Table of Contents
- ABOUT DATAMONITOR HEALTHCARE
- About the Infectious Diseases analysis team
- CHAPTER 1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
- Objective of the analysis
- Scope of the analysis
- Datamonitor insight into the vaccines market for adults and elderly
- Contributing experts
- Related reports
- Upcoming related reports
- CHAPTER 2 VACCINES FOR ADULTS AND ELDERLY - MARKET OVERVIEW
- Adult vaccines - the next blockbusters?
- Currently recommended vaccines
- Routine vaccinations
- Booster vaccinations for adults and elderly
- Vaccines for catch-up and high-risk populations
- Market influencers
- The increasing age of the population is a key driver for adult
vaccination
- Challenges are associated with the lack of homogeneity in the immune
status of adults and elderly
- New technologies better suited to vaccine design for the elderly are
emerging
- It will be challenging to achieve high turn-out rates for vaccination
among adults and elderly
- Increasing awareness of vaccine-preventable diseases will result in
greater interest in vaccination
- A private market could emerge for adult vaccines
- Strategies for maximum market penetration
- CHAPTER 3 PNEUMOCOCCAL VACCINATION IN ADULTS AND ELDERLY
- Summary
- Disease background
- Epidemiology
- Invasive pneumococcal disease is associated with high incidence and
death rates
- The elderly are at high risk of infection and show highest death rates
associated with invasive pneumococcal disease
- The introduction of childhood vaccination with Prevnar has also
reduced the incidence of invasive pneumococcal disease caused by vaccine
serotypes in the elderly
- Recommendations
- Coverage
- Comparator therapy: Pneumovax 23 (Merck & Co/Sanofi Aventis)
- Unmet needs
- Pipeline vaccines
- Prevnar 13 (Wyeth)
- Vaccine profile
- Clinical trial data
- Marketing factors
- Satisfaction of unmet needs
- Potential role in boosting
- Datamonitor vaccine assessment summary
- GlaxoSmithKline' s pneumococcal conjugate candidates
- Intercell' s pneumococcal vaccine
- Market opportunity and forecast
- Pneumococcal vaccination in elderly and adults has a significant
commercial potential
- Assumptions made for forecasting the pneumococcal vaccines market
- Country forecasts
- Six major markets
- US
- 5EU
- France
- Germany
- Italy
- Spain
- UK
- CHAPTER 4 ZOSTER VACCINES
- Summary
- Disease background
- Course of disease - shingles occurs upon reactivation of varicella
zoster virus
- Post-herpetic neuralgia is the most concerning complication of shingles
- Epidemiology
- In the western major markets, around 2 million people suffer from
herpes zoster infections every year
- So far, there is no clear evidence of an increase in shingles
incidence following routine infant varicella vaccination; however, more
data are needed
- Vaccination recommendations
- Cost-efficacy considerations
- Comparator therapy: Zostavax (Merck & Co)
- Vaccine profile
- Efficacy
- Safety
- Strengths and weaknesses
- Unmet needs
- Pipeline vaccines
- Market opportunity and forecast
- Historical sales performance
- Assumptions made for forecasting the zoster vaccines market
- Country forecasts
- Six major markets
- US
- 5EU
- France
- Germany
- Italy
- Spain
- UK
- CHAPTER 5 BOOSTER VACCINES
- Summary
- Current situation
- Recommended vaccines
- Currently marketed vaccines
- Future outlook
- Existing booster indications may be rolled out to additional countries
- New indications are likely to be added to the booster portfolio
- BIBLIOGRAPHY
- APPENDIX A
- Forecasts
- Forecast methodology
- Datamonitor forecast methodology
- Datamonitor' s patient-based forecasting model
- Limitations of the patient-based forecasting model
- APPENDIX B - MARKET FORECAST DATA
- Six major markets
- US
- 5EU
- France
- Germany
- Italy
- Spain
- UK
- APPENDIX C
- Contributing experts
- Report methodology
- About Datamonitor
- About Datamonitor Healthcare
- About the Infectious Diseases analysis team
- Key therapy team members
- Holger Rovini, Head of Respiratory and Infectious Diseases
- Hedwig Kresse, Senior Analyst, Infectious Diseases
- Disclaimer
- List of Tables
- Table 1: Routine and booster immunizations for adults and elderly in the
seven major markets, 2008
- Table 2: Vaccination recommended for adults and elderly as catch-up or
for risk groups only in the seven major markets, 2008
- Table 3: Diseases linked to S. pneumoniae
- Table 4: Recommendations for pneumococcal revaccination in adults and
elderly in the seven major markets, 2008
- Table 5: Pneumovax 23: key facts
- Table 6: Prevnar 13 - Vaccine overview
- Table 7: Prevnar 13 - Late-stage safety and efficacy trials in adults
and elderly naïve to pneumococcal vaccination
- Table 8: Prevnar 13 - Late-stage re-vaccination trials
- Table 9: Prevnar 13 - Late-stage trials for simultaneous vaccination
with Prevnar 13 and trivalent influenza vaccine
- Table 10: GlaxoSmithKline pneumococcal conjugate vaccine candidates -
clinical trials in adults/elderly, 2008
- Table 11: Forecast pneumococcal vaccines sales in adults and elderly
summary - six major markets, 2007-2017
- Table 12: Forecast pneumococcal vaccines in adults and elderly summary -
US, 2007-2017
- Table 13: Forecast pneumococcal vaccine sales in adults and elderly
summary - 5EU, 2007-2017
- Table 14: Forecast pneumococcal vaccines in adults and elderly summary -
France, 2007-2017
- Table 15: Forecast pneumococcal vaccines in adults and elderly summary -
Germany, 2007-2017
- Table 16: Forecast pneumococcal vaccines in adults and elderly summary -
Italy, 2007-2017
- Table 17: Forecast pneumococcal vaccines in adults and elderly - summary
- Spain, 2007-2017
- Table 18: Forecast pneumococcal vaccines in adults and elderly summary -
UK, 2007-2017
- Table 19: Herpes zoster incidence in the US and 5EU
- Table 20: Vaccination recommendations regarding varicella and herpes
zoster in the seven major markets, 2006
- Table 21: Zostavax: key facts
- Table 22: Zoster vaccines - pipeline
- Table 23: Zostavax market forecast - six major markets, 2007-2017
- Table 24: Zostavax market forecast - US, 2007-2017
- Table 25: Zostavax market forecast - 5EU, 2007-2017
- Table 26: Zostavax market forecast - France, 2007-2017
- Table 27: Zostavax market forecast - Germany, 2007-2017
- Table 28: Zostavax market forecast - Italy, 2007-2017
- Table 29: Zostavax market forecast - Spain, 2007-2017
- Table 30: Zostavax market forecast - UK, 2007-2017
- Table 31: Adolescent booster recommendations, seven major markets, 2008
- Table 32: Adult booster recommendations, seven major markets, 2008
- Table 33: Key marketed booster vaccines for adults and adolescents; 7MM,
2008
- Table 34: Vaccine profiles for Adacel and Boostrix
- Table 35: Six major markets pneumococcal and zoster vaccine sales ($m)
forecasts, 2007-2017
- Table 36: US pneumococcal and zoster vaccine sales ($m) forecasts,
2007-2017
- Table 37: 5EU pneumococcal and zoster vaccine sales ($m) forecasts,
2007-2017
- Table 38: France pneumococcal and zoster vaccine sales ($m) forecasts,
2007-2017
- Table 39: Germany pneumococcal and zoster vaccine sales ($m) forecasts,
2007-2017
- Table 40: Italy pneumococcal and zoster vaccine sales ($m) forecasts,
2007-2017
- Table 41: Spain pneumococcal and zoster vaccine sales ($m) forecasts,
2007-2017
- Table 42: UK pneumococcal and zoster vaccine sales ($m) forecasts,
2007-2017
- List of Figures
- Figure 1: Market growth cycle for vaccines
- Figure 2: Population aged 65 years and older in the seven major markets,
1998-2018
- Figure 3: Strategies for maximum market penetration of the adult
vaccination market
- Figure 4: Invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD) in the elderly in the
seven major markets, 2007
- Figure 5: Incidence of disease and case-fatality rate (CFR) of invasive
pneumococcal disease by age groups in Scotland, 1999-2001
- Figure 6: Pneumococcal disease - incidence and mortality of invasive
pneumococcal disease in the US, 2004
- Figure 7: Impact of Prevnar on incidence of invasive pneumococcal
disease in children and elderly, in the US, 1998/99 versus 2003
- Figure 8: Case and death rates linked to invasive pneumococcal disease
caused by all serotypes of S. pneumoniae by age group, in the US, 1999-2006
- Figure 9: Recommendations for adult pneumococcal vaccination in the
seven major markets, 2008
- Figure 10: Pneumococcal vaccination coverage by age group in the US,
1997-2006
- Figure 11: Pneumovax 23 - strengths and weaknesses
- Figure 12: Unmet needs in pneumococcal vaccination
- Figure 13: Prevnar 13 - study design of re-vaccination trials
- Figure 14: Pneumococcal booster strategies
- Figure 15: Prevnar 13 - SWOT analysis
- Figure 16: Forecast pneumococcal vaccines in adults and elderly by
country - six major markets, 2007-2017
- Figure 17: Forecast pneumococcal vaccines in adults and elderly by
population group - six major markets, 2007-2017
- Figure 18: Forecast pneumococcal vaccines in adults and elderly by brand
- six major markets, 2007-2017
- Figure 19: Forecast pneumococcal vaccines in adults and elderly by
population group - US, 2007-2017
- Figure 20: Forecast pneumococcal vaccines in adults and elderly by brand
- US, 2007-2017
- Figure 21: Forecast pneumococcal vaccines in adults and elderly by
population group - 5EU, 2007-2017
- Figure 22: Forecast pneumococcal vaccines in adults and elderly by brand
- 5EU, 2007-2017
- Figure 23: Forecast pneumococcal vaccines in adults and elderly by
population group - France, 2007-2017
- Figure 24: Forecast pneumococcal vaccines in adults and elderly by brand
- France, 2007-2017
- Figure 25: Forecast pneumococcal vaccines in adults and elderly by
population group - Germany, 2007-2017
- Figure 26: Forecast pneumococcal vaccines in adults and elderly by brand
- Germany, 2007-2017
- Figure 27: Forecast pneumococcal vaccines in adults and elderly by
population group - Italy, 2007-2017
- Figure 28: Forecast pneumococcal vaccines in adults and elderly by brand
- Italy, 2007-2017
- Figure 29: Forecast pneumococcal vaccines in adults and elderly by
population group - Spain, 2007-2017
- Figure 30: Forecast pneumococcal vaccines in adults and elderly by brand
- Spain, 2007-2017
- Figure 31: Forecast pneumococcal vaccines in adults and elderly by
population group - UK, 2007-2017
- Figure 32: Forecast pneumococcal vaccines in adults and elderly by brand
- UK, 2007-2017
- Figure 33: Varicella zoster virus infection - disease progression
- Figure 34: Herpes zoster incidence by age group in Madrid, Spain,
1997-2004
- Figure 35: Varicella and herpes zoster incidence in various age groups
in the US, 1992-2002
- Figure 36: Zostavax - efficacy in preventing herpes zoster infection by
age group
- Figure 37: Zostavax - efficacy in preventing post-herpetic neuralgia
(PHN) in patients who developed herpes zoster infection by age group
- Figure 38: Zostavax - duration of efficacy for preventing herpes zoster
and post-herpetic neuralgia (PHN) following vaccination
- Figure 39: Zostavax - sales 2006-Q1 2008
- Figure 40: Zostavax market forecast by country - six major markets,
2007-2017
- Figure 41: Zostavax market forecast - six major markets, 2007-2017
- Figure 42: Zostavax market forecast - US, 2007-2017
- Figure 43: Zostavax market forecast - 5EU, 2007-2017
- Figure 44: Zostavax market forecast - France, 2007-2017
- Figure 45: Zostavax market forecast - Germany, 2007-2017
- Figure 46: Zostavax market forecast - Italy, 2007-2017
- Figure 47: Zostavax market forecast - Spain, 2007-2017
- Figure 48: Zostavax market forecast - UK, 2007-2017
- Figure 49: Sanofi Pasteur - booster vaccine sales, 2002-07
- Figure 50: Pertussis notifications in England and Wales for over 5
year-olds, 1999-2007
- Figure 51: Datamonitor' s patient-based vaccine forecasting model -
influence factors
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