markets
- Short term energy demand growth potential is largely influenced by
four key interdependent factors
- CEE per capita energy demand is significantly behind that in the US
and Western Europe indicating strong demand growth potential
- GDP growth rates in CEE are generally above those forecasted for
elsewhere and will more than outweigh population decreases in terms of
energy demand growth
- Foreign players are increasingly turning their attention to the CEE
region as an investment opportunity
- Changing market fundamentals point to increasingly interrelated energy
markets
- As European gas and power markets liberalise, the required factors for
wholesale hub development will begin to emerge further
- The development of wholesale markets tends to follow a preset pattern
of distinct stages
- As Europe's most liberalised gas market, the UK's NBP hub leads
European wholesale gas liquidity
- Significant future potential exists in the Dutch TTF market which has
grown at a faster rate than the UK NBP
- Some fledgling gas hubs are beginning to emerge outside of the UK's
NBP market, currently Europe's most liquid gas market
- A number of wholesale power markets are currently at various stages of
development across Europe
- In the decade after full market opening, five regional power hubs are
likely to emerge across Europe from the existing wholesale markets
- Post full market opening, gas market hub development will be driven by
individual wholesale market dynamics and arbitrage synergies
- New infrastructure development and changing supply patterns mean that
LNG will increasingly drive market fundamentals in Europe and the US
- LNG provides an alternative way to pipelines for moving gas over long
distances
- A large number of European markets are either building or planning new
LNG reception terminals
- European LNG market dynamics have the potential to alter significantly
as new sources of production emerge closer to home
- Significant expansion in LNG regasification capacity is also under way
in the USA
- The growth in global LNG means that European gas and power market
fundamentals will increasingly be driven by the US market
- The LNG value chain is of growing relevance to the US power sector as
well as gas supply utilities
- APPENDIX
- Current, Planned and Proposed US LNG Import Terminals
- CONSTRUCTED
- APPROVED BY FERC
- APPROVED BY MARAD/COAST GUARD
- CANADIAN APPROVED TERMINALS
- MEXICAN APPROVED TERMINALS
- PROPOSED TO FERC
- PROPOSED TO MARAD/COAST GUARD
- Definitions
- Further reading
- Ask the analyst
- List of Figures
- Figure 1: Energy demand growth in Central and Eastern Europe has
outpaced that in more mature markets such as the US and Western Europe,
though remains largely below the global average
- Figure 2: Recent power demand growth rates in Central and Eastern
European have been up to four times those seen in the UK and the US
- Figure 3: Recent gas demand growth rates in Central and Eastern Europe
have been in stark contrast to demand declines in more mature markets
- Figure 4: Short term energy demand growth potential is largely
influenced by four key interdependent factors
- Figure 5: CEE per capita energy demand is significantly behind that in
the US and Western Europe indicating strong demand growth potential
- Figure 6: GDP growth rates in CEE are generally above those forecasted
for elsewhere and will more than outweigh population decreases in terms of
energy demand growth
- Figure 7: As European gas and power markets liberalise, the required
factors for wholesale hub development will begin to emerge further
- Figure 8: The development of wholesale markets tends to follow a
preset pattern of distinct stages
- Figure 9: As Europe's most liberalised gas market, the UK's NBP hub
leads European wholesale gas liquidity
- Figure 10: TTF growth versus NBP growth
- Figure 11: Some fledgling gas hubs are beginning to emerge outside of
the UK's NBP market, currently Europe's most liquid gas market
- Figure 12: A number of wholesale power markets are currently at
various stages of development across Europe
- Figure 13: Likely Power Hubs by 2018
- Figure 14: Likely Gas Hubs by 2018
- Figure 15: LNG provides an alternative way to pipelines for moving gas
over long distances
- Figure 16: A large number of European markets are either building or
planning new LNG reception terminals
- Figure 17: European LNG market dynamics have the potential to alter
significantly as new sources of production emerge closer to home
- Figure 18: Current, Planned and Proposed US LNG Import Terminals
- Figure 19: The growth in global LNG means that European gas and power
market fundamentals will increasingly be driven by the US market
- Figure 20: The LNG value chain is of growing relevance to the US power
sector as well as gas supply utilities
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