Table of Contents
- ABOUT DATAMONITOR HEALTHCARE
- About the Infectious Disease and Respiratory (ID&R) pharmaceutical
analysis team
- CHAPTER 1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
- Strategic scoping and focus
- Datamonitor insight into the disease market
- Contributing experts
- Related reports
- CHAPTER 2 MARKET DEFINITION AND OVERVIEW
- Market definition for this report
- Indication sales split
- Current seven major market assessment
- The asthma/COPD market totaled almost $20 billion in 2007
- Advair/Seretide tops the market with sales of $5.8 billion
- Short-acting beta2-agonist (SABA) class reached highest number of
standard units sold
- The US was the largest market with most rapid growth between 2003 and
2007
- Future seven major market assessment
- Comparison with previous forecast
- Datamonitor expects the asthma/COPD market to reach sales of almost
$25 billion
- Novartis/Schering-Plough' s once-daily ICS/LABA product predicted to be
best-selling product
- Short-acting beta2-agonist (SABA) class will continue selling highest
number of standard units
- Market growth in most countries to slow down, except in Japan
- Rest of the World snapshot
- Rest of the world sales account for one-fifth of the respiratory market
- Advair/Seretide also best-selling product in small and emerging
markets with sales of almost $1.3 billion
- CHAPTER 3 BRAND DYNAMICS
- Launch of generics continue to be difficult across the respiratory market
- Nebulized drugs represent a small share of the overall respiratory market
- Nebulized corticosteroids
- Nebulized bronchodilators
- Nebulized short-acting bronchodilator combinations
- ICS/LABA combinations
- Combination patents are under fire
- LABA safety issues to threaten ICS/LABA combinations?
- Advair/Seretide (fluticasone/salmeterol)
- COPD indications are gained and expanded
- Forecast assumptions for Advair/Seretide (7MM)
- Symbicort (budesonide/formoterol)
- Symbicort faces an uphill struggle in the US
- Forecast assumptions for Symbicort (7MM)
- Foster (beclometasone/formoterol)
- Forecast assumptions for Foster (Europe only)
- Overview of once-daily ICS/LABA combination products
- GlaxoSmithKline and Novartis/Schering-Plough' s race to launch the
first once-daily ICS/LABA combination product
- QMF149 (mometasone/indacaterol)
- Forecast assumptions for QMF149 (7MM)
- Beyond Advair (fluticasone furoate/642444)
- Forecast assumptions for Beyond Advair (7MM)
- Overview of me-too ICS/LABA combination products
- Two me-too ICS/LABA combination products are coming close to
regulatory filing
- Flutiform (fluticasone/formoterol)
- Forecast assumptions for Flutiform (7MM)
- MFF258 (mometasone/formoterol)
- Forecast assumptions for MFF258 (US and Europe only)
- Alvesco combo (ciclesonide/formoterol)
- Oral anti-inflammatories
- Singulair (montelukast)
- Multiple setbacks for montelukast franchise
- Forecast assumptions for Singulair (7MM)
- Accolate (zafirlukast)
- Forecast assumptions for Accolate (7MM)
- Onon (pranlukast)
- Forecast assumptions for Onon (Japan only)
- Long-acting anticholinergics (LAMAs)
- Spiriva (tiotropium bromide)
- Spiriva Respimat has entered the market
- Forecast assumptions for Spiriva (7MM)
- Novel LAMA pipeline has not moved much since last forecast
- Forecast assumptions for aclidinium bromide (US and Europe only)
- Forecast assumptions for glycopyrrolate (7MM)
- Inhaled corticosteroids (ICS)
- Traditional inhaled corticosteroids
- Forecast assumptions for Flixotide/Flovent (7MM)
- Forecast assumptions for all beclometasone-based products and Azmacort
(7MM)
- New once-daily corticosteroids
- Alvesco and Asmanex' s battle over the once-daily ICS market
- Forecast assumptions for Alvesco (7MM)
- Asmanex (mometasone)
- Forecast assumptions for Asmanex (7MM)
- Nebulized corticosteroids
- Pulmicort Respules (budesonide)
- Success of Pulmicort Respules under threat
- Forecast assumptions for Pulmicort Respules (nebulized) (7MM)
- Unit Dose Budesonide
- Forecast assumptions for Unit Dose Budesonide (UDB) (US only)
- Long-acting beta2-agonists (LABAs)
- Serevent (salmeterol) and Foradil (formoterol)
- Forecast assumptions for Foradil (US and Europe only)
- Once-daily LABA pipeline has not moved much since last forecast
- Forecast assumptions for indacaterol (7MM)
- Forecast assumptions for GlaxoSmithKline' s LABA (7MM)
- Forecast assumptions for carmoterol (Europe only)
- Nebulized LABA products
- Two nebulized LABA products were launched in 2007
- Brovana' s new Medicare billing code may give the drug an advantage in
the short term
- Forecast assumptions for Brovana (US only)
- Forecast assumptions for Perforomist (US only)
- Biologics
- Xolair (omalizumab)
- Forecast assumptions for Xolair (7MM)
- Short-acting bronchodilators (SABAs and SAMAs)
- Short-acting anticholinergics (SAMAs)
- Forecast assumptions for Atrovent (7MM)
- Short-acting beta2-agonists (SABAs)
- US CFC-HFA switch in full swing
- Forecast assumptions for (levo)salbutamol HFA products (US and Europe
only)
- Xopenex nebulized (levosalbutamol)
- Sales of nebulized Xopenex do not seem to be affected by launch of
nebulized LABAs so far
- Reduced Medicare reimbursement rate for Xopenex nebulized may impact
sales in the US
- Forecast assumptions for Xopenex nebulized (US only)
- Short-acting beta-2 agonist/short-acting anticholinergic (SABA/SAMA)
combinations
- Combivent (Ipratropium bromide/salbutamol)
- Forecast assumptions for Combivent and Duoneb (US and Europe only)
- Long-acting beta2-agonist/long-acting anticholinergic (LABA/LAMA)
combinations
- QVA149 (indacaterol/glycopyrrolate)
- Forecast assumptions for QVA149 (7MM)
- Bifunctional muscarinic antagonist and beta2-agonist (MABA)
- BIBLIOGRAPHY
- Articles
- Press releases
- Guidelines
- Datamonitor reports
- APPENDIX A - MARKET ASSUMPTIONS
- New product launches
- Patent expiries
- Data definitions, limitations and assumptions
- Standard units
- Japanese market data
- Derivation of sales forecasts and pricing trends
- Forecast methodology
- APPENDIX B
- Contributing experts
- Report methodology
- About Datamonitor
- About Datamonitor Healthcare
- About the Infectious Disease and Respiratory (ID&R) analysis team
- Disclaimer
- List of Tables
- Table 1: ATC classes included in the definition of the asthma/COPD market
- Table 2: Sales forecasts in asthma and COPD in the seven major markets
($m), 2007-2017
- Table 3: Sales of the respiratory market in small and emerging markets
in 2007 and CAGR, 2003-07
- Table 4: Comparison of leading branded drug sales ($m) for asthma and
COPD in the seven major markets and the small and emerging markets, 2007
- Table 5: Overview of the top three small and emerging markets for each
asthma/COPD-specific brand sales ($m), 2007
- Table 6: Sales forecast ($m) for Advair/Seretide for asthma and COPD in
the seven major markets, 2007-17
- Table 7: Sales forecast ($m) for Symbicort for asthma and COPD in the
seven major markets, 2007-17
- Table 8: Sales forecast ($m) for Foster for asthma and COPD in the seven
major markets, 2007-17
- Table 9: Key once-daily ICS/LABA combination products in late-stage
R&D pipeline for asthma/COPD, 2008
- Table 10: Sales forecast ($m) for QMF149 for asthma and COPD in the
seven major markets, 2007-2017
- Table 11: Sales forecast ($m) for Beyond Advair for asthma and COPD in
the seven major markets, 2013-17
- Table 12: Key me-too ICS/LABA combination products in late-stage R&D
pipeline for asthma/COPD, 2008
- Table 13: Sales forecast ($m) for Flutiform for asthma in the seven
major markets, 2007-2017
- Table 14: Sales forecast ($m) for MFF258 for asthma and COPD in the US
and 5EU, 2007-2017
- Table 15: Sales forecast ($m) for Singulair for asthma and COPD in the
seven major markets, 2007-17
- Table 16: Sales forecast ($m) for Accolate for asthma and COPD in the
seven major markets, 2007-17
- Table 17: Sales forecast ($m) for Onon for asthma and COPD in Japan,
2007-17
- Table 18: Sales forecast ($m) for Spiriva for asthma and COPD in the
seven major markets, 2007-17
- Table 19: Key LAMA products in the late-stage R&D pipeline for COPD,
2008
- Table 20: Sales forecast ($m) for aclidinium bromide for COPD in the US
and 5EU, 2007-17
- Table 21: Sales forecast ($m) for glycopyrrolate for COPD in the seven
major markets, 2007-17
- Table 22: Sales forecast ($m) for darotropium for COPD in the seven
major markets, 2007-17
- Table 23: Sales forecast ($m) for Pulmicort (inhaled) for asthma and
COPD in the seven major markets, 2007-17
- Table 24: Sales forecast ($m) for Flixotide/Flovent for asthma and COPD
in the seven major markets, 2007-17
- Table 25: Sales forecast ($m) for Becotide for asthma and COPD in the
5EU, 2007-17
- Table 26: Sales forecast ($m) for Beclazone for asthma and COPD in the
US and 5EU, 2007-17
- Table 27: Sales forecast ($m) for Qvar for asthma and COPD in Japan,
2007-17
- Table 28: Sales forecast ($m) for Azmacort for asthma and COPD in the
US, 2007-17
- Table 29: Sales forecast ($m) for Alvesco for asthma and COPD in the
seven major markets, 2007-17
- Table 30: Sales forecast ($m) for Asmanex for asthma and COPD in the
seven major markets, 2007-17
- Table 31: Sales forecast ($m) for Pulmicort Respules (nebulized) for
asthma and COPD in the seven major markets, 2007-17
- Table 32: Sales forecast ($m) for MAP Pharma' s unit dose budesonide for
asthma and COPD in the US, 2007-17
- Table 33: Sales forecast ($m) for Serevent for asthma and COPD in the
seven major markets, 2007-17
- Table 34: Sales forecast ($m) for Foradil for asthma and COPD in the
seven major markets, 2007-17
- Table 35: Key once-daily LABA products in late-stage R&D pipeline
for asthma/COPD, 2008
- Table 36: Sales forecast ($m) for indacaterol for COPD in the seven
major markets, 2007-17
- Table 37: Sales forecast ($m) for 642444 for COPD in the seven major
markets, 2007-17
- Table 38: Sales forecast ($m) for carmoterol for COPD in the 5EU, 2007-17
- Table 39: Sales forecast ($m) for Brovana for COPD in the US, 2007-17
- Table 40: Sales forecast ($m) for Perforomist for COPD in the US, 2007-17
- Table 41: Sales forecast ($m) for Xolair for asthma and COPD in the
seven major markets, 2007-17
- Table 42: Sales forecast ($m) for Atrovent for asthma and COPD in the
seven major markets, 2007-17
- Table 43: Price per standard unit (SU) for HFA salbutamol products in
the US, 2005-07
- Table 44: Sales forecast ($m) for ProAir/Salamol for asthma and COPD in
the US and 5EU, 2007-17
- Table 45: Sales forecast ($m) for Proventil for asthma and COPD in the
US, 2007-17
- Table 46: Sales forecast ($m) for Ventolin for asthma and COPD in the
seven major markets, 2007-17
- Table 47: Sales forecast ($m) for Xopenex (inhaled) for asthma and COPD
in the US, 2007-17
- Table 48: Sales forecast ($m) for Xopenex (nebulized) for asthma and
COPD in the US, 2007-17
- Table 49: Sales forecast ($m) for Combivent for asthma and COPD in the
US and 5EU, 2007-17
- Table 50: Sales forecast ($m) for Duoneb for asthma and COPD in the US,
2007-17
- Table 51: Key LABA/LAMA combination products in late-stage R&D
pipeline for COPD, 2008
- Table 52: Sales forecast ($m) for QVA149 for COPD in the seven major
markets, 2007-17
- Table 53: Datamonitor' s launch dates for asthma and COPD products in the
seven major markets, 2007-17
- Table 54: Generic entry dates for asthma and COPD products in the seven
major markets, 2007-17
- List of Figures
- Figure 1: Asthma/COPD-specific sales by class in the seven major markets
($ billions), 2003-07
- Figure 2: Asthma/COPD-specific volume per class in the seven major
markets (standard units, billions), 2003-07
- Figure 3: Asthma/COPD-specific sales by country in the seven major
markets, 2003-07
- Figure 4: Asthma/COPD-specific sales by class in the seven major markets
($ billions), 2007-17
- Figure 5: Asthma/COPD-specific volume per class in the seven major
markets (standard units, billions), 2007-17
- Figure 6: Asthma/COPD-specific sales by country in the seven major
markets, 2007-17
- Figure 7: Seven major markets versus rest of the world sales split for
the respiratory market, 2003 and 2007
- Figure 8: Indexed annual global sales of the respiratory market in small
and emerging markets, 2003-07
- Figure 9: Sales of the respiratory market by method of drug delivery, in
the US and 5EU, 2007
- Figure 10: Asthma/COPD-specific sales of nebulized inhaled
corticosteroids in the US and 5EU ($m), 2003-07
- Figure 11: Asthma/COPD-specific sales of nebulized bronchodilators in
the US and 5EU ($m), 2003-07
- Figure 12: Asthma/COPD-specific sales of nebulized short-acting
bronchodilator combinations in the US and 5EU ($m), 2003-07
- Figure 13: Asthma/COPD-specific sales of long-acting beta2-agonists in
the seven major markets by country ($m), 2003-07
- Figure 14: Overview of developments of Symbicort and Advair/Seretide in
2007-08
- Figure 15: Asthma/COPD-specific sales ($ billion) for Advair/Seretide
and Symbicort in the seven major markets, 2003-07
- Figure 16: Market share in terms of sales of Advair/Seretide, Symbicort
and Foster in the US and 5EU, 2003-07
- Figure 17: Overview of developments for Flutiform in 2007-08
- Figure 18: Asthma- and allergic rhinitis-specific sales ($ billions) for
Singulair in the seven major markets, 2003-07
- Figure 19: Asthma/COPD-specific sales ($m) for Spiriva HandiHaler and
Spiriva Respimat in Germany and the UK, 2003-07
- Figure 20: Asthma/COPD-specific sales ($m) for Berodual in Germany,
2003-07
- Figure 21: Asthma/COPD-specific sales ($m) for Pulmicort and
Flixotide/Flovent in the seven major markets, 2003-07
- Figure 22: Asthma/COPD-specific sales ($m) for Beclazone, Azmacort, Qvar
and Becotide in the seven major markets, 2003-07
- Figure 23: Asthma/COPD-specific sales ($m) for Alvesco and Asmanex in
the seven major markets, 2003-07
- Figure 24: Overview of developments regarding Pulmicort Respules' s
patent challenge by IVAX, 2005-07
- Figure 25: Asthma/COPD-specific sales ($m) for Serevent, Foradil and
generic formoterol in the seven major markets, 2003-07
- Figure 26: Asthma/COPD-specific sales ($m) for HFA and CFC containing
short-acting beta2-agonists in the US, 2003-07
- Figure 27: Asthma/COPD-specific sales ($m) for Xopenex, Perforomist and
Brovana in the US, 2003-07
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