UK Retail Futures 2012: Sector Summary

Table of Contents

CHAPTER 1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

• Key Findings
• Main Conclusions

CHAPTER 2 FORECAST SUMMARY

• Consumer Spending
• Specialists Sales
• Space
• Sales Densities
• Sectors

CHAPTER 3 UK ECONOMIC FORECASTS

• Key Messages
• Gross Domestic Product - GDP
• How does it affect retail?
• What' s happened?
• What will happen?
• Earnings Growth
• How does it affect retail?
• What' s happened?
• What will happen?
• Real Household Disposable Income
• How does it affect retail?
• What' s happened?
• What will happen?
• Employment
• How does it affect retail?
• What' s happened?
• What will happen?
• Inflation
• How does it affect retail?
• What' s happened?
• What will happen?
• Exchange Rates
• How do they affect retail?
• What' s happened?
• What will happen?
• Interest Rates
• How do they affect retail?
• What' s happened?
• What will happen?
• Savings Ratio
• How does it affect retail?
• What' s happened?
• What will happen?
• Consumer Debt
• How does it affect retail?
• What' s happened?
• What will happen?
• Equities
• How does it affect retail?
• What' s happened?
• What will happen?
• House Price Inflation
• How does it affect retail?
• What' s happened?
• What will happen?
• Housing Equity Withdrawal
• How does it affect retail?
• What' s happened?
• What will happen?
• Housing Transactions
• How does it affect retail?
• What' s happened?
• What will happen?

CHAPTER 4 UK RETAILING FORECASTS

• Key Indicators
• Retail Expenditure 1997-2012
• Sales by Location 2007-2012
• Sources of Growth 1997-2012
• Store Numbers by Location 1997-2012
• Space by Location 1997-2012
• Sales Density by Location 1997-2012
• Average Store Size 1997-2012
• Average Store Sales 1997-2012
• Online Retail Spending

CHAPTER 5 SECTOR ANALYSIS

• Introduction
• Books, News & Stationery
• Forecast Summary
• Books
• Newspapers and Magazines
• Greeting Cards and Stationery
• Channels of Distribution
• Specialists Retail Sales
• Consumer Spending
• Catalogue Retailers
• Forecast Summary
• Channels of Distribution
• Specialists Retail Sales
• Clothing & Footwear
• Forecast Summary
• Channels of Distribution
• Clothing Specialists Retail Sales
• Footwear Specialists Retail Sales
• Consumer Spending
• DIY & Gardening
• Forecast Summary
• Channels of Distribution
• Specialists Retail Sales
• Consumer Spending
• Electricals
• Forecast Summary
• Channels of Distribution
• Specialists Retail Sales
• Consumer Spending
• Food & Grocery
• Forecast Summary
• Channels of Distribution
• Specialists Retail Sales
• Consumer Spending
• Furniture & Floorcoverings
• Forecast Summary
• Channels of Distribution
• Specialists Retail Sales
• Consumer Spending
• Health & Beauty
• Forecast Summary
• Channels of Distribution
• Specialists Retail Sales
• Consumer Spending
• Homewares
• orecast Summary
• Channels of Distribution
• Consumer Spending
• Music & Video
• Music & Video
• Forecast Summary
• Channels of Distribution
• Channels of Distribution
• Specialists Retail Sales
• Consumer Spending

CHAPTER 6 MARKET DEFINITIONS

• Books, News & Stationery
• Catalogue Retailers
• Clothing & Footwear
• DIY & Gardening
• Electricals
• Food & Grocery
• Furniture & Floorcoverings
• Health & Beauty
• Homewares
• Music & Video

CHAPTER 7 GLOSSARY

• Terminology
• Location Definitions
• Town Centre
• Out-of-town
• Neighbourhood
• Non-store Retail
• Forecasting Methodology
• Abbreviations

List of Tables

• Table 1: Sector forecast summaries 2007-2012
• Table 2: Economic drivers for retail 2008
• Table 3: Measures of inflation 2008
• Table 4: UK retailing forecasts summary 2007-2012
• Table 5: Forecast chronology 2008-2012
• Table 6: Total consumer retail expenditure 1997-2012
• Table 7: Sales by location 1997-2012
• Table 8: Total UK physical store sales & selling space 1997-2012
• Table 9: Sources of sales growth for physical stores 1997-2012
• Table 10: Store numbers 1997-2012
• Table 11: Space by location 1997-2012
• Table 12: Sales densities by location at current prices 1997-2012
• Table 13: Average store size by location 1997-2012
• Table 14: Average sales per store by location at current prices 1997-2012
• Table 15: Sector analysis features 1997-2012
• Table 16: Books, news & stationery key numbers 1997, 2002, 2007 and 2012
• Table 17: Books, news & stationery key growth rates 1997-02, 2002-07 and 2007-12
• Table 18: Books, news & stationery specialists sales 1997-2012
• Table 19: Sources of growth for books, news & stationery specialists 1997-2012
• Table 20: Total books, news & stationery expenditure 1997-2012
• Table 21: Books, news & stationery expenditure analysis 2007-2012
• Table 22: Catalogue retailers summary 1997, 2002, 2007 and 2012
• Table 23: Catalogue retailers sales 1997-2012
• Table 24: Clothing & footwear expenditure summary 2002, 2007 & 2012
• Table 25: Clothing summary 2002, 2007 & 2012
• Table 26: Footwear summary 2002, 2007 & 2012
• Table 27: Clothing specialists sales 1997-2012
• Table 28: Sources of growth for clothing specialists 1997-2012
• Table 29: Footwear specialists sales 1997-2012
• Table 30: Sources of growth for footwear specialists 1997-2012
• Table 31: Total clothing & footwear expenditure 1997-2012
• Table 32: Clothing & footwear expenditure analysis 2007-2012
• Table 33: DIY & gardening expenditure summary 1997, 2002, 2007 and 2012
• Table 34: DIY specialists summary 2002, 2007 and 2012
• Table 35: DIY specialists sales 1997-2012
• Table 36: Sources of growth for UK DIY specialists 1997-2012
• Table 37: Total DIY & gardening expenditure 1997-2012
• Table 38: DIY expenditure analysis 2007-2012
• Table 39: Gardening expenditure analysis 2007-2012
• Table 40: Electricals expenditure summary 2002, 2007 & 2012
• Table 41: Electricals specialists summary 2002, 2007 and 2012
• Table 42: Electricals specialists sales 1997-2012
• Table 43: Sources of growth for UK electricals specialists 1997-2012
• Table 44: Total electricals expenditure 1997-2012
• Table 45: Brown goods expenditure analysis 2007-2012
• Table 46: White goods expenditure analysis 2007-2012
• Table 47: Grey goods expenditure analysis 2007-2012
• Table 48: Food & grocery key numbers 1997, 2002, 2007 & 2012
• Table 49: All food & grocery specialists sales 1997-2012
• Table 50: Sources of growth for UK food & grocery retailers 1997-2012
• Table 51: Total food & grocery consumer expenditure 1997-2012
• Table 52: Food expenditure analysis 2007-2012
• Table 53: Alcoholic drinks & soft drinks expenditure analysis 2007-2012
• Table 54: Tobacco & non-durable household goods expenditure analysis 2007-2012
• Table 55: Furniture & floorcoverings expenditure summary 1997, 2002, 2007 and 2012e
• Table 56: Furniture & floorcoverings specialists summaries 2002, 2007 and 2012e
• Table 57: Furniture & floorcoverings specialists sales 1997-2007 and forecast to 2012
• Table 58: Sources of growth for UK furniture & floorcoverings specialists 1997-2007 and forecast to 2012
• Table 59: Total furniture & floorcoverings expenditure 1997-2012e
• Table 60: Furniture expenditure analysis 2007-2012
• Table 61: Floorcoverings expenditure analysis 2007-2012
• Table 62: Health & beauty summary data - expenditure 2002, 2007 & 2012
• Table 63: Health & beauty summary data - specialists sales, space and stores 2002, 2007 & 2012
• Table 64: All sales through health & beauty specialists 1997-2012
• Table 65: Sources of growth for health & beauty specialists 1997-2012
• Table 66: Total health & beauty expenditure 1997-2012
• Table 67: Health & beauty category analysis 2007-2012
• Table 68: Homewares expenditure summary 1997, 2002, 2007 and 2012e
• Table 69: Total homewares expenditure 1997-2012e
• Table 70: Homewares expenditure analysis 2007-2012
• Table 71: Music & video key numbers 1997, 2002, 2007 and 2012
• Table 72: Music & video key growth rates 1997-02, 2002-07 and 2007-12
• Table 73: Music & video specialists sales 1997-2012
• Table 74: Sources of growth for music & video specialists 1997-2012
• Table 75: Total music & video expenditure 1997-2012
• Table 76: Music & video expenditure analysis 2007-2012
• Table 77: Books, news & stationery market definition 2008
• Table 78: Catalogue retailers market definition 2008
• Table 79: Clothing & footwear market definition 2008
• Table 80: DIY & gardening market definition 2008
• Table 81: Electricals market definition 2008
• Table 82: Food & grocery market definition 2008
• Table 83: Furniture & floorcoverings market definition 2008
• Table 84: Health & beauty market definition 2008
• Table 85: Homewares market definition 2008
• Table 86: Music & video market definition 2008

List of Figures

• Figure 1: Consumer expenditure growth 2002-2007 and 2007-2012
• Figure 2: Specialists sales growth 2002-2007 and 2007-2012
• Figure 3: Specialists space growth 2002-2007 and 2007-2012
• Figure 4: Sales density growth (current prices) 2002-2007 and 2007-2012
• Figure 5: Real gross domestic product (GDP) at constant (2003) prices 1997-2007 and forecast to 2012
• Figure 6: Inflation vs average earnings growth 1997-2007 and forecast to 2012
• Figure 7: Tax & Prices vs Average Earnings 1997-2007 and forecast to 2012
• Figure 8: Real household disposable income at constant (2003) prices 1997-2007 and forecast to 2012
• Figure 9: UK employment 1997-2007 and forecast to 2012
• Figure 10: UK unemployment 1997-2007 and forecast to 2012
• Figure 11: Inflation rates Y-o-Y 1997-2007 and forecast to 2012
• Figure 12: Sterling, dollar and euro exchange rates 1997-2007 and forecast to 2012
• Figure 13: UK average base rates 1997-2007 and forecast by quarter for 2008
• Figure 14: UK average base rates 1997-2007 and forecast to 2012
• Figure 15: Savings ratio 1997-2007 and forecast to 2012
• Figure 16: Growth in consumer debt 1997-2007 and forecast to 2012
• Figure 17: FTSE 100 Index 1997-2007 and forecast to 2012
• Figure 18: UK house price inflation 1997-2007 and forecast to 2012
• Figure 19: Housing Equity Withdrawal (England & Wales) 1996-2007 and forecast to 2012
• Figure 20: Housing transactions (England & Wales) 1997-2007 and forecast to 2012
• Figure 21: Retail spending value, volume and inflation/deflation trends 1997-2007 and forecast to 2012
• Figure 22: Retail spending as percentage of total consumer spending 1997-2007 and forecast to 2012
• Figure 23: Consumer, retail and non-retail spending trends % 1997-2007 and forecast to 2012
• Figure 24: Retail sales by location 2007 and 2012
• Figure 25: Share of turnover by location 1997, 2002, 2007 & 2012
• Figure 26: % share of store numbers by location 1997, 2002, 2007 & 2012
• Figure 27: % share of space by location 1997, 2002, 2007 & 2012
• Figure 28: Online retail spending 1997-2012
• Figure 29: Books, news & stationery channels of distribution 2006, 2007 & 2012
• Figure 30: Catalogue retailers channels of distribution 2006, 2007 & 2012
• Figure 31: Forecast changes in shares of major channels in the catalogue retailing market 2012 on 2007
• Figure 32: Clothing & footwear channels of distribution 2006, 2007 & 2012
• Figure 33: Changes in shares of clothing & footwear market 2012 on 2007
• Figure 34: DIY & gardening channels of distribution 2006, 2007 & 2012
• Figure 35: Changes in shares of major channels in the DIY & gardening market 2012 on 2007
• Figure 36: Electricals channels of distribution 2006, 2007 & 2012
• Figure 37: Forecast changes in shares of major channels in the electricals market 2012 on 2007
• Figure 38: Food & grocery category growth prospects 2006, 2007 & 2012
• Figure 39: Food & grocery channels of distribution 2006, 2007 & 2012
• Figure 40: Channels of distribution - furniture 2006, 2007 & 2012e
• Figure 41: Changes in shares of major channels in the furniture market 2012e on 2007
• Figure 42: Channels of distribution - floorcoverings 2006, 2007 & 2012
• Figure 43: Changes in shares of major channels in the floorcoverings market 2012e on 2007
• Figure 44: Health & beauty channels of distribution 2006, 2007 and 2012e
• Figure 45: Changes in shares of health & beauty market 2012e on 2007
• Figure 46: Homewares channels of distribution 2006, 2007 and 2012
• Figure 47: Forecast changes in shares of homewares market major channels 2012e on 2007
• Figure 48: Music & video channels of distribution 2006, 2007 & 2012
• Figure 49: Changes in shares of major channels in the music & video market 2012 on 2007
• Figure 50: Verdict forecasting methodology 2008