Table of Contents
- CHAPTER 1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
- Key findings
- Introduction to the PharmaVitae Company Universe
- Summary of analysis
- PharmaVitae universe overview
- Big Pharma overview
- Mid Pharma overview
- Biotech overview
- Japan Pharma overview
- The PharmaVitae universe will grow at a very modest 2005-11 CAGR of 4.9%
- Indication broadening in oncology and AIID provides a major opportunity
for driving growth and biologics are currently insulated against generic
competition
- Japan, Big and Mid Pharma are all entrenched in slow-growing disease
markets
- Biotech is the most biologics-focused peer set although Big Pharma
player Roche has accessed this valuable product set via the acquisition of
Genentech
- Indication broadening boosts sales growth from core marketed products
whereas generic competition drives down sales of expired products
- The financial benefit of Big Pharma scale - increased operating profit
margins
- Strategic options for Big Pharma and consequences for the other peer sets
- (1) Achieve operating cost efficiencies
- (2) M&A with another Big Pharma - more mega-mergers?
- (3) M&A with biotech - access oncology/AIID biologics
- (4) M&A with Mid Pharma - access promising CNS products
- (5) M&A with generics companies
- (6) M&A outside of pharma space
- Consequences for other peer sets
- The rest of this report
- CHAPTER 2 BIG PHARMA
- Key findings
- Big Pharma members
- Big Pharma members
- Big Pharma overview
- Big Pharma sales outlook
- Company sales performance, 2005-11
- Big Pharma sales performance, 2005-11
- Company growth rates, 2005-11
- Company change in annual sales, 2005-11
- Big Pharma launch/expiry analysis
- Company contributions from launches and expiries, 2005-11
- Company growth rates from launches and expiries, 2005-11
- Big Pharma contribution from launches and expiries, 2005-11
- Big Pharma therapeutic area analysis
- Company by therapeutic area sales, 2005
- Company by therapeutic area sales, 2005
- Company by therapeutic area sales, 2011
- Big Pharma dependency on top three therapy areas, 2005
- Big Pharma dependency on top three therapy areas, 2011
- Big Pharma dependency on top five, 10 and 20 products, 2005
- Big Pharma dependency on top five, 10 and 20 products, 2011
- Big Pharma molecule type analysis
- Big Pharma molecule type launch/core/expiry analysis
- Company by biologics dependency, 2005
- Company by biologics dependency, 2011
- Big Pharma growth rate by molecule type
- Big Pharma financial performance analysis
- Company total revenues vs. ethical revenues
- Company total revenues, 2002-06e
- Company R&D operating expense ratio analysis, 2002-06e
- Company COGS operating expense ratio analysis, 2002-06e
- Company S,G&A operating expense ratio analysis, 2002-06e
- Company EBIT margin analysis, 2002-06e
- CHAPTER 3 MID PHARMA
- Key findings
- Mid Pharma overview
- Mid Pharma members
- Mid Pharma overview
- Mid Pharma sales outlook
- Company sales performance, 2005-11
- Mid Pharma sales performance, 2005-11
- Company growth rates, 2005-11
- Company change in annual sales, 2005-11
- Mid Pharma launch/expiry analysis
- Company contributions from launches and expiries, 2005-11
- Company growth rates from launches and expiries, 2005-11
- Mid Pharma contribution from launches and expiries, 2005-11
- Mid Pharma therapeutic area analysis
- Company by therapeutic area sales, 2005
- Company by therapeutic area sales, 2011
- Mid Pharma molecule type analysis
- Company by biologics dependency, 2005
- Company by biologics dependency, 2011
- Mid Pharma financial performance analysis
- Company total revenues vs. ethical revenues
- Company total revenues, 2002-06e
- Company R&D operating expense ratio analysis, 2002-06e
- Company COGS operating expense ratio analysis, 2002-06e
- Company S,G&A operating expense ratio analysis, 2002-06e
- Company EBIT margin analysis, 2002-06e
- CHAPTER 4 BIOTECH
- Key findings
- Biotech overview
- Biotech members
- Biotech overview
- Biotech sales outlook
- Company sales performance, 2005-11
- Biotech sales performance, 2005-11
- Company growth rates, 2005-11
- Company change in annual sales, 2005-11
- Biotech launch/expiry analysis
- Company contributions from launches and expiries, 2005-11
- Company growth rates from launches and expiries, 2005-11
- Biotech contribution from launches and expiries, 2005-11
- Biotech therapeutic area analysis
- Company by therapeutic area sales, 2005
- Company by therapeutic area sales, 2011
- Biotech molecule type analysis
- Company by biologics dependency, 2005
- Company by biologics dependency, 2011
- Biotech financial performance analysis
- Company total revenues vs. ethical revenues
- Company total revenues, 2002-06e
- Company operating expense ratio analysis, 2002-06e
- EBIT margin analysis, 2002-06e
- CHAPTER 5 JAPAN PHARMA
- Key findings
- Japan Pharma overview
- Japan Pharma members
- Japan Pharma overview
- Japan Pharma sales outlook
- Company sales performance, 2005-11
- Japan Pharma sales performance, 2005-11
- Company growth rates, 2005-11
- Company change in annual sales, 2005-11
- Japan Pharma launch/expiry analysis
- Company contributions from launches and expiries, 2005-11
- Company growth rates from launches and expiries, 2005-11
- Japan Pharma contribution from launches and expiries, 2005-11
- Japan Pharma therapeutic area analysis
- Company by therapeutic area sales, 2005
- Company by therapeutic area sales, 2011
- Japan Pharma molecule type analysis
- Company by biologics dependency, 2005
- Company by biologics dependency, 2011
- Japan Pharma financial performance analysis
- Company total revenues vs. ethical revenues
- Company total revenues, 2002-06e
- Company operating expense ratio analysis, 2002-06e
- EBIT margin analysis, 2002-06e
- CHAPTER 6 APPENDIX
- References
- Exchange rates
- List of Tables
- Table 1: Big Pharma members
- Table 2: Mid Pharma members
- Table 3: Biotech members
- Table 4: Japan Pharma members
- Table 5: Therapy area abbreviations (used throughout report)
- Table 6: Summary of analysis
- Table 7: Big Pharma members
- Table 8: Big Pharma ethical sales forecasts ($m), 2005-11
- Table 9: Company contributions from launches and expiries, 2005-11
- Table 10: Company growth rates from launches and expiries, 2005-11
- Table 11: Big Pharma therapy area sales, 2005-11
- Table 12: Big Pharma therapy area launch/core/expiry analysis, 2005-11
- Table 13: Big Pharma dependency on top three therapy areas, 2005
- Table 14: Big Pharma dependency on top three therapy areas, 2011
- Table 15: Big Pharma top five products, 2005
- Table 16: Big Pharma top five products, 2011
- Table 17: Company contributions from launches and expiries, 2005-11
- Table 18: Big Pharma therapy area launch/core/expiry analysis, 2005-11
- Table 19: Mid Pharma members
- Table 20: Company contributions from launches and expiries ($m),
2005-11
- Table 21: Company growth rates from launches and expiries, 2005-11
- Table 22: Biotech members
- Table 23: Company contributions from launches and expiries ($m),
2005-11
- Table 24: Company growth rates from launches and expiries, 2005-11
- Table 25: Japan Pharma members
- Table 26: Company contributions from launches and expiries ($m),
2005-11
- Table 27: Company growth rates from launches and expiries, 2005-11
- Table 28: Exchange rates, 2005
- List of Figures
- Figure 1: PharmaVitae universe overview, share of 2005 and 2011 sales
(%)
- Figure 2: Big Pharma overview, share of 2005 and 2011 sales (%)
- Figure 3: Mid Pharma overview, share of 2005 and 2011 sales (%)
- Figure 4: Biotech overview, share of 2005 and 2011 sales (%)
- Figure 5: Japan Pharma overview, share of 2005 and 2011 sales (%)
- Figure 6: PharmaVitae universe sales ($m), 2005-11
- Figure 7: Therapy area x product attractiveness landscape
- Figure 8: Therapy area x product landscape: PFE, ROG and DNA
- Figure 9: Peer set therapeutic area focus, 2005
- Figure 10: Peer set therapy area growth rates (% CAGR), 2005-11
- Figure 11: Peer set launch/core/expiry analysis, total growth rate
over the six years between 2005-11 (%)
- Figure 12: Peer set EBIT/total revenues, 2006e
- Figure 13: Strategic options for Big Pharma
- Figure 14: Big Pharma overview, share of 2005 and 2011 sales (%)
- Figure 15: Company sales performance ($m), 2005-11
- Figure 16: Big Pharma sales performance, 2005-11
- Figure 17: Company growth rates (% CAGR), 2005-11
- Figure 18: Company change in annual sales ($m), 2005-11
- Figure 19: GlaxoSmithKline' s launch portfolio, sales ($m), 2005-11
- Figure 20: GlaxoSmithKline' s expiry portfolio, sales ($m), 2005-11
- Figure 21: GlaxoSmithKline' s core portfolio, sales ($m), 2005-11
- Figure 22: GlaxoSmithKline launch/core/expiry analysis, absolute
growth ($m), 2005-11
- Figure 23: Company growth rates from launches and expiries, 2005-11
- Figure 24: Big Pharma contribution from launches and expiries ($m),
2005-11
- Figure 25: Company by therapeutic area sales, 2005
- Figure 26: Company by therapeutic area sales, 2005
- Figure 27: Company by therapy area sales, 2011
- Figure 28: Big Pharma therapy area focus vs. growth rate
- Figure 29: Big Pharma dependency on top three therapy areas (% of
total ethical sales), 2005
- Figure 30: Big Pharma dependency on top three therapy areas (% of
total ethical sales), 2011
- Figure 31: Big Pharma dependency on top five, 10 and 20 products(% of
total ethical sales), 2005
- Figure 32: Big Pharma dependency on top five, 10 and 20 products (% of
total ethical sales), 2011
- Figure 33: Big Pharma launch/core/expiry by product type (% 2005
sales), 2005-11
- Figure 34: Company by biologics dependency (% total ethical sales),
2005
- Figure 35: Company by biologics dependency (% total ethical sales),
2011
- Figure 36: Big Pharma growth rate by molecule type (% CAGR), 2005-11
- Figure 37: Company total revenues vs. ethical revenues ($m), 2005
- Figure 38: Company total revenues ($m), 2002-06e
- Figure 39: Company R&D operating expense ratio analysis (% total
revenues), 2002-06e
- Figure 40: Company COGS operating expense ratio analysis (% total
revenues), 2002-06e
- Figure 41: Company S,G&A operating expense ratio analysis (% total
revenues), 2002-06e
- Figure 42: Company EBIT margin analysis, 2002-06e
- Figure 43: Big Pharma EBIT vs. total revenues ($m), 2006e
- Figure 44: Mid Pharma overview, share of 2005 and 2011 sales (%)
- Figure 45: Company sales performance ($m), 2005-11
- Figure 46: Mid Pharma sales performance ($m), 2005-11
- Figure 47: Company growth rates (% CAGR), 2005-11
- Figure 48: Company change in annual sales ($m), 2005-11
- Figure 49: Company growth rates from launches and expiries, 2005-11
- Figure 50: Mid Pharma contribution from launches and expiries ($m),
2005-11
- Figure 51: Company by therapeutic area sales, 2005
- Figure 52: Company by therapeutic area sales, 2011
- Figure 53: Company by biologics dependency (% total ethical sales),
2005
- Figure 54: Company by biologics dependency (% total ethical sales),
2011
- Figure 55: Company total revenues vs. ethical revenues ($m)
- Figure 56: Company total revenues ($m), 2002-06e
- Figure 57: Company R&D operating expense ratio analysis (% total
revenues), 2002-06e
- Figure 58: Company COGS operating expense ratio analysis (% total
revenues), 2002-06e
- Figure 59: Company S,G&A operating expense ratio analysis (% total
revenues), 2002-06e
- Figure 60: Company EBIT margin analysis, 2002-06e
- Figure 61: Mid Pharma EBIT vs. total revenues ($m), 2006e
- Figure 62: Biotech overview, share of 2005 and 2011 sales (%)
- Figure 63: Company sales performance ($m), 2005-11
- Figure 64: Biotech sales performance ($m), 2005-11
- Figure 65: Company growth rates (CAGR %), 2005-11
- Figure 66: Company change in annual sales ($m), 2005-11
- Figure 67: Company growth rates from launches and expiries, 2005-11
- Figure 68: Biotech contribution from launches and expiries ($m),
2005-11
- Figure 69: Company by therapeutic area sales, 2005
- Figure 70: Company by therapeutic area sales, 2011
- Figure 71: Company by biologics dependency (% total ethical sales),
2005
- Figure 72: Company by biologics dependency (% total ethical sales),
2011
- Figure 73: Company total revenues vs. ethical revenues ($m)
- Figure 74: Company total revenues ($m), 2002-06e
- Figure 75: Company operating cost analysis (% total revenues), 2002-06e
- Figure 76: Company EBIT/total revenues, 2002-06e
- Figure 77: Japan Pharma overview, share of 2005 and 2011 sales (%)
- Figure 78: Company sales performance ($m), 2005-11
- Figure 79: Japan Pharma sales performance ($m), 2005-11
- Figure 80: Company growth rates (% CAGR), 2005-11
- Figure 81: Company change in annual sales ($m), 2005-11
- Figure 82: Company growth rates from launches and expiries, 2005-11
- Figure 83: Japan Pharma contribution from launches and expiries ($m),
2005-11
- Figure 84: Company by therapeutic area sales, 2005
- Figure 85: Company by therapeutic area sales, 2011
- Figure 86: Company by biologics dependency (% total ethical sales),
2005
- Figure 87: Company by biologics dependency (% total ethical sales),
2011
- Figure 88: Company total revenues vs. ethical revenues ($m)
- Figure 89: Company total revenues ($m), 2002-06e
- Figure 90: Company operating cost analysis (% total revenues), 2002-06e
- Figure 91: Company EBIT vs. total revenues, 2002-06e
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