Table of Contents
- DATAMONITOR VIEW
- ANALYSIS
- A number of structural factors are required to catalyze the development
of wholesale gas markets:
- The development of wholesale markets tends to follow a preset pattern
of distinct stage
- The wholesale market development cycle gradually builds up enough
momentum to spawn the creation of wholesale support services
- Once sufficient structural factors are in place, the necessary support
services required for wholesale market development beg into emerge
- The market based factors supporting hub development are crucial
elements in facilitating and developing traded markets
- Wholesale gas markets are required by different players throughout the
value chain for different reasons
- Currently Europe' s wholesale gas markets cover the full range of
developmental stages
- Analysis of levels of churn provide an insight into levels of liquidity
and wholesale market development
- Current levels of churn in individual wholesale markets varies
significantly
- Datamonitor segments wholesale maturity and liquidity into 4 distinct
categories
- Nascent
- Emerging
- Established
- Mature
- Europe' s current wholesale gas markets cover the full spectrum of
segmentations
- The NBP has shown strong and consistent growth to become Europe' s
leading wholesale gas market
- Zeebrugge and the TTF maintain their role in the established segment of
wholesale development, behind the NBP
- Europe' s emerging wholesale gas markets are seeing continued expansion
in both volumes and liquidity
- Europe' s nascent markets are seeing renewed impet us towards development
- Price efficiency levels in the European wholesale markets show varying
ranges of volatility
- Datamonitor' s Deviation Days Index measures price movement ranges and
gives insight into levels of price efficiency
- Levels of volatility in the established markets have been markedly
decreasing
- The immaturity and lack of liquidity in the emerging markets means that
their levels of price efficiency lag far behind the NBP
- The polarization of the markets will reduce in the wake of market opening
- Datamonitor forecasts future levels of wholesale liquidity by examining
a range of structural factors on a weighted average basis
- The structural factors used to predict wholesale market development
produce a sliding scale of scores
- Wholesale market development potential varies widely across the EU 27
gas markets
- The markets in the limited progress segmentation currently lack the
necessary structural factors required to catalyze wholesale activity
- Despite showing some degree of progress over the forecast period,
markets in the discernable progress segment will remain undeveloped
- In addition to the three established markets, there are six countries
in the substantial progress segment
- APPENDIX
- Summary of Scores
- Scoring methodology for Structural Factors used to rate markets
- The "Impetus" metric examines the progress already made, and
being made, towards the establishment of a wholesale market
- The "Gas Penetration" metric examines the degree to which gas
has made an impact to the energy mix of a specific country
- The "Future Role of Gas Fired Power" metric has been used
because gas fired power generators are often significant wholesale gas
market users
- The "Demand Growth" metric is used because demand growth can,
in itself, be a key catalyst to wholesale activity
- The "Wholesale Market Fragmentation" metric gives an
indication of the potential impact on liquidity of upstream supplies and
gas imports
- The "Retail Market Fragmentation" metric provides insight on
the impact on wholesale development of retail market players needing to
source gas
- The "Interconnectivity" metric is used to highlight current
and future opportunities for wholesale liquidity to be drive by
cross-border trading
- Ask the analyst
- Datamonitor consulting
- Disclaimer
- List of Tables
- Table 1: Detailed breakdown of scores
- List of Figures
- Figure 1: The five distinct stages of wholesale market progression
- Figure 2: Wholesale support services emerge as the cycle builds momentum
- Figure 3: The interaction between structural and support factors creates
a ' snowball' effect
- Figure 4: The key support elements to wholesale market growth
- Figure 5: Different players engage in wholesale trading for different
reasons
- Figure 6: Europe' s newer, less well developed, market slag far behind the
older markets in terms of churn ratios
- Figure 7: Market development in Europe
- Figure 8: The NBP remains Europe' s most liquid traded wholesale market
- Figure 9: Both the TTF and Zeebrugge have high levels of liquidity and
churn rates
- Figure 10: Levels of liquidity and churn rates in the emerging wholesale
markets show a high degree of diversity
- Figure 11: Levels of price movement deviation from the NBP have been
decreasing in the TTF and Zeebrugge markets in the past year
- Figure 12: The emerging markets clearly lack the levels of volatility and
price efficiency seen at the NBP
- Figure 13: Structural factors used by Datamonitor to determine wholesale
liquidity
- Figure 14: Wholesale Market Development Potential Scale
- Figure 14: Wholesale market development potential(increasing left to
right)
- Figure 16: Scoring scale
- Figure 17: Scoring scale
- Figure 18: Scoring scale
- Figure 19: Scoring scale
- Figure 20: Scoring scale
- Figure 21: Scoring scale
- Figure 22: Scoring scale
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