Table of Contents
- DATAMONITOR VIEW
- ANALYSIS
- A number of structural factors are required to catalyze the development
of wholesale power markets
- The development of wholesale markets tends to follow a preset pattern
of distinct stages
- The wholesale market development cycle gradually builds up enough
momentum to spawn the creation of wholesale support services
- Once sufficient structural factors are in place, the necessary support
services required for wholesale market development begin to emerge
- The market-based factors supporting hub development are crucial
elements in facilitating and developing traded markets
- Wholesale power markets are required by different players throughout
the value chain for different reasons
- There are three distinct stages to wholesale market development
- Currently, Europe' s wholesale power markets cover the full range of
developmental stages
- Europe' s wholesale power markets remain at a widely different stages of
development
- Despite often having closed market dynamics in common,nascent and
emerging markets differ in terms of cross-border trading
- Nascent markets
- Emerging markets
- Europe' s established wholesale markets are a result of ongoing
liberalization and availability of supply
- Price efficiency levels in the European wholesale markets show varying
ranges of volatility
- Absolute prices show significant variation, despite following similar
trend patterns
- Price volatility in all markets has been strong
- Datamonitor' s Deviation Days Index measures price movement ranges and
gives insight into levels of price efficiency
- Levels of price volatility in the established markets have been
consistently lower than the Nord Pool
- The wholesale markets in Europe have only achieved 80% of the DDI of
the Nord Pool
- The polarization of the markets will reduce in the wake of market opening
- Europe' s power markets vary considerably in size and generation mix,
which can often impact wholesale market dynamics
- The established Nord Pool markets are much more reliant on hydropower
generation than the EU 27 markets
- The propensity for development of a wholesale market can be established
from current structural factors
- Datamonitor examines the following factors to assess wholesale market
development potential by 2012:-
- Datamonitor uses a sliding scale to assess the development in wholesale
trading markets
- Datamonitor' s scoring matrix shows a broad range of development
potential across the EU
- Established markets are distributed throughout Europe
- Seven markets are forecast to show particularly significant movement
over the forecast period
- Six markets are forecast to advance significantly over the forecast
period, and one is forecast to decline
- The projected key movements of markets in Europe by 2012 are:
- APPENDIX
- The criteria for scoring and the weighting assigned to them are:
- ' Current status' accounts for 10% of the overall score
- ' Per capita B2C volume' accounts for 15% of the overall score
- ' Per capita B2B volume' accounts for 15% of the overall score
- ' CAGR demand of wholesale electricity market' accounts for 10% of the
overall score
- ' Wholesale fragmentation' accounts for 25% of the overall score
- ' Retail fragmentation' accounts for 20% of the overall score
- ' Potential for interconnectivity' accounts for 5% of the overall score
- Flags of members of the European Union and the Nord Pool
- Ask the analyst
- Datamonitor consulting
- Disclaimer
- List of Figures
- Figure 1: The five distinct stages of wholesale market progression
- Figure 2: Wholesale support services emerge as the cycle builds momentum
- Figure 3: The interaction between structural and support factors creates
a ' snowball' effect
- Figure 4: The key support elements to wholesale market growth
- Figure 5: Different players engage in wholesale trading for different
reasons
- Figure 6: The three stages of market development
- Figure 7: Depiction of the current status of Europe' s wholesale
electricity markets
- Figure 8: European wholesale power market prices
- Figure 9: Despite brief periods of greater price efficiency, the other
markets tend to show a DDI of approximately 80% of the Nord Pool
- Figure 10: EU power generated volume by type:
- Figure 11: The Nord Pool power generated volume by type compared with EU
27 average
- Figure 12: Wholesale market development assessment scale
- Figure 13: Europe' s markets in descending order of development
- Figure 14: Heat map showing wholesale power market development in Europe
- Figure 15: Projected movement of markets by 2012
- Figure 16: Scoring scale
- Figure 17: Scoring scale
- Figure 18: Scoring scale
- Figure 19: Scoring scale
- Figure 20: Scoring scale
- Figure 21: Scoring scale
- Figure 22: Scoring scale
- Figure 23: National Flags of countries in the report
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